Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Jardine Preview

The first Strikeforce card in 2012 is arguably also the first card indicative of the new Strikeforce, which has been stripped of many of its stars and all of its heavyweight division, with the exception of a couple of noteworthy gentlemen who still have to settle that “Heavyweight Grand Prix” thing.

It may sound like I’m knocking post-Zuffa purchase Strikeforce because, well, I kind of am. I’ve always liked supporting promotions outside of the UFC, but you have to call a spade a spade here and admit that besides the women’s 135 pound division, every division in Strikeforce is now seriously lacking in depth. As a result, we get cards like this one where people get title shots for no apparent reason other than “hey, that guy fought a bunch of times in the UFC!” and where the “who’s who” of Strikeforce (Robbie Lawler, King Mo) are fighting the “who’s THAT?!?” (Adlan Amagov, Lorenz Larkin).

I’ll still watch, though. Hey, so should you, after you read the following picks that may or may not be anywhere near accurate.

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Tyler Stinson

Saffiedine was impressive in his dominant win over the fast-fading Scott Smith, although it’s hard to know exactly what value to place upon a win over Smith at this point in the slugger’s career. Stinson, meanwhile, looked very good as well in his quick knockout of Eduardo Pamplona. Both like to strike, and I expect the balance of this one to take place standing up.

If that’s the case, Saffiedine should get the better of most of the exchanges. With more precise, diverse striking techniques, he should win the war of volume against Stinson, which may lead Stinson to take the fight to the mat at some point. Even there, though, Stinson will struggle to make much headway against an opponent who is pretty evenly-matched with him in the grappling portion of MMA. I think Saffiedine is a little better everywhere and wins a good fight.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision

Jordan Mein vs. Tyron Woodley

Mein is on the longest winning streak of his career, with six straight victories, while Woodley has never lost in his own nine fight career. Woodley is one of the rare fighters who has been almost completely built on Strikeforce’s stage, with seven of his career fights taking place in the promotion. Woodley was last seen defeating Paul Daley with a strategy that is fairly indicative of the way he usually fights. He’ll look to clinch and get takedowns, emphasizing control before aggression and looking to limit mistakes that can get him hurt or knocked out.

Mein will have his moments in this one. Anyone who saw his last fight against Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos knows that he is comfortable with using unorthodox techniques and does a great job of taking what his opponent gives him. If he has a chance to hurt Woodley, he’ll do so quickly and decisively. Woodley must be his usual, cautious self in order to comfortably win this one.

Ultimately, I think that’s what will happen. Mein is no rookie and will probably be harder to take down than Woodley anticipates, but Woodley will still get the job done. Control isn’t everything, but if you stifle your opponent’s offense, it’s enough. Woodley wins another one that won’t be part of any “fight of the year” talk.

Prediction: Woodley by decision

Lorenz Larkin vs. Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal

At first glance, this may look like your typical striker vs. grappler matchup, but it’s very rare that we see anything that black and white in MMA anymore. Lawal may be a wrestler first and foremost, but he has developed some scary power in his hands and is becoming a fairly competent striker, to boot. He reminds me of other wrestlers like Mark Munoz in that he has the power, but the technique is still coming along.

Larkin has a fairly obvious route to victory here, and it starts with cautious striking and defensive wrestling. Lawal may be tempted to try his striking for awhile, in which case Larkin is in business. Still, the threat of the takedown will loom, especially if Larkin gets the better of some exchanges, and Larkin must be on point. The payoff against King Mo comes in the later minutes of the fight, when he will wear down if given the chance to. Of course, as we saw against Gegard Mousasi, he is a threat to take you down even when he’s running on empty. Is Larkin up to the task of sprawling and brawling to victory while avoiding Lawal’s own bombs? I don’t think so.

Prediction: Lawal by KO/TKO

Adlan Amagov vs. Robbie Lawler

Has there been a more frustrating fighter to root for than Lawler? Ask his fans, and they will probably tell you that there hasn’t been. Lawler has always had the stuff of a top ten middleweight, but can’t seem to put together a good string of wins without having a head-scratching loss to break up the momentum. Meanwhile, Amagov has been on a tear, only losing in his first professional fight over four years ago. Of course, he has also never faced anyone near the level of Lawler.

When Lawler loses, he usually either simply gets caught making a silly mistake (Jake Shields) or simply looks completely disengaged from the fight (Tim Kennedy). The Kennedy fight in particular bothered me, as he showed no particular sense of urgency as the fight wore on despite obviously being down on the cards. Then again, he has had other fights where he was strangely inactive while his opponent took it to him, then came up with a home run swing to win the fight out of nowhere, as he did against Melvin Manhoef.

Here, I don’t expect to see either scenario pop up. If anything, an amped-up Amagov will play right into Lawler’s hands, coming at him aggressively and giving him chances to counter. Amagov simply will not be able to take Lawler down and keep him there, and Lawler usually does a very good job at countering obvious takedown attempts with punishing strikes. This doesn’t look good for Amagov, but it will provide a nice breather for Lawler’s fans.

Prediction: Lawler by KO/TKO

Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Luke Rockhold vs. Keith Jardine

“And you may ask yourself, ‘how did I get here?’ And you may say to yourself, ‘that’s not the Strikeforce number one contender!’ And you may say to yourself, ‘This isn’t the Strikeforce I remember!’”

You don’t have to be a Talking Heads fan to know that Strikeforce is far from the “same as it ever was” when Keith freaking Jardine is challenging for the middleweight title. I mean, “Once In a Lifetime”, Jardine was a high-level fighter, but that was some years ago.

Okay, I’ll stop.

The point remains, though. I don’t blame Strikeforce for throwing Jardine in there. Tim Kennedy couldn’t fight, and besides Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, who Rockhold just beat decisively to become champion, who else is there? However, you can’t ignore that this fight symbolizes that Strikeforce is now more like any smaller, regional promotion: they have to just throw whatever veteran with a little name value in there that they can and hope for a good fight. The problem, of course, is that Strikeforce isn’t a small, regional promotion and is supposed to be the second-best MMA organization in the world.

I don’t have a problem with Jardine. I love his work ethic, and I actually enjoy his awkward style, too. By all accounts he’s a good guy, and I was disappointed to see him get cut from the UFC, as he seemed to always be facing top-notch opponents. I don’t think being beaten by Thiago Silva, Rampage Jackson or Ryan Bader means you aren’t a UFC caliber fighter, it just means you shouldn’t be ranked in the top ten of your weight class. With thirty to forty light heavyweights on the roster at any point in time, you’re gonna tell me there’s no room for a gutsy veteran like Jardine?

Anyway, Jardine can win this fight. He’s shown against Mousasi and previously against Brandon Vera, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin that he can beat just about anyone on any given night. The problem is that everything has to go his way. He fights well on the inside, but he is also very susceptible to hooks on the inside or knees from the clinch. He throws punishing leg kicks, but can be tied or up or taken down if he doesn’t time them perfectly. He’ll always bring a high level of effort and aggression, but can be stifled if his opponent brings the same.

Rockhold simply isn’t the type of fighter to take a night off or have serious mental lapses. He should leave very little for Jardine to take advantage of, and though I expect Jardine to land some solid shots, Rockhold will be equally adept at landing his own shots and stopping any takedown attempts that come his way. Jardine is no fun to fight because if you let up, he’ll win and he has a habit of making you look pretty unimpressive if you don’t manage to floor him with strikes, so this one will be a close one throughout. However, Rockhold will win what could very well be a grueling bout.

Prediction: Rockhold by decision

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Tags: Adlan Amagov, Jordan Mein, Keith Jardine, Lorenz Larkin, Luke Rockhold, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, Robbie Lawler, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Rockhold vs. Jardine, Tarec Saffiedine, Tyler Stinson, Tyron Woodley