UFC 112 Preview and Picks

MMA events are coming left and right this month, and UFC 112 keeps the momentum going with two of the organization’s most dominant champions in action.  Along with two title fights, we’ll watch as Matt Hughes will try to add a win over a second Gracie to his already-impressive resumé, as Renzo Gracie steps into the UFC’s octagon for the first time.  Here are my picks for each of the main card fights today:

Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz

Grove’s first fight in 2010 comes as he has won 3 out of his last 4 fights.  After losing consecutive bouts to Patrick Cote and Jorge Rivera in devastating fashion, Grove has beaten Evan Tanner, Jason Day and Jake Rosholt, with only a loss to Ricardo Almeida to stop his momentum along the way.  Now, he’ll face the 7-1 Mark Munoz, who sports an impressive wrestling pedigree but has yet to truly impress me in the UFC.  He’s won twice since his sloppy fight with Mark Hamill, which incredibly ended with Munoz being KOed by a head kick from Hamill, but it’s hard to imagine him having any advantages other than wrestling against Grove.

Sure, Munoz may have more pure power than Grove, but he won’t be able to use it unless he has substantially refined his standup skills since we last saw him.  Grove will enjoy a “definitive” reach advantage (just wait- Goldberg will say it), which he has the ability to use effectively.  Munoz will be even more likely to take Grove down once he gets a taste of being frustrated at the end of Grove’s punches, but even then, I give the edge to Kendall.  Munoz has a tendency to gas later in his fights, and I think that will happen here, leading to a mistake that allows Grove to finish by submission.

Prediction: Grove by submission

Terry Etim vs. Rafael dos Anjos

What may not be the most attractive matchup to casual UFC fans should make for a compelling and exciting fight nonetheless, as these two should definitely push the pace in their bout.  Etim carries a four-fight win streak with him into the cage, while dos Anjos has won two in a row after leg-kicking Rob Emerson straight out of the UFC in his last bout.

Both of these guys have looked their worst against good wrestlers who can avoid submissions, and I don’t see Etim putting dos Anjos on his back in this one.  Furthermore, I don’t see a submission happening here anyway, but dos Anjos’ superior takedowns will help him to win a decision, should it come to that.  Otherwise, the two are fairly evenly-matched, as dos Anjos will try to wear down Etim with leg kicks, while Etim will look to push the pace and hit dos Anjos early and often.  I’ll take dos Anjos in a competitive fight.

Prediction: dos Anjos by decision

Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie

Renzo Gracie will make his long-awaited UFC debut at 43 years old, with a fairly memorable career already behind him.  He’ll step right in to face the most dominant welterweight champion the organization has ever had, Matt Hughes.  Hughes may appear to be well past his prime, with three recent losses on his record, but many fail to remember that those losses were against Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves.  Hughes would still beat the majority of the UFC’s welterweights, and could give any one of them besides perhaps GSP and Alves a run for their money on any given night.

If anything, inactivity has hurt Hughes, as the last time that he had three fights in one year was 2006.  The same applies to Gracie, who looked good in his last three fights, all of which took place from late 2006 to early 2007.  The compelling part of this fight is that it will put both guys’ strengths against one another, as Hughes will definitely resort to takedowns, control and good old ground and pound, while Gracie will be more than comfortable working off of his back for submissions.

Will Gracie be able to pull one off, though?  I don’t think so.  Since bashing Hughes has become the popular thing to do over the last few years, many have taken their enjoyment of rooting against the former champion too far and convinced themselves that he somehow is not as good as he showed to be earlier in his career.  These people are dead wrong.  I personally wouldn’t call Hughes one-dimensional, because taking the fight to the ground and being able to fight well on the mat once you’ve done so are two different things.  Hughes is as good as anyone in the sport at controlling opponents while doing damage and staying out of trouble, and that will be on full display tonight.

Meanwhile, Renzo obviously has an outstanding jiu-jitsu background, but hasn’t always transitioned those skills well to MMA- he has one submission victory in the last ten years.  Renzo will threaten from his back, but again, Hughes will fight conservatively enough to stay out of trouble.  This is far from the first time that Hughes will have put a jiu-jitsu black belt on his back, after all.  While standing, Renzo will enjoy a technical advantage, but neither man has the power to put the other away in that realm.  Hughes takes a competitive, but clear decision win here.

Prediction: Hughes by decision

BJ Penn vs. Frankie Edgar

I’m actually excited for this fight.  Penn is clearly in the prime of his career, as he continues to make outstanding opponents look absolutely baffled in the cage.  If he wins this one as decisively as he has his previous title defenses, it’s hard to say who can really challenge him in the lightweight division.  After all, Edgar is really a better version of fellow lightweights Gray Maynard and Tyson Griffin.  He sports similar wrestling ability, but crisper standup than either of those fighters.

If this fight is like Penn’s other recent efforts, expect to see a good amount of standup action early on.  Edgar should be competitive in this realm, as his boxing is crisp and technically sound.  However, Penn’s jab should be as excellent as ever, and if he can avoid possible leg kicks from Edgar, he should be able to control the bout.  Edgar will face an uphill battle if (when?) he chooses to take Penn down, too.  Penn’s takedown defense has really become outstanding over the last few years, and if he concedes a takedown, he has his ridiculous jiu-jitsu game to rely upon.

Edgar will be in danger at all times in this bout, which is something that I can’t say for Penn.  While Edgar will not be steamrolled in the way that Penn’s previous opponents were, I don’t see any way for him to win this fight, save for the same “puncher’s chance” that is present in nearly every MMA fight.  I think Penn will wear Edgar down over the balance of the fight, possibly putting him away in the late rounds.

Prediction: Penn by submission

Anderson Silva vs. Damien Maia

Maia leapfrogs fellow contenders Vitor Belfort and Chael Sonnen to take on Silva, otherwise known as “the world’s best fighter”.  It’s no small task, yet I believe Maia is sincere in his intentions to take the fight to Silva rather than playing it safe.  Therefore, I’m not expecting another bout like Silva’s fight with Thales Leites, thankfully.

Furthermore, Maia’s takedowns are far better than that of Leites, and I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see Maia put Silva on his back at some point.  If that happens, we’ll experience our first real drama of the fight, as Maia is absolutely dangerous on the mat.  Silva is no slouch, either, but has never appeared to have the technical acumen that Maia has displayed in his MMA career so far.

Of course, when Maia will be able to take Silva down is anyone’s guess, and every second that the fight remains vertical, Maia is in grave danger.  To attempt a takedown, he will have to navigate through the most accurate and deadly striking that this sport has to offer, and attempts to close the distance may place him within Silva’s Muay Thai plum, which is not a good place to be.  While this fight won’t last as long as Penn-Edgar, I actually think Maia has a better chance to win than Edgar does.  However, while Maia’s aggressiveness could conceivably help him to shock the world, it will more than likely lead to openings that Silva will exploit in yet another amazing performance by the long-time middleweight champ.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

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Tags: Anderson Silva, BJ Penn, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, Kendall Grove, Mark Munoz, Matt Hughes, Rafael dos Anjos, Renzo Gracie, Terry Etim, UFC 112