Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Kharitonov Preview

Strikeforce has been through some strange times since Zuffa purchased the promotion. Both Alistair Overeem and Nick Diaz have left Strikeforce under very different circumstances, but also have had very different resolutions to their journeys to the UFC. Meanwhile, a welterweight championship needs to be crowned, and Overeem has left a huge hole in the much-anticipated heavyweight grand prix, which continues this Saturday.

While Overeem was initially set to take on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in what would have been a great fight, he pulled out when the date of the fight was moved forward into September, saying he wouldn’t have been ready. He was freed from his contract and entered an exclusive negotiating period with Zuffa, which has led to him making his UFC debut against Brock Lesnar in a few months. In the meanwhile, former wrestling standout Daniel Cormier takes on a literally tall task in the form of Bigfoot himself. Here are my thoughts and predictions for this Saturday’s card.

Roger Gracie vs. Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal

Gracie is a very talented fighter, especially on the mat where he is most at home, but has fought sparingly since he debuted in 2006, as this will be just his fifth career MMA fight. He has picked it up a bit over the last 16 months, as he will have fought three times since last May once this one is over. To get his hand raised, he will have to show improved standup and work hard to get a submission when King Mo inevitably takes the fight to the mat.

Lawal has been saying that he will use the takedown if it presents itself, which surprises me. Maybe throughout his training, he has reached a level of comfort with defending submissions. However, Gracie is not your usual jiu-jitsu practitioner, or even your usual black belt. He has superlative technique and can make quick work of a relative newbie like Lawal, if the opportunity presents itself.

I expect Lawal to be the better of the two while standing, but Lawal’s apparent stubbornness will hurt him when he refuses to shy away from the mat. Combine that with his tendency to gas late in fights, and there’s a good chance that Gracie can pull off a nice win here.

Prediction: Gracie by submission

Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza vs. Luke Rockhold

Rockhold steps out of the Challengers series in a big way to take on Jacare for his middleweight title. He does so as a sizable underdog due to both his relative inexperience as a still somewhat unknown commodity and because of Jacare’s standing as one of the elite 185-pounders in the world.

Will Rockhold have much for Jacare? Maybe, but I don’t think that it will be enough. Jacare is a very well-rounded fighter, better standing up and more athletic than many of his high-level jiu-jitsu contemporaries. Because of this, he does much better against strong, American wrestlers than some of Brazil’s jiu-jitsu players have in the past.

I don’t expect Rockhold to roll over for Jacare, and Rockhold is no slouch on the mat himself. However, Jacare is just at another level, and will be aggressive from the word “go” as he works to bring the fight to the mat where he can do his magic once again. Rockhold may find himself in this position again in the future, but for now, it’s too early.

Prediction: Jacare by submission

Daniel Cormier vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva

A decidedly less-exciting fight than the originally-slated matchup between Silva and Alistair Overeem, this one pits former wrestling standout Cormier against a man whose nickname truly fits. Silva, of course, won his way to the second round in spectacular fashion by giving Fedor Emelianenko the only real beating he’s ever had in his MMA career.

Cormier gets props for taking this bout, but I have a lot of doubts about him at this weight. He’s too small and would appear to be a better fit at light heavyweight, if he could lose the extra weight he’s carrying. Furthermore, he won’t just be giving up a size advantage to Bigfoot, but a skill advantage as well. With the exception of wrestling, Silva is more skilled in every area of the game, especially when it comes to striking.

Could Cormier take Silva down? Perhaps, but that’s only part of the battle. He must then stay active and out of trouble while not allowing Silva to get back up. Doing so will take a lot of energy, and Cormier has already shown a somewhat limited gas tank. I just think that Silva pours it on here and keeps his distance most of the time to avoid takedowns, en route to a resounding win.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov

The other semifinal goes forth as planned, as Barnett advanced by quickly dominating Brett Rogers and Kharitonov likewise rolled through Andrei Arlovski. (Fun fact: of the four fighters who lost in the first round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, three of them were already out of Strikeforce well before this weekend’s semi-finals.)

I like Kharitonov a lot and I hope sticks around if he loses this one. Barnett will present a lot of problems because he is not picky by how he gets the fight to the mat, and once he does, he has a rare combination of control and submission acumen that is still not often seen in the sport.

Kharitonov should be focusing on keeping his distance and keeping his combinations quick and crisp. He can afford to plant his feet when counter-punching, but otherwise should be ready to sprawl or circle away as necessary. Still, I can’t see Barnett being unable to take Kharitonov down fairly regularly, and his standup should be good enough to allow him to put some doubt in the judges’ minds. In the end, I think Kharitonov makes it much more of a fight than people are expecting, though I believe he will lose a close decision, nonetheless.

Prediction: Barnett by decision

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Tags: Alistair Overeem, Antonio Silva, Daniel Cormier, Josh Barnett, Luke Rockhold, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, Roger Gracie, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Sergei Kharitonov, Strikeforce