UFC 113 Preview and Picks

The UFC will attempt to put not only a very strange March, but also a controversial title fight from last year behind it with tonight’s UFC 113 card.  In the main event, we will finally (hopefully) get a resolution to the months-old question of who should be wearing the light heavyweight title: Lyoto Machida or Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.  Also, the next challenger for Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title will be decided, as Josh Koscheck will take on Paul Daley.  Finally, there are rumors of a guy who goes by the name of “Kimbo Slice” taking part, but I don’t know anything about that.  On with the preview and picks!

Sam Stout vs. Jeremy Stephens

While Stout is known as a technical striker who uses all of his weapons efficiently, Stephens is a big swinger who is remembered fondly for his highlight reel knockout of Rafael dos Anjos.  Since that win, though, Stephens has had mixed results, dropping fights to Joe Lauzon and Gleison Tibau before getting back in the “W” column in his last fight against Justin Buchholz, who he defeated by a doctor’s stoppage.  Meanwhile, Stout has won his last two fights, against game opponents in Matt Wiman and Lauzon.

Stephens seems to have trouble when he steps up to a higher level of competition, and I think much of that has to do with his eagerness to swing for the fences.  Doing so is okay (just ask Chuck Liddell), but those who are really successful with haymakers in MMA know to pick the right opportunities and set them up properly.  Stephens has had trouble learning to do that.  Meanwhile, Stout is easy to favor in this one because of his awesome technical striking and the number of weapons that he uses.  He can work the legs of Stephens, use combinations to keep Stephens guessing, or even use the clinch to his favor, if he likes.  Stephens will always have the good old “puncher’s chance” in this one, but that chance will get slimmer and slimmer as Stout wears him down with kicks and punches.

Prediction: Stout by decision

Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher

Cote will be remembered for a long time as the other man in the cage during the first strange display of gamesmanship by Anderson Silva, which has now become a regular problem with the middleweight champion.  An unfortunate fight ended with a freak injury, as Cote re-injured his knee, which has kept him out for over a year, leading up to this fight.  His first test back from injury is a stiff one, as he will face the owner of the most unfortunate tattoo in all of MMA, Alan Belcher.  The only thing worse than a dude with a tattoo portrait of Johnny Cash is when that guy can whoop your ass in the cage, and that’s what Cote will have to deal with tonight.

Similar to in our first fight of the main card, Cote will be a somewhat one-dimensional fighter when compared to Belcher.  Belcher will undoubtedly work leg kicks and use his wide variety of weapons to thwart Cote’s plans of sending his head into orbit.  The problem here is that not only is Belcher quite possibly the better all-around fighter, but Cote is also coming off of a long layoff.  It is hard not to give Cote a little extra love for fighting in front of a wildly supportive crowd, but I’m not sure that even that will work in his favor.  I can see Cote trying to do too much and being frustrated by a more versatile striker.  If it hits the mat, neither fighter is likely to have a huge advantage, but I’d give the nod to Belcher there, too.

Prediction: Belcher by decision

Matt Mitrione vs. Kimbo Slice

A pairing of two members from the tenth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” will lead us up to the two main events of the evening.  Whenever Kimbo Slice takes to the cage, there is a certain buzz that is hard to deny, mainly because everyone is waiting for something jaw-dropping to happen.  Tonight, we might get it, as Mitrione will be more than happy to stand in front of Kimbo for three rounds, if the fight goes that long.  By the way…it won’t.

Mitrione unquestionably packs some power (watch him knock out Marcus Jones while moving backwards for evidence of that), but compared to the compact, powerful punching of Kimbo, Mitrione’s punches are sloppy and a bit slow.  Kimbo unquestionably has weaknesses in his game, as an opponent with good leg kicks could derail his attempts to add a KO to his resume, and his ground game is definitely still a weakness, too.  However, Mitrione is a good opponent for Kimbo in that he is not the man to expose any of those faults.  This fight could be wildly entertaining, and will likely end with Kimbo celebrating a knockout.

Prediction: Kimbo Slice by KO/TKO

Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley

With all due respect to Paul Daley, Koscheck will really decide who wins and loses this one.  I know you may be thinking, “why would he decide to lose?”  However, Daley is banking on just that.  As I mentioned earlier this week, Daley has been getting into the head (and under the skin) of Koscheck, questioning his manhood, his striking ability, and whether he is even a “fighter”.  This is all in an attempt to get Koscheck to stand and trade with Daley, if even for a few minutes.  Why does Daley play these games?  Because if Koscheck doesn’t decide to stand with Daley, he will have Daley on the mat as often as he feels like having him there, with little trouble.

Koscheck has shown a love for the standup game that could actually hinder his progress, as it did against Paulo Thiago in a fight that he was well on his way to winning.  If he falls in love with his own impressive power and starts spamming overhand rights, Daley will easily expose his opponent’s basic striking and counter-punch his way to an explosive win.  Could Koscheck KO Daley?  Sure, it’s possible, especially since Daley seems to believe that Koscheck can’t hurt him, which is silly.  However, if Koscheck decides to cater to his own best interests instead of what the fans want, there is almost a 0% chance of Daley winning this fight.  He won’t submit Koscheck, and he won’t be able to stay off of his back.  I think Koscheck will be smart enough to do what’s right and earn himself another shot at GSP.

Prediction: Koscheck by submission

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

Everyone and their mother has already weighed in on this matchup, and it is an intriguing one, no doubt.  I have to say that my enthusiasm for this fight has grown as it has approached, and I’m eager to see how each fighter will adjust to his previous strategy.  I don’t think Shogun will look much different than he did in the last fight, except that he will let his hands and feet go with much greater frequency, especially earlier in the fight.  Shogun is not going to be satisfied with another close decision, and he will not make the mistake of letting the judges decide his future again.  If this fight goes the distance, it won’t be for lack of effort from Shogun.

Of course, this in turn will open up opportunities for Machida, otherwise known as the most dangerous counter-striker in the sport today.  Still, Shogun’s outstanding ability to mix leg and body kicks into his combinations will make it hard for Machida to really capitalize on his counter striking.  When Machida counters with a straight left, for instance, he will do so as he is eating a leg kick or body kick, taking a lot of the force out of his punch and leaving Shogun conscious and ready to continue his attack.

The real wild card here is whether this fight will hit the mat, as well as who will put it there.  There are a lot of opinions about each fighter’s ground game, with some citing Machida “almost” being triangled by Tito Ortiz, while others pointing to Shogun having been subbed by Forrest Griffin.  The thing is, the element of surprise weighed heavily in both of those events, and many fighters get submitted in a position similar to Shogun’s after having gassed or been beat up throughout a fight.  It’s not as if Griffin subbed Shogun in a grappling match.

Both fighters are more than apt on the mat, and I think that Shogun’s strength advantage, as well as his tendency to move forward, will help him to land the takedowns, if there are any.  I doubt either fighter will submit the other without some serious wearing down taking place first, which would require a good dose of ground and pound for awhile before becoming a factor.

I can see a thousand different things happening here.  I will fly the Shogun flag, though, and imagine that the Shogun of Pride’s last days is back.  He will wear down Machida with kicks to the legs and body, and his increased aggressiveness will lead to a late stoppage that shocks the world, or at least part of it.

Prediction: Shogun by KO/TKO

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Tags: Alan Belcher, Jeremy Stephens, Josh Koscheck, Kimbo Slice, Lyoto Machida, Matt Mitrione, Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua, Patrick Cote, Paul Daley, Sam Stout, UFC 113