The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Preview

After tonight, an incredible twelve seasons of “The Ultimate Fighter” will be in the books. This year, the finale comes down to Jonathan Brookins and Michael Johnson, who will duke it out for the crown. Meanwhile, Demian Maia will face Kendall Grove while Stephan Bonnar will take on Igor Pokrajac, ensuring that there are plenty of reasons to tune in.

Johny Hendricks vs. Rick Story

These two criminally-underrated welterweights bring lengthy winning streaks into the Octagon with them, as Story has won four in a row, while Hendricks has never been defeated in nine professional fights. Not only should this fight make fans better acquainted with the two, but it will decide which one continues to make his way toward a future title shot and which will simply go back to a very deep talent pool to start the process all over again.

Story’s best chance for the win lies in catching Hendricks with a big shot early on. Story is always at his best early in his fights, and I have a feeling that Hendricks will push Story to exhaustion within a round or two. The problem is that Hendricks has very strong wrestling, and will be putting Story on his back early and often. I think Story won’t be able to really concentrate on putting good strikes together either, since the thought of being taken down will always be looming.

Prediction: Hendricks by decision

Demian Maia vs. Kendall Grove

Each of these two have been both celebrated and written off at one point or another for different reasons. Maia was another Anderson Silva opponent who didn’t have the takedowns to bring Silva to the mat, resulting in a boring, even puzzling bout. While Silva should have been blamed for most of it, there has been residual damage for Maia, who is now often called a “boring fighter”. There’s no doubt that his two decision wins over Dan Miller and Mario Miranda have also encouraged that perception, as well.

For Grove, having back-to-back losses expand into four losses in seven fights has been damaging to his credibility as a talented middleweight. Grove has always seemed to be talented and dangerous: his rangy, lanky frame is perfectly utilized in his striking style, which uses a lot of straight punches, kicks and clinch work. Furthermore, his jiu-jitsu is more than enough against most opponents. However, it seems that Grove is just a good fighter stuck in an organization that is stacked with great fighters.

Grove likely sees a light at the end of this particular tunnel in that Maia’s standup is really not good at all. Grove’s blueprint couldn’t be more obvious: use his length, keep Maia at bay, avoid going to the mat, and win. However, Maia does not simply rely on double-leg takedowns to take opponents to where he’s most comfortable. He will do everything up to and including just grabbing an opponent and pulling them into his guard to make a fight more of a jiu-jitsu match.

He’ll get Grove on the mat regularly for as long as the bout lasts, and that’s a problem: despite lackluster performances against Silva and Miranda, Maia has among the sport’s best jiu-jitsu, and he’ll remind us why that’s true in this fight.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac

Bonnar has been written off by many as being “done”, and even I have questioned why he is still under contract when he lost five out of seven bouts at one point. However, it’s not as if he’s been losing to bums: of his UFC losses, only the one to an over-the-hill Mark Coleman stands out as truly disappointing. His other losses were to former UFC light heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, current prospect Jon Jones, and then a stoppage due to a cut against Krzysztof Soszynski.

Translation: Pokrajac has a lot to prove in this one. After losses to Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, Pokrajac was strangely allowed to keep his spot in the UFC and submitted James Irvin for his first UFC win. He will certainly be looking to take Bonnar down as often as possible in order to earn a victory.

However, what’s he going to do after he gets a takedown? Bonnar has an underrated defensive guard and isn’t likely to give up position to Pokrajac or get submitted. Furthermore, his takedown defense is pretty good, and he’ll likely be peppering Pokrajac whenever the two are upright. I think Bonnar will do what it takes to frustrate Pokrajac throughout: Pokrajac may never stop working, but it won’t matter.

Prediction: Bonnar by decision

Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson

What some fans may not know about TUF 12 finalist Brookins is that he has not only competed in the WEC before, but he actually fought Jose Aldo himself. Brookins took Aldo into the third round before being dispatched, which is more than many of Aldo’s foes can say.

Brookins career before TUF is also relevant because of the fact that he’s a natural featherweight. Far from being the first fighter to fight a weight class (or two) up from his natural weight to be on “The Ultimate Fighter”, Brookins will be giving up some size and strength to Michael Johnson, who on the show proved to be a capable striker who preferred taking down his opponents.

Standing up, I favor Brookins slightly because he’s a more technically-sound striker. However, there’s an asterisk there because Brookins likes to stick his chin up in the air at times, and Johnson is the harder striker of the two, as well.

Johnson should be able to take Brookins down, though Brookins’ craftiness means that he can possibly sweep Johnson, stand up when taken down, or pull submissions out of nowhere. Johnson is definitely the safe pick in my view, so I’m surprised more people aren’t predicting him to win. He’ll get his takedowns, push the action, and be my favorite to win the fight if it goes to a decision, as a result. However, how can you not be wary of Brookins’ submissions and overall polished skill set if you’re backing Johnson?

This should be a great fight, and both should have good UFC careers, although Brookins’ should take place in the featherweight division.

Prediction: Brookins by submission

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Tags: Demian Maia, Igor Pokrajac, Johny Hendricks, Jonathan Brookins, Kendall Grove, Michael Johnson, Rick Story, Stephan Bonnar, The Ultimate Fighter, The Ultimate Fighter 12, The Ultimate Fighter St. Pierre vs. Koscheck