UFC 103 Preview and Picks

Tonight, UFC 103 goes down in Dallas, Texas, with a very exciting card that is somehow being overlooked a bit, due to the lack of a title fight.  Even without any belts on the line, though, tonight’s fights surely won’t disappoint, with a number of intriguing matchups taking place, including Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort in a fight with heavy implications for two separate divisions.

Without any further ado, let’s get right into the preview and picks for tonight’s main card bouts, which are just hours away!

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

In one of a few fights tonight that could be Fight of the Year material (at least on paper), two electrifying strikers will take to the cage as Kampmann, who was supposed to be fighting Mike Swick for a shot at the welterweight title, faces Daley, who will be making his UFC debut.  Daley is well known to educated fans who may have seen him fight in Cage Rage, Strikeforce, or the now-defunct EliteXC.  Daley is a very polished striker who can definitely handle himself in the standup game, but that is not where the edge will be decided here.

I personally believe that Kampmann will be smart enough to mix in his wrestling and ground game with his usual dynamic striking, especially because Daley is the best striker he has faced in awhile.  There is simply too much on the line here for Kampmann to foolishly kickbox with a man who he can instead get the better of on the ground.  With neither fighter having a clear advantage in the standup, I have to go with Kampmann because he is a more well-rounded fighter, and he will most likely have a game plan that emphasizes that fact.

Prediction: Kampmann by submission

Hermes Franca vs. Tyson Griffin

Hermes Franca hasn’t been able to get things going the last couple of years.  He had the chance of a lifetime when he finally got a title shot against then-lightweight champion Sean Sherk two years ago, but lost the fight and subsequently was suspended for a failed drug test.  His comeback fight a year later was a decision loss to Frankie Edgar, and though he got back in the “W” column three months after, a torn ACL has kept him out of action since then.

Meanwhile, Tyson Griffin has only lost twice in his UFC tenure- to Edgar and Sherk, as well.  This fight will therefore determine who will go towards the top of the food chain in the division- and a likely rematch with either Edgar or Sherk- and who will be taking another step back from the title picture at 155.  Griffin’s two losses aren’t the only things holding him back- though he has been in some great fights, he’s only finished his opponent in one out of his six UFC wins.  While a long winning streak will get you a title shot in the UFC, finishing a couple of fights will go a long way towards expediting that process.

Unfortunately, Griffin won’t be finishing Franca.  This fight could be very exciting, with both fighters liking to stand up and throw big punches.  If Franca can’t land his huge right hand though, he will likely end up on the losing side of a decision, especially if Griffin decides to assert his wrestling advantage.  Franca is a good grappler, but I don’t see him submitting Griffin.

Prediction: Griffin by decision

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

Trigg summed this one up by saying that Koscheck is like a younger version of himself, with more speed than he had.  I think he may be giving himself a bit too much credit though, as Koscheck has already displayed better boxing skills than Trigg has even to this point of his career, and is a more decorated wrestler, to boot.  Koscheck, of course, is trying to get back towards the top of the division after a fluky setback at the hands of the nevertheless talented Paulo Thiago knocked him down a peg or two.

We’ll have to see if Koscheck is a bit more leery of letting his hands go, now that he knows he can, in fact, be knocked out.  Previously, Koscheck was quite vocal of his excitement towards his improving standup and had become increasingly aggressive in that area, but will he take it down a notch to play it a bit safer this time around? 

I’m even more interested to see what Trigg will bring to the table.  Trigg was always one of those welterweights who was very good, but just not as good as the elite welterweights of his time (Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre).  He has been on a roll since joining Xtreme Couture, and I’m very curious as to how he will approach this fight.  To be honest, I just don’t see how he will beat an opponent who seems to be better than him at every area of the sport.  Then again, I’m pretty impressed by Koscheck and think he is a future world champion.  In this one, I think Trigg once again loses when facing an elite fighter.

Prediction: Koscheck by KO/TKO

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Junior dos Santos

It is always tough to evaluate fights when one of the participants has not fought up to their true ability for some time.  Such is the case with Cro Cop, who has never looked quite as good as he did towards the end of his Pride days, when he was emerging as a serious threat to Fedor Emelianenko’s crown.  In the UFC, though, he has looked unimpressive and even a bit gun-shy against average competition. 
Meanwhile, dos Santos is a bit of an unknown commodity, as he has never been out of the first round and has only fought in the UFC twice.  He’s looked extremely impressive, but we haven’t seen his complete game, and his opponents were not exactly outstanding strikers…certainly not on the level of Cro Cop.

If Cro Cop is operating anywhere close to his potential, this will be a dangerous fight for dos Santos.  Everything that I’ve seen and heard indicates to me that dos Santos is very confident coming off of his two devastating knockout wins in the UFC thus far, which tells me that he will go ahead and stand with Cro Cop.  That’s a bad decision.  I could definitely be wrong, but the Cro Cop who I expect to show up will capitalize on dos Santos’ over-aggressiveness at some point in their fight.

Prediction: Cro Cop by KO/TKO

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

This is really the tale of two very different fighters, at least in respect to how they are regarded within the MMA world.  You have one fighter who dominated his division for quite some time and has only lost to the very best (Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida).  Then, you have a fighter who continues to be regarded as one of the most skilled on the planet, despite the fact that he has not been able to sustain a high level of performance for more than a few fights here and there during his long career.  Even leading up to this fight, fans and pundits alike seem to be overestimating Belfort and underestimating Franklin.

I don’t know why Franklin can’t get any respect- as mentioned before, he’s only lost to three truly elite fighters.  He has an excellent all-around skill set and is a very intelligent fighter when the bell sounds.  His composure along with his underrated standup and wrestling make him a tough fight for any opponent.  Meanwhile, I don’t get how people can proclaim that Belfort is “back” again with any degree of confidence.  How many times have we heard that?  Given that Belfort is training in a great camp now and appears to be very focused and ready to go, but let’s give Franklin a little credit- even at his best, Belfort is in for a tough fight.

There is always the chance that Belfort catches Franklin.  Franklin is far from impossible to rock with a good punch or two (as seen in his last fight against Wanderlei Silva).  However, Franklin has excellent recovery once he’s hurt, even though Belfort’s speed would seem to ensure that Franklin won’t get the chance to recuperate if he is dazed by a punch.  I don’t think this one will hit the ground often, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Franklin take Belfort down.  Belfort is a jiu-jitsu black belt, but he won’t sub Franklin.  I think that Franklin will take this one by a judges’ decision, though Belfort will provide plenty of memorable moments in what could be a really great fight.

Prediction: Franklin by decision

by Jon Hartley for Fightmania.com

Tags: Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson, Fedor Emelianenko, Frankie Edgar, Georges St. Pierre, Josh Koscheck, Junior Dos Santos, Lyoto Machida, Martin Kampmann, Matt Hughes, Mike Swick, Paul Daley, Paulo Thiago, Rich Franklin, Sean Sherk, Strikeforce, UFC, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva