Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu II Preview

Through the magic of Tivo, DVR or Spike’s fortunate decision to immediately re-run the finale of “The Ultimate Fighter” tonight after the live broadcast concludes, many of us have about 6 hours of MMA to watch and couldn’t be happier about it. That’s right, Strikeforce has a show going on tonight too that every MMA fan should be aware of and excited to see.

In it, Dan Henderson will take on Renato “Babalu” Sobral, while other fights on the show will either be compelling (Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland; how much does Lindland have left in the tank?) or just plain entertaining (Scott Smith vs. Paul Daley, Antonio Silva vs. Mike Kyle). Let’s get right to my preview and picks for tonight’s televised fights.

Benji Radach vs. Ovince St. Preux

This fight was added at the end of November, and should be a good one. Want to sell your friends on coming over in time to catch it? Tell them that Radach has either won or lost by KO or TKO in 22 of his 27 career fights- his bouts are practically guaranteed to end memorably. He has but three decisions on his MMA record, the last of which took place eight and a half years ago.

Then there’s St. Preux, who isn’t as well known by MMA fans as Radach (who has fought in the UFC, Strikeforce, and just about everywhere else), but who has won his last five fights, four of which were due to knockouts or stoppages. Those who watch Strikeforce’s Challengers series will be more acquainted with St. Preux- he defeated Antwain Britt during a Challengers event just fifteen days ago. The question is, can St. Preux really test a veteran on the level of Radach?

Both will likely be content to strike: St. Preux is bigger and has a reach advantage, which he augments by using a variety of kicks when he strikes. Meanwhile, Radach will be predictably be trying to close the considerable distance and work St. Preux with punching combinations.

Usually, this is where I’d talk about how St. Preux is coming in on short notice and having fought just two weeks ago in a fifteen-minute bout, but the thing is, Radach is on short notice, also! Furthermore, he hasn’t fought in two years due to injuries and setbacks, while St. Preux will be competing for his sixth time this year. The odds have this one as a toss-up, and with Radach’s size disadvantage (this fight is at light heavyweight, not middleweight, too) and long layoff, I’m going with St. Preux.

Prediction: St. Preux by KO/TKO

Scott Smith vs. Paul Daley

While Radach is moving up in weight for a fight, his old opponent, Scott Smith drops down to welterweight to face Paul Daley. We all know the Paul Daley story: great striking, heavy hands, poor takedown defense, bad temper.

My immediate inclination is to choose Smith, because Smith has beaten more talented strikers (see: Cung Le) at a higher weight class. However, Smith plays a dangerous game by allowing his opponents to pretty much tee off on him while he looks for the kill shot. Also, while it remains to be seen if Daley will have the firepower to floor a natural middleweight with a great chin like Smith, I’m worried about how Smith will look after a huge weight cut.

In a fight where I could really go either way, picking the guy who uses a low-percentage (though, historically effective) strategy and may be completely drained by cutting down to 170 pounds doesn’t seem smart. Thus, I must reluctantly choose Daley, as I just think he will land more often throughout the bout.

Prediction: Daley by decision

Antonio Silva vs. Mike Kyle

Silva was supposed to face Valentijn Overeem, brother of Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem, but Valentijn had to withdraw due to injury. In his place steps Mike Kyle, a former UFC heavyweight who has rebuilt himself into a dangerous light heavyweight.

Kyle always had talent, but often lacked consistency and even common sense, piling up infractions that earned him occasional comparisons to Gilbert Yvel. Even though he has turned things around and looked much better of late, that doesn’t ensure any kind of success against a monster the likes of Silva.

Silva is one of the largest heavyweights in Strikeforce’s heavyweight division, and is not only much larger than Kyle, but is the better fighter, anyway. He moves well for a big man, strikes with power, and is aggressive enough to avoid letting Kyle off the hook. Kyle may make this an entertaining scrap while it lasts, but I don’t see how he can win.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland

In my view, Lindland was a mainstay in the top five of the middleweight division for years, even occupying the top spot here and there. Though he somehow got a bad rap for being “boring” even though he consistently put on entertaining bouts (watch his fights against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson or Phil Baroni), Lindland was an efficient fighter who mainly stuck to his strengths and racked up a lot of wins because of it.

Lindland has had a rougher go of it as of late, dropping three of his last five fights. Or has he? This is a guy whose last three losses were against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Vitor Belfort (two top ten middleweights) and Fedor Emelianenko himself. Go back a little further and his only other loss within the last six years was a questionable decision loss to Rampage in 2006. Does that really signal that Lindland is done?

Still, I won’t play devil’s advocate to the extent that I will flat-out deny that any decline has occurred. Lindland, like most athletes, is not Randy Couture, and he has visibly aged. His movements, which were never exactly catlike or graceful, have become slower and (if possible) more awkward, and his striking still hasn’t ever come along.

Meanwhile, Lawler has not been able to put together another lengthy win streak that would qualify him for a title shot, losing in 2009 via a quick submission to Jake Shields and then again by decision in June to Babalu. Still, with Strikeforce’s relative lack of depth at middleweight, you have to believe that he’s on the short list for title contention if he can string a couple of wins together.

In his time since leaving the UFC, Lawler has become bigger, stronger, and just all-around better. He’s still not the type of wrestler who would have kept Lindland from taking him down when Lindland was at the top of his game. However, Lindland is no longer at that point, and there should be extended periods spent upright in this bout, every second of which spell danger for Lindland. If Lawler can be patient, avoid swinging for the fences without setting up his strikes properly, and win the war of attrition while waiting for the home run, he’ll put Lindland down for good at some point.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Dan Henderson vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral

Henderson will finally appear again in the Strikeforce cage after his April debut led to a disappointing loss to Jake Shields. Meanwhile, Babalu will be making just his second appearance in 2010 as well, his only other fight being the afore-mentioned win over Robbie Lawler.

I’m not worried about how Henderson faded quickly in the Shields fight and looked very tired in the last three rounds. He had a tough time cutting weight for that fight, and with this fight at 205 pounds, that won’t be a problem tonight. Plus, everyone forgets that in the first round, Henderson at one point planted Shields right down on his face with a punch that appeared to spell the end for the former Strikeforce champion. It’s not as if the entire bout was one-sided, and Henderson simply didn’t capitalize on his chance to finish Shields.

Babalu has always been a brawler at heart, despite the fact that his skill set may lend itself to a more technical approach. Henderson is similar in a way, as he prefers to slug it out with big punches rather than utilize his wrestling skills. However, Henderson has concussive punching power, which has allowed him to garner many a memorable win over the years.

Babalu has very good jiu-jitsu, but Henderson has only really succumbed to submissions from the cream of the crop in that department, and I don’t think he’ll be tapping tonight. Take that away and you have an entertaining bout where Henderson will always be threatening with his power, has the option to control Babalu with his grappling, and will come away with the “W”.

Prediction: Henderson by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Tags: Antonio Silva, Benji Radach, Dan Henderson, Matt Lindland, Mike Kyle, Ovince St. Preux, Paul Daley, Renato "Babalu" Sobral, Robbie Lawler, Scott Smith, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu II