How Can Diego Sanchez Beat BJ Penn?

This Saturday, Diego Sanchez  comes into his fight against BJ Penn as a fairly large underdog. Not a lot of people are giving Diego much of a chance against BJ Penn and they have their good reasons. What these odds-makers are neglecting is the fact that Diego Sanchez is perhaps the  best and most well-rounded lightweight fighter BJ Penn has ever faced.

Another thing to consider is that the last time there was a huge favorite in a UFC main event was when Machida faced off against Shogun. Machida won, but it was razor close. If Shogun can almost beat Machida, then Sanchez can beat Penn.

Don’t get me wrong: The task for Sanchez is a daunting one. BJ Penn is considered to be technically superior in almost every way. Nevertheless, I think that it would be wrong to underestimate Sanchez in this fight. Here’s how Sanchez can beat BJ Penn:

As soon as the fight begins, Sanchez will already be in a disadvantageous position. BJ Penn is the better boxer of the two, and even if he gets hit, he’s shown that he isn’t easily fazed by a punch. Sanchez, on the other hand, isn’t the most technical of punchers, although he as fared well on the feet against guys like Joe Stevenson, Clay Guida, and Luigi Fioravante.

If Sanchez is going to win the stand-up battle, it’s not going to be by turning the fight into a boxing match. Sanchez tends to throw loopy punches, which will be easily exploited by Penn’s jab. Using the jab, Penn can control the rhythm of the fight, which will take away another possible advantage for Sanchez, conditioning.

Success in the stand-up will come from pushing the pace and being able to do a few things to get through Penn’s defense. Initiating clinches and pushing Penn against the fence didn’t work too well for Kenny Florian, but I still believe a similar tactic could be effective for Sanchez. Florian was able to push Penn against the fence, but he didn’t do anything when he was there. If Sanchez is able to use the clinch to land some strikes to Penn’s body and legs, that damage will help tire out Penn, and pay dividends in the later rounds, as well as accumulate some crucial points.

Outside of the clinch, Sanchez should be fairly out-matched in general, but he might still be able to find success with a few properly executed tactics. Penn tends to not check leg kicks, and landing them against Penn should serve to slow him down and limit his movement, making him an easier target.

If Sanchez is going to employ leg kicks, he will need to be mindful of BJ’s countering, but employing the leg kicks with some discretion should give Sanchez a chance of taking away some of Penn’s advantage on the feet.

In terms of wrestling, Sanchez has a very difficult task. He’s going to need to set up his takedowns very well, and more importantly, avoid being taken down by BJ. There are few worse places to be in MMA than on one’s back with BJ Penn in top position. Takedown defense will be key to Sanchez’s survival.

Once again though, the key in the wrestling exchanges will need to be in making sure that BJ is being forced to work just as hard or harder than Sanchez. If Sanchez is doing all of the work, then he’ll just be tiring himself out, which will not end will for him.

If the fight does go to the floor, then things will get interesting.

Penn has one some of the best BJJ in the world from the top position, so if he gets Sanchez on his back, Sanchez is in some real danger. If he does get there, he’ll need to escape quickly, or reverse position and get on top, because otherwise Penn will once again be able to control the pace.

If Sanchez is able to survive on the ground with Penn for a few rounds without taking too much damage, or getting too tired, Sanchez might be able to have more success against a tiring Penn.

If Sanchez does manage to get to top position, a conservative approach is probably the best one. Repeated scrambles give Penn the chance of landing a reversal. Judges tend to favor the fighter in top position, so if Sanchez can get top position, he should let Penn do the work, and go about maintaining his advantage rather than looking for a submission which is very unlikely against a former BJJ world champion like Penn.

The longer Penn remains in bottom position, the more tired he will become, especially if Sanchez is still able to score strikes to the body.

If Sanchez is able to execute these things perfectly, doing damage to BJ’s body should pay dividends in the later rounds, where he can start taking real control of the action. BJ Penn is notoriously hard to finish, so it’s likely the case that Sanchez will have to be satisfied with a close and hard-fought decision.

It won’t be easy, to say the least, but Diego has a chance.

By Darren Wong for FightMania.com