UFC 101 Preview and Picks: Part 2

In Part 1 of my UFC 101 preview, we looked at the preliminary bouts on Saturday night’s card.  Now, in Part 2 we will take a look at the main card fights coming from Philadelphia, PA, with the title fight between BJ Penn and Kenny Florian taking top billing.  If you want to get some thoughts and analysis of Saturday’s fights, you’ve come to the right place.

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino

For me, anyway, this may be the toughest fight to pick on Saturday’s card.  Both of these guys are very tough competitors, with Neer having very effective standup and a record of not backing down a bit against top competition.  Meanwhile, Pellegrino’s wrestling is top-notch, and he always comes ready to fight, with cardio to spare. 

In the standup, Neer will have the advantage, although Pellegrino should be able to survive long enough to take the fight to the ground, where he would prefer to be.  There is really no doubt in my mind that this fight will hit the canvas early and often, but will Pellegrino be able to take advantage when it does?  He has been tapped out in the past, and Neer has surprisingly good jiu-jitsu, as he showed when he tapped out Mac Danzig in his last bout.  I think that Neer will be able to pull off another sub in this one, though any other outcome wouldn’t surprise me, either.  If you’re a betting person, don’t look to put money on this one!

Prediction: Neer by submission

Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida

Before his five-year layoff, Almeida was one of the best middleweights in the world.  However, his split decision loss to Patrick Cote and his effective, but not exactly impressive, win over Matt Horwich show that things have changed some since those days.  Almeida fought just four months ago, so he should be fairly sharp, but will it be enough?

This is a pretty good matchup for Grove, who has the range and the precise standup to give Almeida fits.  Almeida has never tightened up his standup game or his wrestling ability, at least not to the extent where he can be expected to out-strike Grove or take him down easily.  Look for Grove to pepper Almeida with shots while keeping his distance, and to even take advantage of the Muay Thai clinch if Almeida does close the distance.  If Almeida can get the fight to the ground, it may get interesting, but I’m not counting on that happening.

Prediction: Grove by KO/TKO

Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks

Barring a freak last-minute injury, Amir Sadollah will finally make his proper UFC debut on Saturday night against WEC veteran Johny Hendricks.  Hendricks brings wrestling and big, powerful strikes to the table, while Sadollah is known for submitting better wrestlers, which he did with almost hilarious regularity on “The Ultimate Fighter”.  While Sadollah’s relative lack of experience may seem to be a weak point, he has been training at Xtreme Couture since he won “The Ultimate Fighter”, and has likely improved by leaps and bounds since then.

There are a lot of question marks with both fighters, since they have six professional bouts between them and neither has been in a whole lot of trouble in their respective careers.  Can Sadollah hold up to a huge flurry from Hendricks?  It seems like the most probably scenario is also the most familiar one, with Hendricks taking Sadollah down, but eventually succumbing to a submission, probably by arm bar.

Prediction: Sadollah by submission

Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin

This fight (or any other that features Anderson Silva as one of the participants) would seem to be a foregone conclusion, but the UFC has succeeded in creating at least some doubt about the outcome, thanks to the size advantage and intelligence of Griffin.  Griffin’s ascendance to the top level of the light heavyweight division is well-documented, as is Silva’s recent tendency to carry his opponents to long, rather anticlimactic outcomes.  The latter phenomenon is what prompted this fight, as a flabbergasted Dana White wanted to “push” his middleweight champion, presumably in an attempt to make him, you know, ***fight***.

Griffin will use his trademark tactical, yet aggressive approach in this one, and he will probably dictate the pace.  However, that will largely be because Silva has no problems letting him do so, and he will be happy to take advantage of mistakes as Griffin makes them.  Silva can submit Griffin on the ground or knock him out standing, but Griffin does not really pose the same threat in return.  That’s the main problem for Griffin in his UFC career: against many of his opponents, he must pitch a shutout in order to win and fight a mistake-free fight.  Any mistakes he makes against Silva will prompt an abrupt end to the fight, while Griffin’s most likely path to victory involves takedowns and controlling his opponent while peppering him with strikes.  The shorter length of this non-title bout aids him in that pursuit, but the odds are still not with him.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian

I’m actually surprised that more people aren’t picking Florian in this fight.  He has looked great in the last couple of years, and has improved at an incredible pace.  Meanwhile, even if the loss was outside of his natural weight class, the image of Penn getting dominated by Georges St. Pierre is a hard one to shake.  Still, it’s important to remember how effective Penn has been over the years at 155 pounds, where he has only lost to Jens Pulver, which took place way back in 2002.

Florian will definitely look to take advantage of his striking, particularly his kicks, while staying outside of Penn.  I don’t think that he will look to take the fight to the ground, but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he did, especially if Penn’s crisp boxing was getting the better of him.  In fact, I think both fighters will be happy to stand and trade if they believe that they are getting the better of the exchanges, although Penn will have the advantage on the mat against just about any lightweight in the world. 

The real x-factor here is Penn’s cardio, and the fact that he is in outstanding shape is what really ruins Florian’s chances.  If Penn was not taking his training seriously, Florian could weather the early storm and turn up the intensity in the later rounds of this championship fight, but Penn will be ready and at his best.  Florian is probably right about having more heart than Penn, but how will he force Penn to use his?  I would love to see Florian get the “w”, but I just don’t see it happening.

Prediction: Penn by submission

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Amir Sadollah, Anderson Silva, Dana White, Forrest Griffin, Georges St. Pierre, Jens Pulver, Kenny Florian, Kurt Pellegrino, Patrick Cote, Ricardo Almeida, UFC, WEC