Strikeforce: Melendez vs. Masvidal Preview

With apologies to Luke Rockhold, Gilbert Melendez is Strikeforce’s last big name champion. His contemporaries, Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson and Nick Diaz, have already left for the UFC, so fans can be excused for thinking the writing is on the wall when it comes to the elite lightweight, as well. Regardless of the speculation, Melendez makes another title defense tomorrow night as part of Strikeforce’s last card of 2011, which also features a few other fairly compelling fights.

Billy Evangelista vs. KJ Noons

I’ve always been hesitant to give Noons a whole lot of props for his vaunted boxing skills. Against another good striker, like Nick Diaz or Jorge Masvidal, Noons can look downright pedestrian. He does move well, particularly for a sport where feints are rarely used well and standup exchanges can often resemble two kids in the 80′s playing Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots, but he also is content to deflect punches with his face while looking for countering opportunities.

However, Evangelista is not the kind of fighter to exploit such a trait. If Noons’ striking looks pedestrian at times, Evangelista’s can be downright bedridden. He doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table considering that to beat Noons on the feet you need to bring a multi-faceted striking style like Masvidal did (not many fighters are going to be able to fight Diaz’s style effectively).

It’s probably obvious that Evangelista should look for takedowns, and I think he will do so, but his wrestling has not been overly impressive in his previous fights. Since Noons won’t throw a lot of kicks, he’ll be well-prepared for Evangelista’s shots. While I can see the fight hitting the mat occasionally, I think Noons has what it takes to handle any challenges Evangelista presents while eventually landing the big shots he’s looking for.

Prediction: Noons by KO/TKO

Gegard Mousasi (#8 LHW) vs. Ovince St. Preux

This is exactly the type of fight that the immensely-talented Mousasi could easily lose. St. Preux is a capable striker, a good athlete and a hungry fighter who isn’t ever going to give someone an easy fight. Meanwhile, Mousasi is a superb striker with mediocre takedown defense.

Fighters like Mousasi, who look like world-beaters one fight and also-rans the next, are always hard to handicap. Will Mousasi look better than he did against Keith Jardine, where he lost a round that ended up making the fight a draw when he also received a point deduction for an illegal upkick? I think so. I think St. Preux will rely on his striking and find that he isn’t quite on Mousasi’s level there. Mousasi has a sturdy enough chin to resist any bombs that St. Preux tosses his way, and I suspect that he can avoid St. Preux’s takedowns, as well.

This is a good test for St. Preux, as well as a sneaky tough fight for Mousasi. My jaw wouldn’t drop if St. Preux pulled it off, but Mousasi is the smart choice here.

Prediction: Mousasi by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Women’s Featherweight Championship
Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos vs. Hiroko Yamanaka

Yamanaka will be one of the few women Cyborg has faced that can actually match up with her a bit, size-wise. At 5’11″, she will actually have a little reach advantage when she steps in the cage tomorrow night. Also, she’s a former dominatrix in her native Japan, so there’s that, too. Well, she’d better remember the safe word once the cage locks shut, because before long, she’s going to need it.

Besides Yamanaka’s size and competency as a fighter, the thing that makes this a little interesting is the long layoff Cyborg is coming off of. She hasn’t fought since June of 2010 because of contract negotiations that proved a tougher competition than any she’s seen within the cage itself. However, I don’t expect ring rust to be a major factor, as unlike someone like Gina Carano, I can’t see Cyborg not being in the gym regularly simply because she doesn’t have a fight signed.

Cyborg will look a lot like usual, eschewing any feeling out process early on to swarm her opponent, hoping that she wilts under the pressure. I think Yamanaka will do so, sooner or later. It’s going to take a serious counter-striker or a great wrestler to beat Cyborg, and Yamanaka just doesn’t fit the bill.

Prediction: Cyborg by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Lightweight Championship
Gilbert Melendez (#2 LW) vs. Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal has come a long way since street fighting for money and looked great while destroying KJ Noons back in June. He’s a quality fighter for sure, but he’ll be a long way from the streets of Miami when he faces Melendez, who is a legitimate top five fighter in the world at 155 pounds. Does Masvidal have a shot?

He does, but it will be difficult for him to navigate this fight without running into trouble via Melendez’s intense pace and takedowns. Masvidal will want to turn this into a brawl, where he can benefit from his advantages in power and all-around striking. However, Melendez is generally a smart enough fighter to stick to his game plan, even when tempted to do otherwise, as when Shinya Aoki kept butt-scooting on him and trying to get Melendez to hop into his guard.

Melendez also has the cardio to sustain a lot of pressure throughout a five round fight. It’s much easier to do so when you are fighting your own fight, and though Masvidal has never easily tired in the past, you have to wonder if that will change when he’s fighting off of his back and fending off takedowns for twenty-five minutes.

Masvidal could always land that one big shot, sure. Otherwise, if he can control distance and land some leg kicks, he may be able to slow Melendez down and keep him off balance. However, I just don’t see it happening, in all likelihood. Melendez is a master of setting up his shots effectively with punches, and when Masvidal over-commits to an exchange, he’ll be on his back. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Prediction: Melendez by decision

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Tags: Billy Evangelista, Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos, Gegard Mousasi, Gilbert Melendez, Hiroko Yamanaka, Jorge Masvidal, KJ Noons, Ovince St. Preux, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Melendez vs. Masvidal