Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Silva Preview

It’s been awhile, but Fedor Emelianenko returns to action tonight. On Strikeforce’s latest Showtime-televised card, the former Pride champ will take on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva in an opening round heavyweight tournament matchup. Meanwhile, two other tournament combatants will face off as former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski takes on Sergei Kharitonov. Here are my thoughts on tonight’s bouts, which begin in just a couple of hours.

Chad Griggs vs. Gian Villante

This fight will function as a reserve bout for the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. Griggs is definitely best known for giving Bobby Lashley his first career loss awhile back, while Villante is not someone I’ve seen in action much, at least outside of the wonderful research tool known as “YouTube”.

Griggs may at first seem to be far better off in terms of experience; he has beaten Bobby Lashley and has been fighting for five years. However, the Lashley win was not exactly a dominant one- had there not been a horrible standup while Lashley had mounted Griggs in round two, who knows what could have happened? The rest of Griggs’ opponents aren’t much more impressive than Villante’s, which is a given with the lack of depth at heavyweight in regional shows.

Where Griggs has shown something is in terms of composure and cardio. He’s a fairly effective striker and less wild than Villante is. Villante, however, has the decisive edge in athleticism and most likely, strength as well…despite giving up some weight to Griggs. It would be easy, especially seeing how Griggs survived against Lashley, to call for a Griggs win where he merely outlasts Villante. However, I’m going to go with the man whom I think is more talented and a better athlete and say Villante will stop Griggs.

Prediction: Villante by KO/TKO

Valentijn Overeem vs. Ray Sefo

The second of the three reserve bouts will pit Alistair Overeem’s older brother, Valentijn, against K-1 standout Ray Sefo. This one is simply not going to decision. If Sefo doesn’t knock Overeem out, he will almost certainly be submitted.

It’s hard to gauge where Sefo will be at. Not only is he getting on in years, but he hasn’t fought in nearly a year and a half. He’s trained at Xtreme Couture during that time, further complicating things. Will he have learned enough to survive on the mat or even submit Overeem if it comes to that (Overeem has been tapped by everyone from Gilbert Yvel to Achmed Labasanov)? Furthermore, Overeem isn’t exactly a rookie when it comes to striking, so a Sefo KO may be likely in a standup bout, but anything can happen.

I’ll go ahead and call for an upset here, with Sefo staying out of trouble before putting Overeem away.

Prediction: Sefo by KO/TKO

Lavar Johnson vs. Shane del Rosario

These two are familiar to anyone who’s watched their share of the Strikeforce “Challengers” series. Both similarly sized, Johnson is more of a brawler who hits hard but may have trouble staying vertical against talented opponents. Del Rosario is a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable on the mat.

I think del Rosario has the edge in athleticism and will be able to stay out of trouble until he can safely execute his game plan. There’s always a sizable chance that Johnson could land a titanic shot and end del Rosario’s night, but isn’t that always the case with heavyweights? I’ll go the safe route here and trust my head, which says that del Rosario fights a smart bout and submits Johnson at some point.

Prediction: del Rosario by submission

Andrei Arlovski vs. Sergei Kharitonov

This is a sneaky-good matchup that would have been highly-anticipated back in 2005, before Arlovski’s chin repeatedly failed him and Kharitonov adapted a once-per-year fighting schedule when Pride closed its doors. It’s still got everything you need for a great fight, and these two are not as far outside the top ten as many would think they are…they certainly aren’t done being relevant by any stretch of the imagination.

This figures to be a stand-up battle, though Arlovski would have a slight edge on the mat in my book if the fight was to go there. I think Arlovski is the better boxer, and it’s a shame that we haven’t gotten to see his training with Freddie Roach pay off in the cage like it has in the gym. Now, Arlovski has become a full-fledged Jackson’s MMA fighter, and will hopefully have the focus and smart gameplan that Jackson’s fighters have been known to show.

Kharitonov is a solid striker who uses his kicks well and blends techniques together effectively. He’s got a solid chin and has plenty of experience, as does Arlovski. Where this fight becomes interesting is the mental aspect. Does Arlovski have the focus and drive to fight a smart fight and step it up a notch if he is under-performing and dropping rounds? I’ve told myself in the past that I was done picking fighters who have been head cases in the past, but I’ll be damned if I’m not doing that exact thing here. I’ll show some faith that Arlovski is closer to meeting his potential than ever before, and that his time at Jackson’s will help him use his athleticism and boxing en route to a win.

Prediction: Arlovski by decision

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Antonio Silva

Fedor may have lost his first fight in years, but he still has the proverbial bull’s eye attached to him at all times: it’s impossible for an opponent not to “get up” for a bout with him. Silva is going to be focused, motivated and ready tonight, and he’s a dangerous man. His size is a huge advantage against nearly all opponents, and he is deceptively well-rounded with good striking and great top control on the mat.

However, his strengths coincide with many of Fedor’s. Fedor may be the most well-rounded heavyweight in MMA, and not only is he extremely hard to take down, but he will survive and even threaten from the bottom position when needed. Just as how Fedor’s best attributes can’t be rated according to video game-y characteristics such as power, speed, wrestling ability, and so on, he excels at the little things. For instance, during scrambles, he seems to always get the better of things positionally.

He will be prepared for Silva to rush in aggressively as he has done in recent fights, and is terrific at maintaining composure and exploiting mistakes made by such tactics, which he’s shown many times in the past. He can finish on the mat or with strikes, and he is excellent at using his striking to set up submissions and vice versa. Tonight, we see Fedor start another win streak and get back to the form that made him the number one heavyweight for years.

Prediction: Emelianenko by KO/TKO

Tags: Andrei Arlovski, Antonio Silva, Chad Griggs, Fedor Emelianenko, Gian Villante, Lavar Johnson, Ray Sefo, Sergei Kharitonov, Shane del Rosario, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Silva, Valentijn Overeem