Strikeforce: Overeem vs. Werdum Preview

The second half of the opening round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix kicks off tonight, with the Alistair Overeem, the promotion’s heavyweight champion, among those in action. Among several heavyweight bouts is a lightweight tilt between KJ Noons and Jorge Masvidal that should provide some fun. Here are my thoughts on tonight’s main card fights.

Chad Griggs vs. Valentijn Overeem

You may remember Griggs as the benefactor of Bobby Lashley’s gas-out in their bout (and a dubious stand-up by the ref in the fight, as well). Since then, he has kept the momentum going with a win over Gian Villante in February. Overeem defeated K-1 veteran Ray Sefo to keep his hopes of being a grand prix sub alive, and now he meets Griggs tonight as a result.

Griggs is a gritty fighter who doesn’t let up and fights to his strengths. I don’t expect him to try to “out-finesse” Overeem tonight, and his biggest liability will be if he takes Overeem down and allows enough inactivity to give Overeem a chance to work a submission attempt. There’s always the chance of anything happening in the standup, too, but I don’t expect Griggs to just stand in front of Valentijn.

I think Griggs guts this one out by grinding Overeem down with takedowns and ground-and-pound en route to a mid- or late-round victory.

Prediction: Griggs by KO/TKO

Daniel Cormier vs. Jeff Monson

Cormier brings his Olympic-level wrestling pedigree and 7-0 pro record into the cage with him to take on the veteran Monson, who has won eight fights in a row in various promotions. Both fighters prefer to fight on the mat, and both also sport the “blown-up heavyweight” look, as they each come in at under 6′ tall and regularly weigh in the 245-pound range with muscle-bound frames.

Monson sports considerably less “extra” weight, though (read: flab) and with an experience edge as well, I favor him in the last round of a long, tough fight. The question is, what will Cormier decide to do? Will he take the fight to the mat or will he try his standup, which he is becoming more and more comfortable with?

I think Monson can get the better of the standup, though neither fighter is that great there and it would make for a rather ugly, dull fight if they stand throughout. Because of this, Cormier will go to what he knows and secure some takedowns, though not without a good degree of effort, as Monson’s defensive wrestling is pretty decent.

On the mat, I think that over a three-round fight Monson will either be active enough with submission and sweep attempts to turn the tide, or will catch Cormier in something, maybe late in the fight. It seems like a risky pick because if Cormier’s submission defense has come along far enough, he can avoid being subbed (Tim Sylvia did, remember?), but I’ll stick with it anyway.

Prediction: Monson by submission

Jorge Masvidal vs. KJ Noons

At first look, Noons’ standup seems a bit sloppy for a guy who sports a decent pro boxing record and carries tons of hype behind his striking skills. However, I think his MMA standup style, which seems to favor brawling more than the sweet science itself, draws opponents in and gives them false hope en route to a usually bad outcome for them.

That’s what he’ll be hoping for against Masvidal, who likes to scrap but is also better on the mat than Noons. If Masvidal fought a smart fight, he could grind out Noons and definitely win a decision or even slap a submission on at some point, depending on how things went. If Noons can keep Masvidal on his feet though, either through coercion, takedown defense or both, his odds are much better.

Despite the fact that I don’t like Noons’ willingness to get hit in exchanges and his constantly-low hands, his technique has worked well for him so far. He is more evolved in using strange angles and countering his opponents than most MMA fighters, too. He’ll use that in this fight and if he lands the right shot, even put Masvidal down for good. I’ll go in favor of a close decision, instead.

Prediction: Noons by decision

Josh Barnett vs. Brett Rogers

Barnett finally returns stateside in his grand prix bout with Rogers, who was once Strikeforce’s up-and-coming heavyweight prospect, but may have been more of a project than an actual finished product, after all. Though he was very game in his loss to Fedor Emelianenko, Emelianenko’s own recent troubles have made that performance a bit of a question mark, too. Plus, Fedor’s willingness to take a shot to give a shot can make anyone with enough determination and a good enough chin look pretty good, as well.

Barnett hasn’t exactly had the greatest run in the last two and a half years, either. His only fight in that span was 17 months ago, where he dominated an overwhelmed Gilbert Yvel on the mat, exactly as he was expected to. Can we expect Barnett to be reasonably close to what he used to be? I think so. He never relied tremendously on fast-twitch striking or pure athleticism, and I doubt he’s forgotten how to work on the mat, which was always his biggest strength.

Well, his biggest strength in this particular matchup may be his mind. Barnett is a rare fighter who can actually stick to his strategy in the heat of battle, and if you pardon the corniness here, Rogers will certainly turn up the heat early on. Barnett is competent enough on the feet and experienced enough to weather that storm, and once this one hits the mat, it’ll be all Barnett.

Prediction: Barnett by submission

Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

In 2006, Werdum submitted Overeem via kimura. Since then, Overeem has become Ubereem, a larger than life (almost literally) fighter that simply runs over opponents more than anything. He’s somehow seemingly retained all the athleticism and skill that he had as a lengthy 205-pounder years ago while adding dozens of pounds of what looks to be pure muscle and raw power since then. Werdum, on the other hand, is much the same guy. He still has a capable, patient standup game and well, a capable, patient ground game. He’s much more explosive on the mat than standing up though, as he showed in his quick submission of Fedor Emelianenko not too long ago.

Can Overeem impose his will here? He has the tools to. Will he? That’s a bit more difficult a question to answer, though I lean strongly toward “yes”. Unless he somehow gives Werdum too much respect for having a prior win against him, which would be pretty out of character for him, I think Overeem will pressure and bully Werdum from the outset.

I don’t think Werdum has much chance outside of a submission victory. Overeem’s no slouch on the mat, but then again, neither is Fedor Emelianenko. Overeem may be on high alert after seeing Fedor get tapped by Werdum though, and he will likely be very careful to watch for subs on the mat, when and if the fight gets there. Everywhere else, though, Overeem will overpower and damage Werdum at all times, including when Werdum is looking to close the distance or get takedowns while taking punishment the whole time. Overeem takes this one.

Prediction: Overeem by KO/TKO

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Tags: Alistair Overeem, Brett Rogers, Chad Griggs, Daniel Cormier, Fabricio Werdum, Jeff Monson, Jorge Masvidal, Josh Barnett, KJ Noons, Valentijn Overeem