The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale Preview and Picks

After 12 episodes and many, many fights, we’ve seen the cast of The Ultimate Fighter: USA vs. UK narrowed down to just four remaining participants.  Tonight, we’ll see who wins, as Damarques Johnson of the US takes on James Wilks of the UK in the welterweight final, while Ross Pearson and Andre Winner, both of the UK, will duke it out to find the lightweight winner.  Also, we’ll have several UFC regulars, headlined by a bout between Diego Sanchez and Clay Guida.  Let’s get right into the televised fights.

Nate Diaz vs. Joe Stevenson

It would be tough on either of these fighters’ careers to take a loss at this point, and that often makes for a great fight.  Diaz is coming off his first UFC loss (against Clay Guida), while Stevenson has dropped three of his last four against absolutely top-notch competition.  Of course, losing to BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez is nothing to be ashamed of, but if you’re trying to rise to the top of a tough division, like Stevenson is, those are fights you need to win.

With both fighters being very accomplished grapplers (Stevenson’s submission losses have come after he was pounded on the ground and in deep trouble already), I really think that the balance of this one will be decided by who does everything ***else*** well.  In that case, I think that Diaz’s striking, reach advantage (which will be huge), and all-around game will be the deciding factor.  Stevenson is a tough fighter who is always in great shape, but I see him having a hard time getting into punching range against Diaz, and I don’t see him subbing Diaz either.  Furthermore, I think it would be hard for Joe to win a decision when Diaz will likely be peppering him with punches throughout.

Prediction: Diaz by decision

Chris Lytle vs. Kevin Burns

This could be a great fight.  Kevin Burns has never been to a decision in 9 career fights, and Chris Lytle always comes to bring it, and usually only goes the distance when his opponents repeatedly take him down and/or control him for fifteen minutes.  Burns is mostly known for his two fight rivalry with Anthony Johnson, where he was unfairly awarded with a TKO victory after inadvertently poking his opponent in the eyes, and then promptly was knocked out in scary fashion by Johnson in the rematch.  Meanwhile, Lytle is one of the best fighters in his division, but has never been able to beat the top guys, even with a great all-around skill set.

All in all, Lytle is one of the most underrated fighters in the game, and he will win this one handily.  Although Lytle’s pro boxing experience is often brought up, he really hasn’t made a habit of knocking guys out in his UFC tenure, instead often getting submissions on opponents who are surprised by his ability on the mat.  This time, I see a slugfest leading to a Lytle KO or TKO, however.

Prediction: Lytle by KO/TKO, Round 2

Ross Pearson vs. Andre Winner

The two final fights of the season for “The Ultimate Fighter: USA vs UK” look to be very good ones, indeed.  The cliché that this fight “should be a war” applies here, as the adrenaline from the live crowd and the opportunity at hand will likely help the combatants to toss any pleasantries aside early on.

I’ve always thought that Pearson’s striking is a lot like Wanderlei Silva’s, as he tends to let someone come in with a strike or two, then advance quickly with hard hooks in response.  Meanwhile, Andre Winner is definitely the better athlete and possibly the most well-rounded of the two.  Both looked very good in their fights this season (although Pearson struggled at times in his last fight on the show), but I’m going to go with Pearson here in a late finish, most likely by strikes.

Prediction: Pearson by KO/TKO, Round 3

Damarques Johnson vs. James Wilks

The other final fight pits Damarques Johnson against James Wilks, with both coming off very strong runs in the show.  Wilks actually beat the same fighter (Frank Lester) twice, with both undoubtedly being among the best fights of the entire season.  Wilks showed a lot of perseverance, determination and a solid chin in the fights, but in the last bout with Lester he also showed a gas tank that wasn’t quite full.  You can chalk that up to fighting many times in a short time frame, but still, if Wilks shows up without being in top shape tonight, he’ll be in a lot of trouble.

In the end, I really believe that Johnson will catch Wilks early and often, ending the fight in the first couple of rounds.  I just don’t see Wilks being on the level of Johnson in striking, and he won’t be taking the American down, either.

Prediction: Johnson by KO/TKO, Round 1

Clay Guida vs. Diego Sanchez

This fight will likely determine the next challenger for the lightweight title, which could put one of these two men in the cage for a title shot before the end of the year (or before the end of next summer, if BJ Penn retains the belt against Kenny Florian).

Guida was a bit of a fan favorite early, beloved for often having the best fight on the card and for his unlimited supply of fuel.  In recent fights, he has come under fire a bit from some fans for supposedly “stalling” by clinching foes against the fence for minutes at a time.  Meanwhile, Sanchez came out of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter” as a respected but not necessarily liked fighter, as many were put off by his rants about his “destiny” and his attitude towards others on the show.  Since then, even skeptics have come to acknowledge that Sanchez is one of the top fighters in the sport; a statement which he will look to solidify with a win here and a title shot against the winner of Penn/Florian.

Who has the edge here?  You have two good wrestlers, both with among the best cardio in the sport, and somewhat limited striking.  However, when the fighters stand, Diego should have at least a slight advantage, as he has a longer reach and hits with considerably more power.  Meanwhile, neither fighter is likely to submit the other, but if a submission happens, you can bet it will be Guida doing the tapping.  Really, this is a very evenly-matched fight, but I just see Sanchez using his edge in the striking game and strength advantage to get a decision victory.

Prediction: Sanchez by decision

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Chris Lytle, Clay Guida, Diego Sanchez, Joe Stevenson, Kenny Florian, Nate Diaz, UFC, Wanderlei Silva