UFC 115 Prelims: Preview and Picks

The preliminary bouts for UFC 115 will feature everything from a title eliminator to a fight to avoid being fired, and the athletes represented are sure to bring entertaining fights to viewers both at the arena and at home. Featuring such fighters as Tyson Griffin, Mac Danzig and David Loiseau, the preliminary fights are not to be overlooked.

Claude Patrick vs. Ricardo Funch

It’s unlikely that viewers will be familiar with either name here, as Patrick is making his UFC debut and Funch has fought just once in the organization- a unanimous decision loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 107. What you need to know is that the two fighters bring different mindsets into the cage with them, though each have had a good amount of success (Patrick is 11-1, Funch is 7-1) with their styles. Funch is often a fighter that gets by just as much on his heart and ability to escape (and survive) difficult situations as any other part of his game. Meanwhile, Patrick is a more methodical fighter who can provide an explosive finish here and there, but is more than happy to execute a technically-sound gameplan en route to a decisive win.

I was able to see Patrick fight live a few years ago at the “Miletich vs. Gracie” IFL card in Moline, IL, and was impressed with him then. With time, he has just grown into an even better and more polished fighter, which may be tough for Funch to contend with. However, unpredictable fighters like Funch often provide a difficult challenge for meticulous opponents who prefer to see things unravel the way that they envisioned them doing so. Still, I think the key here will be Patrick’s takedowns and ability to control Funch.

Prediction: Patrick by decision

Mike Pyle vs. Jesse Lennox

Pyle has just a 1-2 record in the UFC, a disappointing result for a fighter who has been touted by many hardcore fans as a very good grappler and overall competitor. Meanwhile, Lennox followed up a win in his UFC debut against Danillo Villefort with a loss to Rick Story by decision, and is also in dire need of a win here. The game plans for each fighter are fairly transparent here: Pyle will look to avoid exchanges in favor of landing a strike or two and getting out of range, hoping eventually to end up on the mat and take advantage of his acumen there. Meanwhile, Lennox would be well-served to turn this into a brawl. Pyle is a sound fighter with a lot of experience, but as he showed in his loss against Jake Ellenberger, still folds when his opponents put pressure on him via hard strikes.

This is a tough fight to call, as it’s tempting to call Pyle the more skilled fighter and to assume that his edges in ability and experience will see him through. However, Lennox’s comparatively unorthodox style could easily frustrate Pyle, and if Lennox has been coached to keep the pressure on Pyle standing from the word “go”, he could take this one for sure. I’ll go with the second possibility.

Prediction: Lennox by KO/TKO

James Wilks vs. Peter Sobotta

It’s England vs. Germany in this preliminary bout, as “The Ultimate Fighter 9″ winner James Wilks hopes to give an unfriendly welcome back to the octagon to Sobotta, who has been absent from the UFC since his lone appearance, a UFC 99 loss to Paul Taylor. Wilks will certainly be looking to do the same thing that served him so well on TUF 9: get Sobotta to the mat by any means necessary and work for submissions. Meanwhile, Sobotta has a judo background, but it didn’t show much in his fight against Taylor, where he often gave up positions on the mat to his opponent.

This fight could be an entertaining one, as both fighters are on pretty much equal terms in standup ability: which is to say “not a whole lot”. Still, these fights often end up turning into fan-pleasing slugfests, especially when both fighters are known for not having the best cardio in the world. This should be a good fight all the way up until Wilks gets Sobotta to the mat (maybe for the last of several times) and submits him for the win.

Prediction: Wilks by submission

David Loiseau vs. Mario Miranda

It’s hard not to root for David Loiseau. An all-around good guy who has been involved in the sport for years, he is equally at home fighting in Las Vegas or for a small Canadian promotion. He was also personally touched by the disaster in Haiti, and has always fought with a crowd-pleasing style of aggressive punches and imaginative kicks. However, Mario Miranda is a touch matchup for the UFC veteran. Miranda is also a talented striker, but trades Loiseau’s flair for creativity with a meat and potatoes style of punishing opponents for mistakes and controlling range with hard kicks.

Even if the fight hits the mat, Miranda should be fine there. Neither is going to get invited to Abu Dhabi anytime soon, but Miranda will likely be the man earning the takedown, if there is one. Loiseau’s penchant for spinning kicks in particular invites takedown attempts from all but the most impotent grapplers. I may be pulling for Loiseau to turn back the clock, but I can’t pick him to win.

Prediction: Miranda by decision

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman

We get even more recognizable names here, as two fighters who have fought in the UFC for a few years now collide in this bout. Danzig is trying to avoid being the first “homegrown” TUF winner to get cut (Travis Lutter, winner of season 4, had previous UFC experience). Meanwhile, Wiman, who has had an eventful UFC career that has featured memorable bouts with Spencer Fisher, Thiago Tavares and Sam Stout, is just 1-2 in his last three bouts and needs to get back on track, as well.

Both fighters could reasonably be called “jacks of all trades”, though Wiman probably has the edge in the standup realm, especially because he has more power than his opponent. Wiman also has the edge in wrestling, as Danzig’s takedown defense has betrayed him regularly throughout his UFC tenure. Danzig is a technical fighter, but is having trouble taking advantage of his style in an organization filled with equally-proficient fighters who all have that extra something- whether it be knockout power, takedowns or a size advantage. I think Wiman will be able to enjoy an edge wherever this fight goes.

Prediction: Wiman by decision

Tyson Griffin vs. Evan Dunham

In a fight that is completely worthy of main card status, Tyson Griffin (14-2) will take on Evan Dunham (10-0) in a bout that will fast-track the winner towards a title shot in the relatively near future. These two are both Xtreme Couture fighters who have nonetheless agreed to fight one another, though Griffin has minimized the drama of that particular storyline by saying in recent interviews that the two don’t know each other all that well.

I have a hard time seeing this fight not going the distance. That’s not a knock on either guy, but rather a credit to how good both fighters are at pretty much everything. Both have competent standup, good wrestling and submission defense. Dunham does have a bit better standup because of his excellent jab, which is rare not so much because he throws it well as it is because he knows how to use it. Dunham will control distance with it, frustrate opponents and rack up points on the judges’ scorecards. Meanwhile, Griffin’s wrestling is a shade or two better, and his abilities are separated from others in the division mainly in how he commits himself to takedown attempts, all of which are usually set up well with strikes.

I have to give Griffin the edge here, though this is a razor-thin matchup that may not have a very decisive winner. I think Griffin will get more takedowns, and while the action on the mat will be fast-paced for both men, judges still show a preference towards the fighter who is on top. If Griffin stands in front of Dunham’s jabs too much, though, it could go against him.

Prediction: Griffin by decision

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Tags: Claude Patrick, David Loiseau, Evan Dunham, James Wilks, Jesse Lennox, Mac Danzig, Mario Miranda, Matt Wiman, Mike Pyle, Peter Sobotta, Ricardo Funch, Tyson Griffin, UFC 115