The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale Preview

Given that we only found out a few hours ago who’s even going to be fighting for the vaunted “six-figure contract” this weekend on the fourteenth (!) finale of The Ultimate Fighter, you may not have expected picks this soon, but you should have learned by now, grasshopper: expect the unexpected!

So here I am with my indisputable and indispensable insight into the three biggest fights going down this weekend. Will my bias against all things Bisping be as obvious as my love of alliteration? Will I have any idea who to pick for the finals for the bantamweight and featherweight contracts, or will I simply flip a coin and write my preview accordingly? No one knows! Not even me, honestly. Let’s just get on with it.

Bantamweight Final
TJ Dillashaw vs. John Dodson

Okay, let’s try to make this easy. I’ll make a list of important areas, pick someone with an advantage in each and see how it all shakes out.

Names: Dillashaw is named “TJ”. Point goes to Dodson. I mean, “TJ”?

Demeanor: Dodson is on the short list of corniest personas in TUF history. Seriously. When the guy you just knocked the shit out of’s first reaction is to go “that guy?!?!?”, that says something. It almost works for Dodson. Be one part Mr. Rogers, one part Chucky from the Child’s Play films (the laugh!) and one part Carlton Banks, then flip all that shit off in the cage and go nuts on people, followed by immediately going back into full-blown corniness.

It almost works.

Okay, we’re not getting anywhere here.

Look at it this way. The one reason why this fight is interesting is that Dillashaw has looked between awkward and awful during the standup portions of his bouts on the show. Dodson sometimes simply flails his tiny little limbs during exchanges, particularly when the fighting is up close and personal, but obviously packs some power and is nonetheless more refined than Dillashaw.

The question, then: how long will Dillashaw have to play Dodson’s game before getting into his own strategy? Not very long, I think. Dodson is hard to hold down, but Dillashaw will not be deterred if Dodson stands back up once or twice. As a former NCAA wrestling standout, Dillashaw may still be somewhat new to fending off submissions, but he is not new whatsoever to holding people down as they attempt to get back up or improve position. That’s what wrestling’s all about, after all. By just looking to stand back up, Dodson plays into Dillashaw’s wrestling background, and he loses that game.

While I don’t agree with Johnny Bedford’s assertion that he’s still clearly a better fighter than Dodson, that fight was a bit of a toss-up until the knockout, with Dodson not exactly looking like a world-beater until he cracked Bedford and floored him. I don’t think he’ll get nearly as many opportunities to find the mark with Dillashaw, and as a result he’ll be on the losing end of things this Saturday.

Prediction: Dillashaw by decision

Featherweight Final
Dennis Bermudez vs. Diego Brandao

Both of these guys have looked impressive, with Brandao probably being the most impressive fighter on the show from the fast finishes of his fights alone. All the talk is about Brandao, who clearly had intimidated Brian Caraway before their fight even began. Caraway was ready to fight, but as soon as things started to go against him (especially the effective leg kicks Brandao landed), you could see him wilt.

The ridiculously late stoppage that ensued aside, what can we take away from Brandao’s latest fight? He fought at a more measured pace than before, but was still pretty damned aggressive. He showed the same killer instinct as before, which is good as long as it isn’t misguided. If it is, he gasses out and a good fighter like Bermudez takes advantage.

Bermudez is a good fighter and may even put Brandao on his back (in fact, he will, if he’s smart), but Brandao supposedly has a good jiu-jitsu game, too. Meanwhile, I think that even if Brandao fails to finish when he inevitably rushes Bermudez at some point early in the fight, he can avoid fading long enough to take the first couple of rounds, if he doesn’t finish Bermudez. I’m not sure Bermudez’s chin can withstand a barrage like what Brandao will bring.

Prediction: Brandao by KO/TKO

Michael Bisping vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller

This is one of the more anticipated coaches’ fights we’ve ever had, and it is finally on the Spike-aired finale, the way that the coaches’ fights should have been all along, in my opinion.

Whether the feud was a little manufactured or not, there is certainly some dislike there that you would expect to have when you face the reality that you will be punching the other guy’s face (and vice versa) in a couple of months. For his part, Bisping has not exactly endeared himself to many of his fellow fighters, and there’s enough smoke in the form of fighters mentioning their dislike of Bisping to indicate that the hot fire of dickheadedness does indeed burn within “The Count”.

Enough talking about whether we want to see Bisping get punched in the face, though. Will we see it?

I think we will, though I don’t expect the battle to be decided in the standup. While Miller’s standup is often underrated and is certainly passable enough, I have to (begrudgingly) say that Bisping has a slight edge there. He certainly doesn’t have the edge in power, because he has very little to speak of, but he is a very technically sound, clean striker. You also have to factor in the very sizable chance of an illegal knee or two softening up Miller at some point, so there’s that.

Despite the shot(s) heard ’round the world delivered by Dan Henderson at UFC 100, Bisping does not have a weak chin. He’s been rocked before, sure, but recovers quickly. I don’t expect Miller to knock Bisping out cold, unless he lands very cleanly at some point, and even then I’d be shocked. What I think will tell the tale is the grappling portion of the match, and Miller’s job will be to ensure that there is such an element at some point or another.

Bisping’s defensive jiu-jitsu is actually pretty good, especially off of his back. However, Miller is on another level entirely, particularly in terms of advancing position and making unpredictable submission attempts. Will Mayhem be able to take Bisping down, though? Maybe not initially, but I think he will eventually. The trick will be to do well enough in the standup to distract Bisping from the threat of a takedown. I don’t think there’s any way in hell Bisping shoots on Mayhem…at least, not if he’s smart.

This is a five-rounder, too, which I think favors the more skilled fighter overall. Neither have displayed cardio problems in the past of note, so I think the extra two rounds gives Miller, the better finisher, a chance to catch Bisping. I don’t know if this is my head or my heart talking, but I’ll take Miller here.

Prediction: Miller by submission

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Tags: Aaron Simpson, Dennis Bermudez, Diego Brandao, Jason "Mayhem" Miller, John Dodson, Michael Bisping, The Ultimate Fighter, The Ultimate Fighter 14, TUF 14