Can Shogun Quiet the Doubters Next Weekend?

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was once considered by many in the know to be the top light heavyweight in the world.  While Chuck Liddell was going on a tear through the UFC’s light heavyweight division, Shogun was doing the same in Japan’s Pride Fighting Championships, while facing debatably better competition than the Iceman was going up against.

Sure, Chuck fought some fighters that were in the top ten at the time, such as Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Renato “Babalu” Sobral, but he also faced Vernon “Tiger” White and Jeremy Horn, who was at the time considered by many to be a top ten middleweight, but was fighting far out of his weight class against Liddell.  Meanwhile, Shogun was facing such fighters as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and Ricardo Arona and not just beating them, but absolutely destroying them.  Then, a freak injury resulted from a Mark Coleman takedown when Rua unwisely posted his arm and hurt his elbow, which resulted in a 7 month hiatus and a loss to the Brazilian’s momentum.

Of course, Shogun reeled off another four wins in a row after that, including wins against Kevin Randleman and Alistair Overeem, but there was also a relatively unimpressive decision win over Kazuhiro Nakamura mixed in there.  While many still thought of Shogun as a top 3 light heavyweight, the hype train had definitely slowed down a bit since the Coleman fight.

When Shogun came to the UFC at last, everyone was excited to see what he would bring to the table.  Those who had watched Pride were bragging to their less knowledgeable friends about what this guy was going to do to Forrest Griffin at UFC 76, in a fight that seemed like a huge mismatch at the time.  I even joked that it should have been called “UFC 76: Public Execution”, between that and the main event between Chuck Liddell and Keith Jardine, which also resulted in a big upset.

We all know what happened with the Forrest fight.  Shogun didn’t look like himself, Forrest fought well and didn’t shy away from taking the fight to him, and Rua ended up gassing and getting tapped late in the third round of a fight he would have lost by decision, anyway.  Sure, Forrest has since moved on to show that he’s a very good fighter, which makes the loss look better, as does the revelation afterward that Shogun was badly in need of knee surgery, but it’s still been hard for MMA fans to trust Shogun to return to his old form.

The Mark Coleman rematch, 16 months after Shogun’s UFC debut, did little to calm the nerves of worried Shogun fans.  Rua dominated Coleman, but couldn’t put the admittedly tough veteran away, even as “The Hammer” had obviously tired to the point of exhaustion.  When Shogun did put his rival away late in the third round, he almost looked as tired as Coleman did, and the fight had become a pretty sloppy affair.  In Shogun’s last fight, he knocked out Chuck Liddell quickly, but the shortness of the bout along with doubts regarding Liddell’s current ability level have made it hard to put that win into perspective.

So, here we are, unsure what to think of Shogun.  He’s hard to even rank, as he hasn’t had a truly impressive win over an opponent without any question marks surround him in years.  Also, has Shogun regained any of the explosiveness that allowed him to overwhelm his foes in 2004 and 2005- the explosiveness that Shogun admitted himself that he had lost for some time due to his knee injuries?  It got to the point where MMA fans were analyzing Shogun’s every move to find evidence of the “old Shogun” being back.  I remember one fan on an MMA forum who excitedly instructed everyone to “watch how Shogun explodes into the knockout punch against Liddell”, as if he had found indisputable evidence that the great mystery of the disappearing Brazilian had been solved at last.

Still, you can’t really compare Shogun to someone like Vitor Belfort, at least not in terms of where they stand in their respective divisions.  Sometimes you have to remind yourself that this is a guy who has lost exactly three times in his MMA career- once to Renato “Babalu” Sobral in his fifth career MMA fight, once due to the injury against Coleman, and once to a future UFC Light Heavyweight Champion.  It’s really pretty remarkable that a fighter with only two career losses and wins over the likes of Rampage, Overeem, Nogueira, Arona and Liddell has so much doubt surrounding him, honestly.

Perhaps some of it has to do with what I touched on regarding the Liddell fight…so many of Shogun’s best performances have been absolutely dominant stoppages that occurred early in fights that it is sometimes hard to really see what Shogun’s got.  Is he someone that just overwhelms opponents?  What happens if he fights someone with the tactical ability and patience to counter his aggression?  We’ve seen Shogun in the later rounds of fights, and it usually hasn’t given us the best impression of Rua.

The good news is that if Shogun really wants a chance to prove what he’s got, he’s been granted it.  In front of him next weekend will stand Lyoto Machida, the mysterious UFC Light Heavyweight Champion who brings with him a 15-0 record and a record of almost unbelievable dominance in his UFC tenure.  No one can seem to even hit Machida, let alone hurt him.  You hear all the superlatives and stories about this guy, such as how he has never lost a round in his UFC career.  If ever there was a measuring stick that Shogun could use to show that he belongs at the top of his weight class again, Machida is it.

Shogun will be able to not only prove that he has what it takes to beat a fighter who is probably even more quick and explosive than he is, but one that has a style tailor-made to counter Shogun’s aggressiveness, as well.  There’s no doubt about it…Shogun has a very difficult night ahead of him next weekend.  Of course, with great risk comes the possibility of great reward, and if Shogun can put away the king of a turbulent division filled with tough fighters and unpredictable storylines, who would be able to deny him the distinction of being the best in the world at 205 pounds?

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Chuck Liddell, Forrest Griffin, Keith Jardine, Lyoto Machida, Mark Coleman, Randy Couture, Tito Ortiz, UFC, Vitor Belfort