Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields Preview and Fight Picks

As mentioned earlier this week, Strikeforce’s “Lawler vs. Shields” card presents matchups that are either relevant to the world’s top ten rankings, great for sheer entertainment value, or both.  Strikeforce has done a good job picking up the pieces after the downfall of EliteXC, and this card proves it.  Let’s discuss the night’s fights, what to look for, and who should come out on top.

Phil Baroni vs. Joe Riggs

This fight is tough to handicap, because neither fighter has ever really lived up to his full potential.  Baroni had a hot start to his UFC career, before cardio issues and perhaps a reluctance to embrace all aspects of mixed martial arts led him to being a .500 fighter.  Baroni did close out a busy 2008 (five fights for the year) with three straight wins, but none were against top-level competition.  Meanwhile, Riggs has not gone on a winning streak of longer than one or two fights since several years ago, when he was beating the likes of pre-TUF Kendall Grove at Rumble on the Rock and Joe Doerksen in the UFC.

The question is, will either of these guys do what they are capable of tonight?  Baroni has talked extensively about the change in his mentality, which has led to a lower weight class and even more surprisingly, less trash talking and cursing in his interviews.  If you’re cynical, you may not believe in the sudden life change from the “New York Badass”, but I give him the benefit of the doubt.  Meanwhile, I have always wondered if Riggs’ hectic fight schedule has been much of the problem for him.  You don’t amass 39 fights at 26 years of age without fighting very often, that’s for sure.  Both fighters should be fresh though, as neither has fought yet in 2009.

So, I’ll give both the benefit of the doubt and assume that they’ll both come in ready to put on a show.  In that case, I give the nod to Riggs, who I believe is the better all-around fighter.  I hope to see Baroni bring some better cardio into the cage with him; if he does, he could very well win tonight.  This fight should be very entertaining.

Prediction: Riggs by KO/TKO, Round 3

Kevin Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead

This is another fight that is interesting because of the fighters involved and their own checkered history in the sport.  Randleman has always had the physical ability and gifts to be a long-time champion in the sport, but has never fulfilled that potential, and Whitehead famously short-circuited on “The Ultimate Fighter” and hasn’t had a whiff of the “big show” since.

Whitehead recently took Renato “Babalu” Sobral to decision, and Randleman hasn’t amassed his 12 losses by fighting chumps, but neither has been able to take their career to the next level.  Randleman hasn’t fought in a year, so hopefully he’s finally healthy or somewhat close to it, and that’s what I think this bout hinges upon.  If Randleman is healthy and has trained hard leading up to this fight, he should definitely win based upon his own freakish talents, strength, quickness and explosiveness.  If not, Whitehead will win in a decision.

Prediction: Randleman by KO/TKO, Round 1

Andrei Arlovski vs. Brett Rogers

Arlovski is a substitute for Strikeforce champ Alistair Overeem, who was not able to compete due to injury.  One wonders whether Rogers, deep down, is thinking that he may have stepped out of the frying pan and into the fire here, as he is facing one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division, regardless of the unfortunate KO Arlovski suffered against Fedor Emelianenko.

Brett Rogers is a good young heavyweight most known for wanting to be the first guy to stop Kimbo Slice, and for campaigning very hard to do so.  In his last fight against little-known Ron Humphrey, though, Rogers did not impress.  His striking was sloppy, and if he presents those kinds of openings to a striker on the level of Arlovski, he will be in serious trouble.  That’s why I predict Arlovski’s high-level boxing to be the deciding factor here, though I believe that Arlovski is better in every facet of mixed martial arts than Rogers, anyway.

Prediction: Arlovski by KO/TKO, Round 1

Nick Diaz vs. Scott Smith

This is perhaps the toughest fight on the card to predict, because both fighters themselves are extremely tough.  Neither one is prone to being knocked unconscious, even by hard-hitting opponents.  Meanwhile, Smith should have a “definitive” (pretend it’s Mike Goldberg saying it) strength and size advantage over his trash-talking foe.  However, Diaz has made a living out of shrugging off such disadvantages.

Smith definitely has the power to knock people out, but Diaz has never shown the propensity to foolishly take a lot of hard shots; he instead establishes his quick punches while staying out of trouble.  I do think that if Dias is hard-headed, Smith can win this in a decision, however.  The biggest advantage for the Stockton native is his submission game, and if he can get Smith to the ground, he should be able to tap him out.

Prediction: Diaz by submission, Round 3

Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields

The main event of the night is between one of the top middleweights in the world, Robbie Lawler, and one of the highest-regarded welterweights in the world, Jake Shields.  Shields is thinking that his wrestling and ability to control his opponents on the ground will nullify the strength and size advantages of Lawler, and he is most likely not entertaining any ideas about striking with Lawler on the feet.

If he did dabble a bit in the stand-up game, it would be a mistake, as Lawler’s hands pack the kind of concussive power that can end a fight at any point in time.  Shields, for his part, only has rudimentary stand-up that is usually used to fill the time between takedown attempts in his fights.  The point here is that Shields has to take Lawler down.

However, I think that Lawler’s grappling is underrated, and his size advantage should help him to control Shields, even if Shields is doggedly pursuing takedowns throughout the fight.  Lawler should be able to do this while landing enough shots to take the fight in the eyes of the judges; though I’ll be a little more daring and predict a late stoppage after a long, grueling fight.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO, Round 3

Tags: Alistair Overeem, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Fedor Emelianenko, Jake Shields, Nick Diaz, Robbie Lawler, Strikeforce, UFC