Strikeforce: Miami Preview and Picks

Strikeforce is in Miami tomorrow night for a night of solid fights to bring a close to a rather slow month for big-time MMA events.  With two title fights (including the first women’s title defense by Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos), a slugfest between Robbie Lawler and Melvin Manhoef, and the Strikeforce debuts of Bobby Lashley and…er, Herschel Walker…this is an event not to be missed.

Sure, we’re watching a former NFL running back and a current professional wrestler in action, but entertainment is entertainment, right?  Here’s a breakdown of the main card fights, along with some predictions that you probably shouldn’t trust enough to put money on…just saying.

Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy

First of all, before I get started, let me point out the ridiculousness of trying to pick a winner in a fight between a 47-year old former NFL running back with no professional fights (and a Tae Kwon Do background) and an unknown fighter with two professional fights, neither of which can be found for viewing purposes.

So, here’s what I’m going on.  Nagy has no wrestling experience (not even in high school) and says he just started training a year and a half ago.  He also has said he’d like to fight at 185, and weighed in at a rather soft-looking 210 pounds, while his opponent was a chiseled (at 47 years old, mind you) 214 and would probably have a little trouble making 205, even.  In that case, I’ll go with Walker based on size, athleticism and experience with performing under pressure.  I think the scope of the event and size difference will be enough in a fight between two very inexperienced fighters.  Of course, who can say for sure?  How about I just throw my hands up and wait for the impending slop-fest that this fight will likely be?

Prediction: Walker by KO/TKO (I guess)

Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims

Ah, now this is more like it.  Two relatively well-known commodities with rather obvious game plans.  Lashley will look to take Sims to the mat and grind him into a paste-like substance, and Sims will look to…hmm…what, exactly?

Sims is far from having elite striking, and his submission skills are just serviceable, both offensively and defensively.  He trains out of a wrestling-based camp, but doesn’t have the better wrestling here.  I’m not sure how he expects to win this fight.  I like Sims and think he’s a funny guy, but he was picked for a reason, and it’s great matchmaking by Strikeforce to ensure that Lashley fights a game opponent who won’t give up easily, but also won’t pose much of a threat to finish.  That doesn’t mean this will be a squash for sure, though: Sims will do what it takes to survive, but I can’t see him finishing Lashley or doing well enough to take a decision, even if Lashley isn’t able to put him away and ends up gassing midway through the fight.

Prediction: Lashley by KO/TKO

Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Manhoef

Here’s another fight with crystal-clear objectives for each fighter.  Lawler loves to strike, but will be in the cage with one of the few fighters in the world at his weight who can pose a serious threat to him in the standup realm.  Meanwhile, Manhoef readily admits before every fight that he is in trouble if the action hits the mat.

The question here is whether Lawler will test the waters and slug it out with Manhoef.  Lawler is not known for being a dominating wrestler, but he does have good takedowns and his control on the ground is excellent.  Combined with his powerful punches and elbows from the top position, it’s clear to everyone that a quick takedown is the smartest move for Lawler…but is it clear to him?

I think it is.  Lawler got ahead of himself and made a slight mistake in his last fight (against Jake Shields) and paid for it with a quick loss, which he has no doubt thought about quite often since then.  I think tactics will be at the forefront of Lawler’s mind tomorrow night as a result, and I expect a smart use of takedowns throughout the fight from Robbie.  This doesn’t bode well for Manhoef, who can knock out anybody in MMA at literally any weight (ask Mark Hunt, who regularly fights at more than 100 pounds heavier than Manhoef) but struggles mightily while pinned to the mat by his opponents.  I believe that Lawler will take Manhoef to the ground and pound him out at some point.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos vs. Marloes Coenen

We all wondered what would become of the women’s division if the lovely, charismatic Gina Carano faltered in her bout against Cyborg.  Well, tomorrow night we will start to find out.  Will the public respond to female fighters who are just as skilled as Carano, but not as likely to star in a major motion picture or grace the pages of Maxim?

Either way, the public’s reception of a Gina-less women’s title bout has nothing to do with the fight itself, which should be a good one.  We all know Cyborg’s game by now: she simply destroys whatever is in front of her, or at least attempts to do so until the fight is over.  Meanwhile, we have seen much less of Coenen, who boasts a very good submission game and competent stand-up skills, to boot.

I do wonder if Coenen will respond well to the intensity that Cyborg will bring right from the opening bell.  Coenen has said that she’s confident in her striking, but even a polished striker (like Gina Carano) can easily be overwhelmed simple by the volume and power of shots that Cyborg fires off.  Furthermore, I don’t foresee Coenen easily taking Cyborg down, so I’m not expecting her jiu-jitsu skills to affect the fight much.

Prediction: Santos by KO/TKO

Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis

While MMA fans often get knocked for prefering stand-up exchanges to the subtleties of the ground game, fighters often become just as enamored with trying their hand at striking instead of sticking to their strengths.  Diaz is one of many great submission artists and/or wrestlers that has foregone their best skills many times in favor of slugging it out.  His successes against some pretty good strikers, including Frank Shamrock, Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith, have only reinforced the bad habit of duking it out instead of getting some mileage out of that black belt of his.

Diaz has a style that uses an incredible quantity of punches that often don’t appear to landing with a lot of power, along with a good reach that helps him to stay outside of the range of harder hitting opponents that utilize looping punches.  The problem is that he will be facing a bonafide striker tomorrow- one who can use high kicks more effectively than anyone else in MMA right now.  Marius Zaromskis will have one objective- to keep the fight standing and mix his deadly high kicks into a variety of combinations to keep Diaz guessing before putting him away for good.

The thing is, Diaz will likely make part of Zaromskis’ plan very easy to follow through with.  Diaz chose to stand with Lawler, he chose to stand with Takanori Gomi, and I expect him to choose to stand with Zaromskis.  If he gets tagged, will he change his thinking?  Probably, but what’s the likelihood of Diaz even surviving a big mistake long enough to adjust his strategy?  This fight plays out similarly to Lawler-Manhoef in that it’s all about whether Diaz can overcome his urge to strike with his opponent in order to use his best skills to help him win the fight.  I don’t think Diaz will have the self-control to do that, and it will cost him.

Prediction: Zaromskis by KO/TKO

Tags: Bobby Lashley, Cyborg Santos, Herschel Walker, Marius Zaromskis, Marloes Coenen, Melvin Manhoef, Nick Diaz, Robbie Lawler, Strikeforce, Wes Sims