Strikeforce: Houston Preview and Picks

Two titles will be up for grabs tonight, as Strikeforce’s light heavyweight champ Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal will be in action, while a middleweight title scrap between Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and Tim Kennedy will crown a new champ in that division. Here’s my flimsy rationale (and accompanying picks) for tonight’s bouts airing live on Showtime:

Bobby Lashley vs. Chad Griggs

This one may be more competitive if it was a bodybuilding contest, rather than an MMA fight. In a sport that pushes “big name” rookies quickly, Lashley has remained committed to a gradual rise in mixed martial arts, winning his first five career fights against the likes of such luminaries as Wes Sims, Bob Sapp and Jason Guida. Meanwhile, Chad Griggs is your prototypical big fish in a little pond who has racked up an 8-1 record mostly in the Arizona area. Now he’ll try to step up to the national stage (a previous effort to do so resulted in a 1-1 record in the now-defunct IFL) against a true prospect in Lashley.

Lashley may be a bit long in the tooth compared to most prospects, but he is just as raw as many fighters who come from amateur wrestling tend to be. The difference is the several-year detour in professional wrestling that Lashley took in between his college days and his MMA debut. However, the 34-year old has shown an effective (if one-dimensional) approach that has allowed him to mostly plow through his opponents so far via takedowns, aggression and raw strength.

Griggs won’t be able to put up much of a fight if Lashley decides to stick to what’s best and go straight for the takedown. Like many lower-level heavyweights, Griggs is not particularly dangerous off of his back, and much of Lashley’s MMA training has been focused on staying out of trouble while pounding on opponents from the top position.

If Lashley carries through with his talk about showing off his standup skills tonight, it will give Griggs at least a slight chance for the upset. Let’s face it, when two heavyweights that aren’t exactly elite strikers decide to slug it out, anything can happen. However, I think Lashley will largely stick to the playbook tonight.

Prediction: Lashley by KO/TKO

KJ Noons vs. Jorge Gurgel

Strikeforce must not be very fond of Jorge Gurgel. They’ve taken a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist whose career has been sabotaged by his own bizarre desire to forgo his strengths and slug it out with all of his opponents, and put him with one of the more credible strikers in the lightweight division.

You can probably see where this prediction is headed.

If Noons somehow ends up in the guard of Gurgel, he could be in trouble. This is certainly even more true if Gurgel somehow gets a takedown. However, takedowns were never Gurgel’s specialty, and there’s no reason to think that he will be able to distract Noons enough with meaningful strikes to get a sneaky takedown here and there. Couple that with Gurgel’s past of cheerfully resigning himself to sloppy kickboxing matches, and Noons might have an opportunity for a highlight reel KO here.

It will be interesting to see if Noons’ striking and cardio look better than in his last appearance, but even if they don’t, he should have no problems here.

Prediction: Noons by KO/TKO

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (#8 MW) vs. Tim Kennedy

I’m not gonna lie. I’m a bit disappointed that Strikeforce is going the conventional route by determining the new middleweight champion via a sensible fight between two top contenders, rather than getting a little nutty with it and having an eight-man tournament like in the old days (or like in Bellator Fighting Championships, for that matter).

Still, seeing two quality middleweights in action is always a good thing, and I think very highly of Jacare, who I have ranked eighth in the world in the division. I think that Jacare’s inability to finish tough veteran Joey Villasenor in his last bout was more of an aberration than a cause for concern. He still ranks among the best in the world when it comes to pure jiu-jitsu skills in MMA, and that will always be his most dangerous weapon.

Meanwhile, Kennedy is a good fighter who has relied upon his own ground game heavily during his career so far, in which he has amassed a 12-2 record. Anyone can see that that could be a problem, since it puts him right where Jacare is most dangerous. Sure, Kennedy has never been submitted before in a professional fight, but that all goes out the door when you are in the guard (or worse yet, underneath) of someone like Jacare.

If Kennedy’s smart, he will work hard to keep this fight on the feet, where Jacare is relatively proficient but also suffers from what may be a bit of a suspect chin. At any rate, Jacare is much less dangerous on his feet, so at the very least, a strategy of wearing him down there before hitting the mat would be advisable. However, it’s a five-round fight and I just don’t think Kennedy will be able to avoid the mat- and a submission- for the whole 25 minutes.

Prediction: Jacare by submission

Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal (#5 LHW) vs. Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante

While the UFC has two great light heavyweight fighters in the making in Jon Jones and Phil Davis, many seem to forget that Strikeforce has perhaps the best prospect of them all in Lawal. Actually, even though he has just seven pro bouts and has been in the sport for less than two years, it seems wrong to even call Lawal a prospect. While Jones and Davis have yet to defeat a top ten fighter, Lawal is coming off of a gutsy, hard-earned win over Gegard Mousasi, who even Dana White acknowledged as “one of the best in the world” in the past.

So, Lawal is a legitimate top ten fighter (number five in the world, in my opinion- and my rankings) and the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion, to boot. The problem is that there really aren’t a lot of great tests in Strikeforce for him, besides Mousasi himself. Unlike the middleweight division, Strikeforce’s light heavyweight division is pretty top-heavy and doesn’t have a lot of real high-level talent beyond the top few guys. Those “few guys” would be Lawal himself, Mousasi, and Renato “Babalu” Sobral, who says he won’t fight King Mo because they are training partners (otherwise, it would be him facing King Mo tonight instead of Feijao).

Until Sobral changes his mind or Henderson can get a win at light heavyweight to legitimize a title shot against King Mo, it will be hard for the former U.S. national wrestling team member to really prove much more than he already did against Mousasi. Of course, if he can show, even against lesser competition, that he has continued to evolve his overall game, that will be worth something, and we will hopefully see signs of that tonight.

Still, King Mo will likely not stray too far from what got him the title, and he will be taking Feijao down early and often. Feijao is a jiu-jitsu black belt under the Nogueira brothers, but having a black belt simply doesn’t guarantee you a submission against someone as strong, athletic and talented as Lawal. King Mo has worked hard on his ground game and submission defense, and will be able to stay out of trouble in this one, just as he did against Mousasi. Lawal will probably finish this one in the later rounds when Feijao has tired himself out.

Prediction: King Mo by KO/TKO

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Tags: Bobby Lashley, Jorge Gurgel, KJ Noons, Muhammed Lawal, Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Houston, Tim Kennedy