Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson Preview

Tonight Strikeforce will present a fight that I’m told we “want very much” as Fedor Emelianenko will take on Dan Henderson in the main event of a solid card on Showtime. Funny, the same sources also inform me that I “no longer have any interest in seeing Alistair Overeem compete” and that “Antonio Silva vs. Daniel Cormier is a better fight, anyway”. No…no, no NO! Stop trying to brainwash us, Scott Coker!

That aside, I suppose Fedor-Hendo should be a good scrap. I have no doubt that their styles will make for entertaining action, but it just doesn’t have that special something to really make me anticipate the bout. Relevance? I don’t know. Still, it’s a good card and we have nothing better to watch, anyway, so let’s get on with the preview!

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Scott Smith

Both fighters will hope to get on the winning track again in a fight that should be quite entertaining. Saffiedine was last seen getting laid on by Tyron Woodley in a fight that (spoiler alert!) looked a lot like Woodley’s bout tonight with Paul Daley will. Meanwhile, Smith has been stopped his last two times out, first by Cung Le and then in his welterweight debut against Daley.

Let’s sum this one up in a nutshell. You have a guy with good overall standup and a nice variety of weapons that uses combos well. Then, you have a guy with tons of heart but that doesn’t mind getting the crap beat out of him will looking for one big shot to end it. Oh, and the second guy is also fighting a weight class below where he should be and might not look very good as a result of being drained.

Pretty clear, right? And I’m sure you knew which guy was which, also. Saffiedine just has too much and Smith puts too much stock into landing the big killshot. It could happen as it has several times in the past, but Saffiedine is the sensible pick.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

There’s only one thing I need to know here. Has Daley increased his takedown defense? No? He hasn’t? Well, then this is one of the more obvious picks one could ever be asked to make. On what planet does Woodley stupidly stand with Daley for more than 1.3 seconds before taking him down each and every round en route to an easy win? I don’t know, but it’s certainly not this planet, because that’s exactly what’s going to happen.

Could Daley land a big shot that changes the fight? Sure, but he’ll only have the briefest of windows to do so, because Woodley isn’t going to play with him. And as we saw against Josh Koscheck, Daley will likely be so worried about defending takedowns that he won’t even swing for the fences when he has the opportunity. That’s a mistake in my opinion, because he’s not going to be able to stop the takedowns, anyway. Why lose without ever having taken a real swing when your only hope is a KO?

The only reason to watch this one is to see if we get some more classic Daley antics as the fight goes on and he grows more and more frustrated. Woodley will wear Daley out and maybe finish him late with ground strikes.

Prediction: Woodley by KO/TKO

Tim Kennedy vs. Robbie Lawler

This is one of those matchups where you’re tempted to say “if the fight goes the distance, it favors fighter A, and if it doesn’t, fighter B probably wins.” Well, you might say that if you didn’t realize what a nonsensical thing that is to say. What kind of sense does that make, after all? The minute that the last second of the fifteenth minute ticks off, the one fighter becomes the favorite regardless of what has happened? If the other guy can knock out or submit the fighter A, why can’t he win a decision?

Anyway, Kennedy is what a lazy person like myself would call a “grinder”, mostly because we don’t want to come up with our own term. He’s going to look to close the distance and stay out of trouble against the heavy-handed Lawler while controlling him against the cage a la Randy Couture (“Handy” if you’re Brazilian). Lawler will, well…he’ll try to not let that happen, right? I mean, obviously.

In all seriousness, the problem with Kennedy’s likely game plan is that Lawler is big and strong enough to avoid being muscled around. He has good balance in standing clinch situations and is hard to toss to the mat from the clinch. Meanwhile, while he prefers standing and striking at distance, he has dangerous power in close, too. His defensive wrestling may likely negate any attempts of Kennedy to take the fight to the mat.

Which leads us to a dangerous fight for Kennedy where there is no real safe place for him to ply his trade. In that case, it’s just a matter of time.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Women’s Welterweight Championship
Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

Liz Carmouche’s loss is Tate’s gain in this fight, as there is a 100% chance that Tate will simply follow the blueprint that Carmouche laid in her fight with Coenen, where she was doing quite well before being submitted by a fourth-round triangle choke.

Tate will try not to get Carmouche’d in this one (or maybe “Sonnen’d” is better?) and I think she’ll have a better chance. For one, she is possibly a stronger wrestler and should be able to control Coenen’s hips better, especially in the later rounds. Also, I think that Tate will be justifiably cautious of Coenen’s submission game throughout the fight, which Carmouche obviously wasn’t as she got in a comfort zone and let her guard down in the later rounds.

Don’t expect to see much standing and striking, as both will be perfectly happy on the mat. Coenen would obviously rather be on top, but I don’t see much chance of that happening. Meanwhile, Tate will use strikes to allow her to set up deceptive, quick takedowns. From there, it’s a question of whether she can get through the fight without being subbed. I think she can and she’ll win by late TKO.

Prediction: Tate by KO/TKO

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

You hear the “two legends” stuff all the time, but this one is very much the real thing, as two first ballot Hall of Famers (though not UFC Hall of Famers, since neither are good buddies of Dana White) square off tonight.

At first glance, this is a tough fight to call. After all, the two fight basically identically, at least when the fight is standing. Both even like to use the clinch in similar ways, striking ably and using leverage for throws and clinch takedowns. On the mat, there are some differences as Fedor has a pretty slick submission game that Hendo lacks, but Henderson is more than capable of fending off submissions after all of his years in the sport.

Where this one may differ in terms of people’s predictions will be when asking two questions: “How much does Fedor have left in him?” and “How much will the size difference matter?”

Now, Fedor hasn’t looked too good in his last two fights, but I wonder if people aren’t writing him off too soon. All this retirement talk seems very hasty when one fight consisted of just poor grappling on Fedor’s part and the other was just Fedor getting beaten at his own game by a much bigger opponent. I’m not saying the losses don’t mean anything, but they don’t mean he doesn’t have anything left to offer.

What about the size factor? Well, we all know Hendo fears no man, but five of his eight career losses have come against bigger opponents. Hendo is certainly one of the greatest middleweight MMA fighters of all-time, but when he’s chosen to step up in weight he has had trouble against elite competition such as the Nogueira brothers, “Rampage” Jackson and years ago, Wanderlei Silva.

Try as I can, I don’t really see either fighter rocking the other. It’s a possibility with the wild swinging style that both love and stubbornly stick to, but both have pretty solid chins so it doesn’t seem like the smartest pick. Where we may see a difference is in terms of who can control the other man and who can put everything together better. Even that is hard to call, but I’d give a slight edge to Fedor there. To be honest, this is one of the toughest fights of the year so far to pick. I’ll go with Fedor, because I think he’s a better heavyweight than Hendo. Seems logical, right?

Prediction: Fedor by decision

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Tags: Dan Henderson, Fedor Emelianenko, Marloes Coenen, Miesha Tate, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Scott Smith, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson, Tarec Saffiedine, Tim Kennedy, Tyron Woodley