Strikeforce Evolution Preview and Picks

Strikeforce’s cards, while still not always on par with the best of the UFC’s offerings, have definitely been must-see TV for any MMA fan. Tonight’s show (“Evolution”) is no exception, as anyone with Showtime will definitely want to catch the fights, and those without it…well, should be heading to a friend’s house to leech off of their premium cable, I suppose. With a long-awaited title fight, the return of a former champion and the debut of one of the fastest-rising prospects in the game, Strikeforce Evolution shouldn’t be missed.

Muhammed Lawal vs. Mike Whitehead

It’s hard to think of a fighter who has put together the kind of winning streak that Whitehead has (15 wins out of his last 16 fights) and still remains unheralded. Whitehead’s six career losses are mostly against big names (Renato “Babalu” Sobral, Keith Jardine, Brandon Vera, twice in his first four fights against Tim Sylvia), and he has beaten a few big names, too. However, his last win, against a version of Kevin Randleman that is less and less recognizable when referencing his days as a UFC champion, left a lot to be desired. While Whitehead provides a tough fight for almost anyone, it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects against top competition.

Meanwhile, Lawal (aka “King Mo”) is a successful wrestler with an international background that has not been pushed so hard in his first five career fights. Lawal has been smart in taking his first few fights slowly, against foes such as Fabio Silva and Mark Kerr (2009 version). Lawal’s toughest test was actually his first fight, when he impressively dispatched veteran Travis Wiuff in just a few minutes by TKO.

There’s no reason Lawal shouldn’t be able to do the same in this fight, though Whitehead’s forty-plus pound weight advantage could slow things down a bit. If Whitehead can hang on in the opening minutes and “ugly up” the fight, he could drag it to a decision, but even that would likely end up in Lawal’s favor.

Prediction: Lawal by TKO

Matt Lindland vs. Ronaldo Souza

Lindland, once ranked by many as the number one fighter in the middleweight division, has lost three fights out of his last seven, though the fighters he lost to were Vitor Belfort, Fedor Emelianenko and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (in a razor-thin decision, no less). Still, Lindland has won ten of his last thirteen overall, and has only one loss inside his natural weight class in that span, too. Lindland remains an excellent strategist who may not have the most exciting style, but definitely belongs among the top fighters in the world in one of the two top stateside promotions.

Meanwhile, Souza (aka “Jacare”) is one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu grapplers in the world, and has been very successful in his short MMA career this far, with a 10-2 record (and ten straight wins before his loss by KO to a Gegard Mousasi upkick). In a fight like this, Lindland’s strengths put him right up against Jacare’s strengths, which is a dangerous proposition. Lindland can win a decision or often pound out a TKO against lesser fighters with his style, but he won’t be able to finish Jacare. Meanwhile, Jacare will be a threat to submit Lindland at a moment’s notice. Lindland has to pitch a no-hitter to win this one, and I don’t think that will happen.

Prediction: Jacare by submission

Josh Thomson vs. Gilbert Melendez (Strikeforce Lightweight Championship

We’ve seen this fight once before, when Thomson shocked many in the MMA world by dominating Melendez with excellent takedown defense and his refined standup skills. Of course, that was a year and a half ago, and Thomson is coming off of a long layoff due to injury. Meanwhile, Melendez has been impressive in wins over Rodrigo Damm and Mitsuhiro Ishida, and is chomping at the bit for another shot at Thomson.

The question here is whether Melendez can take Thomson down, at least enough to either win a decision or force a stoppage of some sort. In the first fight, the answer was a resounding “no”, but will that be the case again? Melendez has been very impressive in his standup over his last two bouts, but make no mistake about it, he has not closed the gap enough that he can win a prolonged standup war against Thomson, who has many more weapons and a more well-rounded approach.

One large question here will be whether Thomson will be able to meet the considerable pace that Melendez is likely to set, as one of the biggest keys for Melendez is to test the cardio of Thomson right out of the gate. If he can do so and keep the pressure on, perhaps he can turn the tide later in the bout and take advantage. The problem is though, if Melendez can’t take Thomson down with any kind of prolonged success, how will he wear him out? Melendez is likely to use more energy attempting to bring Thomson to the mat than Thomson is likely to use staying off of it. In the end, it will be more competitive than last time, but with the same final result.

Prediction: Thomson by decision

Cung Le vs. Scott Smith

There is really no re-cap of Cung Le’s career necessary; most everyone is well-versed on his relinquishment of his middleweight title due to his pursuit of Hollywood stardom. Strangely enough, just weeks after a new champion was crowned, here’s Le to take on Scott Smith! It’s strange to see that he would give up his title in those circumstances- Strikeforce surely would have waited an extra month or two to see the champion actually defend his title. Perhaps, as many say, fighting “the best” really isn’t so important to him? After all, champions can’t always hand-pick the most interesting (or favorable) fights: part-time fighters with borderline celebrity status can.

Smith’s gameplan is obvious from the get-go: barring a takedown, he will be looking to put Le’s lights out with the power in his hands. Le does not boast that kind of knockout power, but he does have the most precise kicks in the business, and he works them into his combinations creatively and seamlessly. Still, he doesn’t seem to have the kind of power in his quick and snappy kicks to put somone out with one strike. Wait a minute, though…Nick Diaz doesn’t seem to have that kind of “big power” either, and he put Smith away. The point here is that Le doesn’t need to hit one big shot to win…he can overwhelm Smith with many shots to win, too.

I see the fight playing out with Smith chasing Le around and taking a lot of punishment as he looks to land big punches. Will he be able to? Only time will tell, but I think that the odds favor Le either out-pointing Smith over three rounds or working the body and head with kicks en route to a late TKO.

Prediction: Le by decision

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