UFC 110: Prelims Preview and Picks

Tonight (or tomorrow afternoon, if you’re an Aussie) UFC 110 will be live from Australia, featuring a number of big fights, including Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira against Cain Velasquez and Wanderlei Silva taking on Michael Bisping.  The preliminary bouts, while not stocked with big names, also present some interesting and entertaining matchups, including fights between Stephan Bonnar and Krzysztof Soszynski, as well as a fight between returning fan favorite Chris Lytle and Brian Foster.

A quick note before I begin with my views on tonight’s fights: to those unaware, the fight between Elvis Sinosic and Chris Haseman has been pulled due to a shoulder injury sustained by Sinosic.  Obviously, that fight is not included in this preview for that very reason.

Igor Pokrajac vs. James Te Huna

You see, this is the problem with previewing the preliminary bouts.  For every Bonnar vs. Soszynski, there’s a Pokrajac vs. Te Huna where there is very little to go on to make a prediction that’s anything more than a coin-flip.  But hey, you’re not here to read my whining, right?  Well, presumably, anyway.

Thanks to the wonders of the internet, I tracked down footage of various quality of both fighters against opponents (also of various quality).  Again, the problem is that many of these fights, like many fights on smaller shows, are ridiculous mismatches where guys like Pokrajac and Te Huna simply swarm over undersized, under-trained and under-talented opponents.  Then, we have Pokrajac’s previous UFC appearance, where he lost a unanimous decision to top 20 light heavyweight Vladimir Matyushenko.  That’s not exactly anything to be ashamed of, though a fighter with a future as a contender in the UFC would need to win such a bout.

Both fighters like to overwhelm opponents, and Pokrajac seems to slightly prefer taking the fight to the mat, though he is one of Cro Cop’s sparring partners.  However, Te Huna looks bigger and stronger, and I believe he will be able to dictate much of the fight.  Pokrajac throws the straighter punches, while Te Huna mixes up his shots, but favors wider punches.  Still, I think Te Huna will put the pressure on and be able to take this one by decision due to control and aggression.

Prediction: Te Huna by decision

CB Dollaway vs. Goran Reljic

Oh, CB Dollaway.  How I dread your fights.  Well, I shouldn’t say that, because though Dollaway is utterly one-dimensional, his fights often end eventfully due to his poor submission defense.  Still, Dollaway is very much a one-trick pony who has not even developed the well-rounded skills that his training partner, Ryan Bader (who’s not exactly a superb all-around fighter yet himself) has at this stage.  Dollaway has been able to win against the likes of Jesse Taylor, Mike Massenzio and Jay Silva strictly based on his athleticism and wrestling, but he doesn’t fare so well against even slightly well-rounded fighters.

And Goran Reljic is a very well-rounded fighter.  Sporting an 8-0 record and coming off a nearly two-year layoff due to back problems, Reljic’s last appearance in the octagon was a very impressive TKO win over Wilson Gouveia at UFC 84.  Reljic is a polished striker and has great submission offense for Dollaway to deal with, as well.  The only advantage that Dollaway has (with the possible exception of brute strength) is wrestling.

The problem is, wrestling is not usually a finishing skill.  It can put you in great situations (like a position to pound out a stoppage) and let you dictate where the fight goes, but if your opponent is a threat at all times to knock you out or submit you, what good is that?  I’m sure Dollaway has been working hard to round out his game, but for whatever reason, some great wrestlers acclimate to the sport much quicker than others, and Dollaway has struggled thus far to integrate better striking and jiu-jitsu into his skill set.  I think Reljic will finish this fight, and I’ll go ahead and say by submission, only because I think if he tags Dollaway standing up, Dollaway will resort to instincts and shoot for the takedown, prompting a submission finish.

Prediction: Reljic by submission

Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

Bonnar has had a tough go of things for awhile now, with a suspension for steroid use and length injury, as well as a two-fight losing streak going into tonight’s bout.  To make matters worse, he’s now taking on Soszynski, who has really impressed me since his time on The Ultimate Fighter, winning six in a row before dropping a decision to Brandon Vera.

The thing is, Bonnar is linked to Forrest Griffin in my mind in more than just one way.  To me, Bonnar is very similar to Griffin, in that he does not really have great finishing skills in any area.  Bonnar doesn’t have true knockout power and, though he is very competent on the ground, is not much of a threat to submit anyone, either.  The difference is that Griffin has worked to polish what he can and has jumped up a couple of levels, while Bonnar does not seem to have improved much over the last several years.

Soszynski, meanwhile, is a very aggressive fighter who will be able to outwrestle Bonnar if he wants to.  Standing up, Bonnar may be a bit better technically, but Soszynski will have the advantage of not having to worry about Bonnar’s power, which is a luxury that Bonnar will not share.  Both fighters have good cardio and Bonnar is a very tough fighter to finish, but I don’t see how he can pose a sustained threat to Soszynski in this one.

Prediction: Soszynski by decision

Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster

If there’s any justice, Lytle, like Bonnar, will always have a job in the UFC.  You would think that four straight Fight of the Night awards, along with a successful (if not legendary) fourteen career fights in the octagon would ensure that.  Even if he’s just on the prelims, Lytle should fight in the UFC until the day he hangs up the gloves for good.

Now, with that done, I’ll get off my soapbox and break down this fight a bit.  While Lytle is obviously one of my favorite fighters, I’m not under the impression that he’s going to suddenly take the welterweight division by storm or anything.  He does have his faults, and his newfound approach to fighting very aggressively has become one of them.  His boxing, which was once much more technical, has devolved into wild swinging much of the time, which I think is why we have seen him looking tired in the third round of recent fights.

Still, Lytle is incredibly hard to finish (an incredible 15 of his 17 career losses are by decision, and the other two were due to cuts), and has a very good all-around skill set.  Meanwhile, Foster has just as incredibly never been to a decision in his career, so something’s got to give here.  Foster looked good in his decimation of Brock Larson, but also was tapped by Rick Story, so he’s capable of making mistakes that can cost him a fight.  Against Lytle, such mistakes will prove deadly, as I’ve long believed that Lytle’s submission skills- not his boxing (though he has competed professionally with success)- is his strong suit.

Lytle is not a guy who will catch you with a sneaky triangle off of his back most of the time.  He’s a fighter that instead takes advantage of a mistake made in transition from one position to the next or during a scramble.  I think this fight will be very exciting and high-paced, with Foster eventually making such a mistake in a fight that he may even be winning to that point, and Lytle may very well win another bonus tonight.

Prediction: Lytle by submission

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Tags: Brian Foster, CB Dollaway, Chris Lytle, Goran Reljic, Krzysztof Soszynski, Stephan Bonnar, UFC 110