UFC 114 Preview and Picks

While some UFC cards over the past half-year or so have come like a thief in the night to rake in your hard-earned cash with a suitable but unexciting lineup of fights, UFC 114 does not fit that bill. With a card stacked with names that casual fans will recall and hardcore fans will highly anticipate seeing in action, this may be as close to a “stacked” card as we will get in the post-UFC 100 era of the promotion. The main event, of course, pits two former light heavyweight champions against one another, as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad Evans will attempt to settle their feud with fisticuffs.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway

It is understandable if some of the people who you watch the fights with tonight see this as a blatant attempt by Joe Silva to get Sanchez back in the “W” column. After all, Hathaway has only fought in the UFC three times, all of which have been preliminary bouts. However, Hathaway is a young fighter with a world of potential that comes in sporting a 12-0 record. This isn’t “get the star a win” matchmaking, but instead another example of the “UFC wins either way” matchmaking we have seen over the last few years. If Sanchez wins, he’s right back in the mix at welterweight and has put the BJ Penn fight a little further behind him. If Hathaway wins, the UFC has a young star possibly in the making. It’s a win-win for the UFC, for sure.

However, Hathaway may not have the refined talent at this point in his career to defeat an experienced fighter like Sanchez. Sanchez will have the superior wrestling and ground game overall, and it is unlikely that Hathaway’s effective ground and pound will be too helpful tonight. Meanwhile, while Sanchez’s standup skills are a little too “textbook”, Hathaway does not have the counterpunching skills to consistently penalize Sanchez for his less-than-unpredictable approach. The other factors seem to benefit Sanchez, as well, as he has always shown to have a solid enough chin and is never in anything less than spectacular shape for a fight. In a few years, this fight may be a bit different, but tonight, it’s all going to go in Sanchez’s favor.

Prediction: Sanchez by decision

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz

A withdrawal by Forrest Griffin gives us the night’s easiest fight to predict, as the brave but overmatched Brilz will take on what will easily be the toughest fight of his career. He faces Nogueira, who will step into the UFC Octagon for the second time tonight after soundly defeating the talented Luis Cane at UFC 106. Nogueira is right in the mix for a title shot after Mauricio “Shogun” Rua defends against the winner of tonight’s main event, and should be the next in line after that, barring a loss in the meantime or a decision by Zuffa to put the more marketable Randy Couture in that slot after he mops up the cage with James Toney.

At this stage of his career, Nogueira is probably a better competitor in his weight class than his more well-known brother is at heavyweight, and he has a tremendously well-rounded game that will give Brilz fits. Brilz is a far less dynamic competitor than Nogueira, and usually likes to work out of the clinch from what we have seen in his UFC tenure. This kind of basic and predictable strategy will not do him any favors with an opponent who can outstrike him, submit him, or pretty much do whatever he wants with him. Brilz brings a pretty impressive record in with him, as he has lost just once in almost nine years (!). Of course, he built his record by beating no names and the occasional quality fighter, while Nogueira has defeated the likes of Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Kazushi Sakuraba, and more. Brilz, like John Hathaway, is nicknamed “The Hitman”, but neither will be executing their mark tonight.

Prediction: Nogueira by submission

Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow

Fans have been clamoring to see more of Duffee since his seven-second KO over Tim Hague way back at UFC 102. Following the fastest KO in the history of the UFC* (Duane “Bang” Ludwig’s UFC Fight Night 3 knockout of Jonathan Goulet was faster, but was timed at 11 seconds for reasons that I still do not understand…perhaps because they were never given), Duffee will try to do what Shane Carwin has done by continuing his undefeated streak, complete with KO/TKO finishes in each one. Meanwhile, Russow also hasn’t fought since UFC 102, so each man will be coming off of a nine-month layoff tonight. Other than that, the differences could not be more glaring.

Duffee sports a physique that got him the cover of Muscle & Fitness. Russow…not so much. Duffee has ended his fights in explosive fashion. With two exceptions, Russow has always won by submission or decision. Duffee sports a well-rounded game and packs the power to end the fight at any moment. Russow is more of a one-dimensional grappler who focuses on getting fights to the mat, then working for a submission. Duffee has a good chance to win this fight. Russow has a good chance to be rendered unconscious at some point tonight. See what I mean?

Seriously though, Russow may have the advantage when it comes to wrestling technique, but he will be attempting to take advantage of that technique against a much stronger and more athletic opponent, who also has the ability to put Russow down for good after any possible mistake. It may not come early in the fight, but Duffee will either explode to a finish early or outlast Russow and put him away late.

Prediction: Duffee by KO/TKO

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller

There is very little chance that you (yes, you) do not care what happens in this particular fight. If you are like the majority of MMA fans, you definitely care one way or another. There is a slight chance that you will be pulling for Bisping to right the ship after two losses in three fights have put him in a bit of a tailspin. However, there is a much better chance that you are hoping to see a reenactment of the merciless beating that Dan Henderson put on Bisping a few fights ago. To take it a little bit further, there is a pretty good chance that you will be the only person at your UFC party who knows who the hell Dan Miller is.

Miller comes into the fight as the victim of one of the most anonymous names in combat sports, and also with only a couple of main card appearances under his belt. Those have not gone so well for him, as evidenced by his consecutive losses to Chael Sonnen and Demian Maia. Of course, Bisping could not be more different from those two particular fighters if he tried, as he is no threat to submit Miller in highlight reel fashion or continually take him down for three rounds. Hell, the fact that Miller survived three rounds with Maia shows the kind of talent this guy has.

I don’t know that Bisping will be very happy at the conclusion of this one. Miller will put pressure on Bisping the entire fight, though most of that pressure will probably come in the form of takedowns. Bisping is very active on the bottom, if not for submissions than for scrambles that will get him back on his feet, and that could frustrate Miller. However, merely standing up after takedowns all night will not win anyone a fight. It’s doubtful that Bisping’s boxing will be enough to either put Miller away or win him a decision. Without knockout power, Miller doesn’t even have to worry about Bisping’s hands, except when it comes to possibly surrendering too many “points” in the judges’ minds by getting tagged with them.

Prediction: Miller by decision

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans

What more can be said about this matchup? The buildup alone has been pretty epic, as witnessed by the record number of viewers for the pair’s “Primetime” specials leading up to tonight’s bout, as well as the millions who were either a) intrigued by, b) annoyed by or c) amused by their trash talking on the tenth season of “The Ultimate Fighter”. Say what you want about Rampage’s “stupid act” or Rashad’s tendency to somehow get on fans’ nerves without doing anything whatsoever, though: this will be a great fight, and that would be true even if the two were golfing buddies.

That said, I am really shocked by just how many people not only expect Rampage to win, but can’t even imagine a possible route to victory for Rashad. I mean, really? Here’s a guy (Rashad, that is) who is faster than his opponent, has better wrestling skills, and a more complete striking game, as well. Add the fact that unlike his opponent, he will not be coming off of a long layoff, and that his cardio will unquestionably be better than Rampage’s, and the thinking that Rampage somehow has this one locked up is really surprising to me.

Here’s my thing: if Rashad doesn’t want Rampage to hit him, he won’t. If he doesn’t want Rampage to stand with him, he won’t. He can take Rampage down if he wants, and he is quick enough to play it safe and peck away at him standing up. Would either of these scenarios make for the most exciting fight? Of course not. They do, however, lead to Rashad getting his hand raised.

At times during Rashad’s career, such as his excellent baiting of Chuck Liddell prior to his knockout of the UFC Hall of Famer, he has looked to be every bit the tactician that we would expect from Greg Jackson’s camp. At other times, well…not so much. Even against Thiago Silva, though, I respected that Rashad stuck to his game plan throughout, even with a slight hiccup where he decided to indulge Silva in some striking in the third round. If Rashad can fight that intelligently against Rampage, Rampage will have a frustrating night ahead of him. If Rashad plays to his opponent’s strengths, like he did when he stood outside of punching range with Lyoto Machida and got slowly picked apart (before going down in a blaze of haymakers), then sure…Rampage could win.

However, when you have a superior athlete who should win the fight if he fights with a good strategy against a guy who is coming off of a long break, has questionable cardio, and may not even be emotionally invested in the sport any longer, the prediction is pretty clear for me. I’m even surprised that so many feel like Rampage’s takedown defense will be up to the challenge tonight. Really? When has he shown this vaunted takedown defense? Against Kevin Randleman years ago? Isn’t it strange that we haven’t seen any of Rampage’s slams since he joined the UFC ranks? Could that be because he’s facing fighters with, you know, actual wrestling ability?

I think Rashad puts it all together here and beats Rampage. I’m really expecting a decision, but what the hell? Let’s have some fun, here.

Prediction: Evans by KO/TKO

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Tags: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Dan Miller, Diego Sanchez, Jason Brilz, John Hathaway, Michael Bisping, Mike Russow, Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, Rashad Evans, Todd Duffee, UFC, UFC 114