Fedor vs. Rogers: Preview

It’s being billed as a “Rocky” story, as the world’s top heavyweight, Fedor Emelianenko takes on Brett Rogers, a man who has been changing tires at Sam’s Club until only a few months ago. This won’t be the first time that a promoter has tried to market the fight as with a “Rocky” storyline, but most of these fights have wound up just as expected. Can Rogers really beat Fedor?

Fedor Emelianenko really does deserve his title as the top heavyweight in the world. He’s earned it by defeating many of the best heavyweight fighters in the world over the past five years or so. Among the vanquished are Mark Coleman twice, Kevin Randleman, Rodrigo Nogueira twice, Mirko Cro Cop, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski.

His only loss was nine years ago, and that was due to a cut. He would go on to easily avenge that loss five years later. But enough about Fedor, let’s talk about the challenger.

Brett Rogers is 28 years old, but professional MMA career began only three years ago. Rogers hasn’t wasted any time though, compiling a 10-0 record over the last three years, with only two of those fights making it out of the first round.

Despite the undefeated record, Rogers is still considered to be an unproven commodity. Most of his wins have come against unheralded competition. He certainly put himself on the map when he knocked out former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski in 22 seconds. That’s a big win, but Arlovski isn’t exactly known for the strength of his chin. Had the fight lasted at least a few minutes, we might have gotten a better idea of what Rogers striking looks like against an elite fighter. As it stands, all we know is that he can hurt people if he catches them.

The jump up in competition for Rogers is dramatic to say the least. Rogers has been fighting outside of the spotlight for most of his career for small paydays. He had kept his day job until recently in order to pay the bills and support his family. If he beats Fedor this week, he won’t need to go back to his day job ever again.

Can he do it?

Rogers certainly has enough knockout power to hurt any fighter who decides to stand in front of him, but despite Fedor’s aggressive style and unorthodox striking, he’s statistically one of the least-hit fighters in MMA history. To put that into perspective, consider that he has been hit less frequently than Lyoto Machida, considered the most elusive fighter in the game. The statistics don’t reflect the fact that Fedor hasn’t always fought top competition, but are impressive nonetheless.

But while Rogers can knock Fedor out, it’s probably more likely for Fedor to be knocking out Rogers. An early knockout is simply Rogers’s only way to win this one. Every other aspect of the fight gives Fedor a big advantage.

Should Fedor decide to grapple with Rogers, he will be matching up his world-class Sambo skills against a guy who has very little background in wrestling. Rogers has done well keeping the fight standing against lesser fighters, but has never had to deal with someone with so much grappling skill.

If the fight goes to the ground, Rogers’s chances look bleak. Fedor is relentless with strikes from the top position, and is just as dangerous with submissions from the bottom. Nobody has seen Rogers ground game yet, but it simply can’t be that good.

In case you’ve forgotten, the film Rocky ended with the protagonist taking the heavyweight champion to a brutal and hard-fought decision. This result is simply not going to happen when Fedor faces Brett Rogers.

These fighters are both too aggressive and too powerful to let that happen. Rogers can beat Fedor, but only if he catches him with a big shot early for a knockout win. It wouldn’t be like Rocky. It would be more like Matt Serra.

So far, nobody has been able to do this, but it’s not entirely unprecedented. Fedor was rocked hard by Kazuyuki Fujita and Andrei Arlovski, but managed to turn those matches around in dramatic fashion. Nobody can keep on doing that forever.

A few weeks ago, the world saw that even Lyoto Machida can be hit, albeit not a lot. The aura of a fighter is simply the public perception that a fighter is unbeatable. Despite the insistent words and forum postings of thousands of feverish fans, no fighter is actually unbeatable.

Not even Fedor.

By Darren Wong for FightMania.com

Tags: Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fedor Emelianenko, Lyoto Machida, Mark Coleman, Matt Serra, Mirko Cro Cop, Tim Sylvia, UFC