UFC 109 Preview and Picks

If you’re looking for some last-minute analysis and predictions for UFC 109: Relentless, you’ve come to the right place.  The event, headlined by UFC Hall of Famers Randy Couture and Mark Coleman settling a score that was supposed to be taken care of years ago, will be airing in just a couple of hours.  Here are my analysis and definitely-not-guaranteed-to-be-accurate picks for tonight’s fights.

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

I’m looking forward to this fight even though I believe there is very little drama to be found here.  The reason that there is very little reason to question the outcome is also the reason I’m excited: Maia’s jiu-jitsu is outstanding.  It’s been awhile since we saw a fighter submit good opponents with the kind of quickness and fluidity that Maia has displayed.  When the fight hits the mat, it doesn’t matter where Maia is- top, bottom, guard, whatever- you can bet that there’s a good chance his opponent will be tapping within a minute or so.

I don’t want to totally discredit Miller, who has made a living to this point taking people down, controlling and submitting them.  He’s never been submitted (or finished, for that matter) and appears to have a bright future in the division.  However, his usual gameplan puts him right where he doesn’t want to be: on the mat with a fighter that sports perhaps the most dangerous jiu-jitsu game in MMA right now.

If Miller is smart, he will do everything in his power to keep this fight upright, and with his wrestling skills, he may be able to frustrate Maia with his ability to do so.  While striking isn’t Miller’s greatest strength, it is absolutely Maia’s biggest weakness, and that’s the only way I see Miller winning this fight.  Unfortunately, Maia will resort to any means to get this fight to the mat, including pulling guard, and I think that before the end of this fight, he will be successful in turning this into a grappling match- which is a match Miller can’t win.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

This Paulo Thiago vs. AKA storyline is funny for a few reasons.  It is reminiscent of professional wrestling booking, where a stable of wrestlers would have one poor schmuck face each one of them before finally getting what he wants (in this case, a title shot at some point).  It almost seems like a nice little feud…except for the fact that there is no real animosity between Thiago and his former opponents Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, nor his current one in Swick.

In any case, Thiago has come out looking pretty good so far in his two fight series against the American Kickboxing Academy’s finest welterweights.  After a surprise knockout against Josh Koscheck, who got a little too comfortable in their fight, and a decision loss to perennial title contender Jon Fitch, Thiago looks like he belongs in the upper ranks of the division right now.  Of course, there is likely only room for one of these two in those ranks, and Swick is definitely looking to bounce back from his disappointing loss to Dan Hardy.

The standup portions of the bout should be pretty competitive, with Thiago throwing somewhat wild, but powerful strikes and Swick making use of good counter-punching and quickness.  I don’t see Thiago being able to take Swick to the ground, and I really believe that most of this fight will take place standing up.  In the end, I think that Swick will be a little more precise with his punching and grind out a decision victory, since Thiago has shown to have a good chin so far.

Prediction: Swick by decision

Frank Trigg vs. Matt Serra

In an event full of underrated fights, this is one that I feel is being badly overlooked.  These two still have plenty in the tank, despite some rather sadistic matchmaking that paired the returning Trigg with a younger, better fighter in Josh Koscheck.  Similarly, Serra may not have the finishing skills to reliably beat the best wrestlers in the division, but both of these guys are quality fighters and this will be a good, competitive fight.

Some may figure this to be a classic wrestler vs. jiu-jitsu specialist matchup, but I don’t think it will play out that way.  Serra hasn’t used his excellent jiu-jitsu credentials to get the frequency of submission victories that you would expect for a person of his talent, and Trigg should be fine on the mat with Serra, as long as he avoids scrambles and other situations where he can easily make a bad mistake.

The decision to take the fight to the floor will likely only be Trigg’s to make, as I don’t see Serra having the tools to force Trigg to the mat.  At the same time, Serra will unquestionably be looking to blast away on Trigg whenever the two are standing in range of one another, and Trigg will be at a decided disadvantage in that realm.  I can see this fight going two ways: a Trigg decision victory after playing it relatively safe and getting takedowns, or a Serra knockout when Trigg takes a couple on the chin.  We saw that Serra is not as active as he once was off his back during his fight against Matt Huges, so if Trigg can take Serra down quickly and often, he can win.  Still, I think Serra will catch Trigg at some point.

Prediction: Serra by KO/TKO

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen has come quite literally out of nowhere and somehow gotten within one fight of a title shot.  Perhaps being unwise enough to talk trash about the incomparable Anderson Silva pays dividends in that respect?  I saw this fight as vintage “what else do we do with this guy?” matchmaking after Marquardt’s rumored next opponent (Dan Henderson) flew the coop to join Strikeforce, and never even thought of the possibility of Sonnen being in the title picture.  I mean, 4-2 in your last 6 fights (both losses being by way of submission) isn’t usually the kind of record that gets you to the top of a competitive division.  Still, if Sonnen can pull off a win over Marquardt, I suppose he deserves the shot as much as anybody, right?

That’s a big “if”, though, because Sonnen simply has no way to finish Marquardt that I can see.  Sonnen’s greatest assets are undoubtedly his takedowns, which have served him well over a solid career but only allow him to change the fight’s level, not necessarily end it.  Sure, Marquardt’s takedown defense isn’t exactly iron-clad, though he will stuff a good number of them if Sonnen does not set them up well.  However, Sonnen is likely to do little once he does get the fight to the mat other than control Marquardt as long as he can and pepper him with a shot here and there.

Meanwhile, anytime someone isn’t on their back, Sonnen will be in grave danger.  Marquardt has fully evolved into a top-notch counter-striker, as evidenced by his scintillating KO victory over Demian Maia, which should have earned him another shot at Anderson Silva.  Sonnen’s striking rarely looks better than Maia’s, which means he is always one ill-advised punch or kick away from saying “nighty-night” as well.  If Sonnen can constantly threaten with takedown attempts, he can wear Marquardt down or even make him leery of planting his feet to throw a powerful shot.  This is particularly true if Sonnen can take round one via takedowns and control and make Marquardt fight from behind on the scorecards.

Marquardt has good ground skills, but I don’t know that his game is right to exploit Sonnen’s obvious weaknesses while in an opposing fighter’s guard.  Also, it’s not as if Sonnen’s losses by armbar and triangle choke have made him an overly-cautious fighter from the top position.  Marquardt will probably just work to stand back up if he is taken down, allowing him another chance to put Sonnen down for good.  At some point in the fight, I think he will do just that.

Prediction: Marquardt by KO/TKO

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

Before I begin, let me say that I do like the idea of this fight.  Not as much as I would have liked Coleman vs. Tito Ortiz (who wrestles a similar style to that of Coleman), but I do like this matchup.  Having said that, let me echo everyone else on the face of the planet’s thoughts and say that Coleman has a tough, tough road ahead of him in facing Randy Couture.

Since the early days of mixed martial arts in the United States (and later on, Japan and elsewhere), the sport has been flooded with freestyle wrestlers.  However, the idea that someone with great amateur wrestling credentials will simply walk into the sport and be very good is not a fact whatsoever.  Furthermore, we have seen over the past several years that not all forms of wrestling are created equally when it comes to mixed martial arts, and the Greco-Roman style that Couture has masterfully adapted to the sport appears to be a better fit for the sport.  I believe it also gives him an advantage in this fight.

Couture, even with more of a Greco-Roman emphasis in his techniques, will stop any double-leg takedown attempt that Coleman tries from too far outside or does not set up properly.  Meanwhile, as with every Couture fight, this bout will inevitably find its way to the clinch, right up against the cage where Randy has made his money over the years.  From there, Coleman will be very much in Couture’s element, as Randy wears him down and accumulates damage from punches and the occasional knee or two.

Really, Coleman will only be at his best here if he can manage to put Randy on his back.  Couture has never been great off of his back, but has rarely been put there, either.  The question is, if and when Coleman plants him on his back, will “The Hammer” have enough left in the tank to pour it on and stop the fight?

In the standup portion of the fight, the advantage goes unquestionably to Couture, who has developed a very technically sound striking game that has worked well for him over the years.  His weakness, of course, will be his chin, as he does not have a granite jaw, though he also does not go down easily.  Still, Coleman does have some power, and if he can somehow clip Couture, it can change the course of the bout almost instantly.

However, I just see too many areas where Coleman is at a disadvantage, here.  He will be forced to fight a very simple, almost one-dimensional fight, while Couture will be comfortable (and dangerous) in several situations as the fight goes on.  That, along with Couture’s massive edge in conditioning, is why I just can’t give this one to Coleman.

Prediction: Couture by decision

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