UFC 104 Breakdown and Predictions

Everybody always says that they plan on winning. In some circumstances a fight will happen where both fighters actually manage to accomplish a lot of the things that they had planned, resulting in a close decision. More often than not, however, one fighter is able to impose his will and win the fight in decisive fashion.

Examples include what Georges St. Pierre did against BJ Penn, or what Floyd Mayweather Jr. did against Juan Manuel Marquez.

I’m sure Marquez had some plan to defeat Mayweather, but it clearly wasn’t enough. Likewise, I’m sure that Shogun has a plan for Lyoto Machida, but will that be enough?

Without further adieu, it’s time to predict the fights.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua

In the build-up to the showdown between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua, the contrast is often made between Machida’s Karate, and Rua’s Muay Thai. This contrast is likely going to be the biggest factor in the fight.

Machida rarely gets hit in any of his fights, while Rua is more of a brawler, and has never been afraid of exchanging shots. Attempting to exchange shots with Machida would probably be to Rua’s detriment, since Machida tends to hurt people with his powerful left cross. Taking even a few of these shots would be devastating to Rua.

While I’m sure that Rua has tried to figure out some ways of dealing with Lyoto’s striking game, I tend to think whatever strategy he has for striking is bound to fail unless he mixes his strikes with a versatile strategy.

Aside from being unique fighters with different styles, Rua and Machida are both possess well-rounded skill sets. For Rua to be successful, he’ll need to mix his striking with takedown attempts in order to disrupt the rhythm of Machida.

However, even if Rua is able to disrupt Machida’s rhythm, the fight then only becomes more even, as both fighters should be similar in terms of skill. Given that Lyoto already knows how to beat fighters like Rua, while Rua has never beaten anybody like Machida, the natural advantage must go to Machida.

Expect Rua to have difficulty in his attempts to bring the fight down to the mat. Once Rua realizes that he can’t take Lyoto down, he’ll begin to lose his patience. When that happens, Lyoto will win.

Lyoto Machida by KO Round 2

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez

If Ben Rothwell has advantages in this fight, they come in the areas of size, power, and experience. Rothwell is a big 265 lb fighter with enough punching power to knock out Velasquez if he lands some combinations.

Unfortunately for Rothwell, what Velasquez lacks in size, he gains in skill. Should Velasquez decide to engage in a striking battle with Rothwell, Velasquez is likely going to be the faster. Because of this, he’s going to be able to avoid absorbing the worst of Ben Rothwell’s punches. Velasquez might just be able to win the fight on the feet, but Velasquez’s real advantage is in terms of wrestling.

Velasquez should be able to take Rothwell down nearly at will, and while he may not be able to hold Rothwell down, he will be able to tire him out.

Once Rothwell tires, expect Velasquez to silence his remaining critics by stopping the fight with powerful ground and pound.

Cain Velasquez by TKO Round 3

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer

This is a battle between the ultra-ripped and muscular Tibau, and the lanky Josh Neer. Their physical differences aside, these are another couple of well-rounded fighters. Neer probably has the advantage in striking, especially due to his reach. If he wants to win, Neer should try to keep the fight standing for as long as possible.

Despite a standing advantage, Neer’s biggest weakness is his wrestling. Like Velasquez against Rothwell, Tibau should have few problems getting enough takedowns to at least earn a decision. Submission attempts are possible on both sides, but Tibau should be a little bit more technical in terms of submissions and ground control.

Tibau by decision

Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson

This card might go down as the card where wrestling rules the day. Fisher will be the better striker, but Stevenson should do well enough to get the takedowns, and control the fight on the ground.

Stevenson by decision

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

Johnson will be looking to knock Yoshida out, while Yoshida will be looking to secure a big Judo throw and submission. I expect Johnson’s reach and striking power to pose some serious problems for Yoshida on the feet, although Yoshida will be dangerous if he can get Johnson down.

The first few minutes should tell the tale, because if Yoshida can’t get Johnson down to the mat, he can’t win the fight.

Johnson by KO Round 2

Tags: Cain Velasquez, Georges St. Pierre, Joe Stevenson, Lyoto Machida, UFC