UFC 102 Preview and Picks

Later tonight, two of the true legends of mixed martial arts will face off, as Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira get in the cage in a three-round fight.  Meanwhile, other bouts with title implications await, such as Keith Jardine against Thiago Silva in a fight between light heavyweights trying to get back towards title contention, and Demian Maia versus Nate Marquardt in a fight that will go a long way towards settling the logjam at 185 pounds.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

Rosholt is your prototypical accomplished amateur wrestler who transitions to MMA with great early results, only to find trouble when the level of competition steepens and his relatively one-dimensional skills are no longer enough.  It’s not exactly Rosholt’s fault alone; this is a guy who fought his first professional bout two years ago, and was in the UFC a year and a half later.  Some fighters, such as Josh Koscheck and of course, Brock Lesnar, are able to weather the storm of well-rounded fighters with much more professional experience, but Rosholt’s loss against Dan Miller shows that this is not such an easy task.

The question is, has Rosholt added enough to his game over the six months since his loss to Miller to take a considerable step up in competition and take on the very experienced Chris Leben?  Leben will threaten to end the fight at a moment’s notice with his powerful, wild strikes.  Meanwhile, he may not be able to keep Rosholt from taking him down (which is definitely the smartest choice), but Leben has the ground game to either take minimal damage when the fight hits the mat, or even to put Rosholt in danger of a second straight submission loss.

I think that Leben will have what it takes to at least survive until rounds two and three, when Rosholt will tire of facing such a pesky, game opponent.  At that point, I see Leben being able to land strikes with increasing success, leading up to a second straight loss for Rosholt.  If Rosholt can survive and control Leben throughout, an uneventful decision victory may be his for the taking, though.

Prediction: Leben by KO/TKO

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

This is really the tale of two fighters on diverging paths, here.  Vera is the former prospect who has failed to assert himself over his UFC career and often looked unmotivated and in danger of squandering his considerable talent.  Meanwhile, Soszynski is a guy who has fought just about everywhere, but seems to have rescued his career from “journeyman” status and really hit his stride during his UFC tenure.  Although he wasn’t able to win “The Ultimate Fighter”, he has finished all three of his opponents during his actual UFC appearances.  This matchup against Vera makes me think that they believe Soszynski is ready to step up to the next level, and they want to see what he’s got.  With Vera, it is time for him to come through in a big spot or possibly find work elsewhere, if he’s not able to come up with the win here.

Vera should be comfortable at 205 by now, as it is his fourth fight at light heavyweight, with only a split decision loss to Keith Jardine marring his record in the division.  However, at heavyweight he seemed willing to let his opponents dictate the fight far too often, and I don’t know if it was just due to the weight discrepancy, or just the way that Vera fights.  If he lets Soszynski control this fight, he will be in trouble as Soszynski does a great job of imposing his will on opponents.  Vera will not want to take a passive approach in this one, especially since his best advantage will be had when the fight is standing.

Soszynski packs power in his strikes, but Vera is more technically proficient and has much better kicks and all-around strikes.  If the fight hits the mat, Vera is skilled enough to survive, but I don’t see him putting Soszynksi into trouble with a submission attempt.  I think that Vera will look to finish Soszynski standing, and though I feel like I’m going to regret this, I’ll go with Vera here.

Prediction: Vera by KO/TKO

Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt

This is a great, great fight.  It’s unfortunate that it is not being very heavily hyped (although the whole event seems to be getting overlooked, really), because this fight will answer a lot of interesting questions, particularly about Demian Maia, who has been somewhat of an enigma in the middleweight division.

Maia has been absolutely outstanding in his MMA career when the fight hits the ground.  He has submitted a whopping eight out of ten of his opponents, and seven of those submissions have occurred in the first round.  Simply put, when the fight hits the mat against Maia, it may as well be over. 

However, Marquardt easily provides Maia with his toughest challenge to date.  The veteran of 38 professional fights, Marquardt has only been tapped twice- by Genki Sudo and Ricardo Almeida, with the last of those taking place nearly six years ago.  Marquardt is well-rounded, extremely experienced, and has the ability and athleticism to give just about anyone (with Anderson Silva being the predictable exception) fits.

This fight is very hard to predict, mainly because Maia hasn’t faced this level of competitor yet, and also because Maia has dominated his fights so far very easily.  We don’t know what will happen if Maia is unable to assert his own game plan, or if Marquardt is able to rock him with a solid strike or two.  Marquardt’s own ability on the ground makes it very hard to pick Maia to submit him, but Maia is a special fighter who will show by the end of the night that his name fits perfectly well alongside Sudo and Almeida’s.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva

Well, you can’t blame a fighter for looking bad against Lyoto Machida.  We’ve yet to see what strategy works best against the Brazilian mastermind, but Silva’s approach of raw aggression and will is definitely not it.  Silva looked awful against Machida, barely landing a strike while being put away early on.  Meanwhile, Jardine has been doing his thing, which basically entails dragging just about any fighter in the weight class through a tough, ugly fight.  He did so against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, though he ended up on the losing side of a decision for his efforts.

Although Silva is a very aggressive fighter, his ground game is probably the most underrated thing he possesses.  Unfortunately, Silva is very easily sucked into a stand-up war, and that’s exactly what Jardine will look to take part in here.  I think that Jardine will be able to keep his distance with leg kicks, and I know that he will come into the fight with an excellent game plan, as is the norm for Greg Jackson-trained fighters.

However, Silva will be very dangerous if he gets in close and is able to clinch Jardine, where previous opponents (see: Houston Alexander) have had success.  Jardine is susceptible to opponents swarming him with aggressive attacks, but I think with this one, Jardine will weather the storm and keep Silva at bay long enough to get the decision victory, though one of the two hitting the mat unconscious is certainly not out of the question.

Prediction: Jardine by decision

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira

I’m less hyped than I really should be for a matchup between such legends, and it seems as if I’m not alone.  Sure, Couture’s not getting any younger, and you always wonder when the magic elixir of timeless youth will finally run out for the UFC Hall of Famer.  However, Nogueira is the one to be concerned about here.  Though a lot has been made of the possible reasons for his underwhelming performance against Frank Mir (a staph infection seeming like the best excuse of the bunch), Nogueira just hasn’t looked like himself in his UFC tenure.

Nogueira had to survive being rocked by Heath Herring in his UFC debut, and pulled off one of his signature come-from-behind submissions against Tim Sylvia after taking a beating early on, but his loss to Frank Mir was a troubling one.  Nogueira’s head movement was nonexistent, and Mir was able to catch Nogueira with a couple of the same combinations over and over again in the standing position.  Nogueira looked to be Couture’s age that night.

I have all the respect in the world for Nogueira, and I would love to see him make the greatest comeback of all, which would be to get back to his old status as the world’s top heavyweight.  However, I just don’t see it happening, at least not tonight.  Couture’s superior strategy and ability to stay out of submissions will see him through to a three-round decision victory.  Neither man has knockout power, but Couture’s boxing is much more technical than Nogueira’s these days, and he will beat Nogueira to the punch repeatedly.  Look for Couture to also utilize the clinch and dirty boxing as he controls Nogueira en route to the win.

Prediction: Couture by decision

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Anderson Silva, Brandon Vera, Brock Lesnar, Chris Leben, Demian Maia, Frank Mir, Houston Alexander, Josh Koscheck, Keith Jardine, Lyoto Machida, Randy Couture, Ricardo Almeida, Thiago Silva, Tim Sylvia, UFC