Can Affliction, Barnett Rebound from Latest Steroid Scandal?

As everyone most likely knows by now, Josh Barnett has been pulled from his much-anticipated Affliction: Trilogy bout with the world’s number one heavyweight, Fedor Emelianenko.  The reason?  Apparently a failed drug test, which has been reported by multiple sources over the last couple of days.  So now, Affliction has been scrambling to find a last-minute replacement while Barnett has been scrambling to make sense of the apparently surprising result and explain the situation to the media.  Will either be able to recover?

Affliction is definitely hurt more by this than anyone.  Each of Affliction’s three shows to date (of which “Trilogy” will be the third, go figure) has been a really massive undertaking for a company trying to get some momentum going in the business.  When each show represents months of planning for a fledgling company trying to compete with the UFC, WWE and professional boxing for fan’s PPV dollars, a setback such as a gimped main event can be huge.  If the UFC has a disappointing pay-per-view, they bounce back with another one in a few weeks time.  For Affliction, who probably will only have one more show this year as it is, it’s hard to say if they can recover if the buyrates and attendance aren’t up to snuff.

A lot of pundits have claimed that this is not a major setback, mostly due to what is perceived as a lack of awareness of Josh Barnett by the ever-elusive “average fan”.  I don’t know how much I buy into that.  I would guess that anyone who is more than vaguely aware of Fedor Emelianenko (and certainly, anyone who is motivated to buy a pay-per-view based on his participation) is also knowledgeable of who Josh Barnett is.  I’m doubtful that everyone who was thinking of buying the pay-per-view on August 1st is basing their entire opinion of Barnett on his admittedly sluggish and unimpressive win over the tough Gilbert Yvel in his last fight, either.

You just can’t put it any other way: this is very much a disaster for Affliction.  When their seemingly best option is to throw the world’s top heavyweight in there against a middleweight who is not currently near the top of his weight class, things have gotten very bad.  Why not throw either Gilbert Yvel or Paul Buentello in there?  Then, just find a substitute to fight whichever of those two doesn’t get the call.  At least then Fedor would be fighting someone in his weight class.  Hey, neither one is Josh Barnett, but neither is Vitor Belfort, who was two weeks away from fighting someone who would have weighed in 40-50 pounds lighter than Fedor will.

For Barnett, the big picture is much less dire.  It’s a setback in that he may not get another shot to beat a guy who is viewed by nearly everyone as the class of the heavyweight division, and it’s a financial setback in that he will miss out on one of Affliction’s famously generous paydays.  However, Barnett is massively popular in Japan, and could catch on in Strikeforce also, if need be.  He may not make what he would have made in Affliction, but that’s fine.

Why am I talking as if Affliction won’t exist?  Because Barnett will not just miss this fight.  He will be suspended, and as a repeat offender, he may be looking at a year before he can fight in the States again.  By that time, who knows what will have happened to Affliction?  For that matter, who knows what Fedor will be doing?  Maybe he’ll end up signing with the UFC after all, and Dana White has not exactly shown interest in signing Barnett in recent years.  This may have been Barnett’s only chance to fight Fedor.  Of course, whether Barnett will still be able to procure a successful wage as a professional fighter is not in question.  He definitely will, but he certainly missed a huge opportunity here.

If there’s a winner in all of this, perhaps it’s Vitor Belfort.  If the very strong rumors are true, Belfort will be the guy to step up and face Fedor Emelianenko.  Now, normally you wouldn’t call someone who gets the “opportunity” to fight the toughest heavyweight in the world on two weeks notice “lucky”.  However, this is clearly a different case.

Before this whole fiasco went down, Belfort was training to fight Jorge Santiago, a pretty good but relatively unheralded middleweight.  Looming on the horizon was another shot at the UFC and a short track to a title shot against Anderson Silva.  The UFC confirmed their interest by speculating publicly via a video package that Belfort would be an interesting test for Silva.  Meanwhile, Belfort said that he would definitely be interested in fighting for Zuffa again.

But what if the unthinkable happened, and Belfort was beaten by Santiago?  Then, that UFC contract suddenly goes up in thin air, and perhaps the Affliction one does, too.  Against Emelianenko, Belfort will not have to worry about any of that.

The UFC is not about to withdraw their interest because Belfort gets beaten by the top guy in a weight class far north of what Belfort usually competes in.  Meanwhile, if Belfort is somehow able to do the impossible and defeat Fedor, his value absolutely skyrockets.  He will suddenly be able to demand a lot more money from Lorenzo Fertitta, and will undoubtedly be shown a lot of gratitude from his new employers for beating the guy that they probably wouldn’t have been able to sign, anyway.  Then, Dana White can stop putting his hands over his ears while hardcore fans assert that none of his heavyweights could beat Fedor.

If Belfort is indeed the opponent, and he does anything besides get separated from consciousness in the first 2 minutes of the fight, he will come out looking great.  If he can somehow make the fight competitive, even in a loss, his value skyrockets.

As for Affliction?  They will be crossing their fingers for sure.  Losing a big-money fight hurts when you only put on about three events per year.

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Anderson Silva, Dana White, Fedor Emelianenko, Josh Barnett, Strikeforce, UFC, Vitor Belfort