UFC 116 Prelims: Preview and Picks

Tonight is really all about the championship bout between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, but hopefully we’ll get a glimpse of more than just a couple of the preliminary bouts during the show, as well. There are a number of compelling storylines for the undercard, including the return of the man who first beat Kimbo Slice and the debut of a popular brawler from across the pond.

Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola

These two are both undefeated, but don’t mistake this bout for a title eliminator of any sort. Each man is relatively inexperienced (Madsen and Vemola have five and seven pro bouts, respectively), and have very obvious strengths and weaknesses. To many, this would fit the mold of the “classic striker vs. grappler matchup”. To me, it’s just another anticlimactic bout between a wrestler and someone with no takedown defense.

Madsen is going to grapple, and that’s that. He doesn’t like getting involved in exchanges and would rather work to his strengths of putting people on the mat and controlling them, which is smart. Vemola, meanwhile, is a straight-up brawler known for mean-mugging opponents, charging in for the knockout from the opening bell, and even hitting cars with sledgehammers (I suppose as part of his training program…heh).

You have to wonder if Vemola will do what he did in nearly all of his fights in England, which is to charge in blindly, winging wild right hands at the start of the fight. That would be a very bad idea, as Madsen would take him down faster than he could say, “Well, I guess I never did fight a good wrestler before now”…which isn’t saying much, since it’s a rather long sentence.

Anyway, what I’m getting at is that Vemola is better off fighting an uncharacteristically patient fight, but even that will likely result in the same way: with a Madsen win. I think Madsen will eventually finish Vemola, who has never been out of the first round and has a ready-to-gas physique, after wearing him down with takedowns.

Prediction: Madsen by KO/TKO

Forrest Petz vs. Daniel Roberts

Far better than the striker vs. grappler matchup is the “this guy should win if he doesn’t flip out and fight like a crazy person” matchup. That’s what we have here. Petz is a scrappy veteran and talented striker that will have more than enough technique to punish Roberts as long as the fight stays standing. However, Roberts has the tools to put Petz on his back early and often, and from there he just needs to fight a mistake-free fight.

Of course, that’s easier said than done, and though Petz isn’t really a threat from his back, he’s crafty enough to escape and force Roberts to start all over again from the standing position. Also, there’s the x-factor of what happens if the fight goes deep, as Roberts was on his way to what looked like victory against John Howard before he was pounced on and beaten. Still, I think Roberts will be smart here and use his skills to his advantage en route to a victory.

Prediction: Roberts by decision

Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch

Another talented prospect will make his debut in this fight, as Dave Branch brings his undefeated record into the UFC for the first time to face two-fight UFC veteran Gerald Harris. Harris has the edge in experience, physical tools and the more well-rounded skill set, as he has power in his hands, good standup technique and the takedown defense to use them. Meanwhile, Branch is more of a one-trick pony at this point of his career…or at least, at this level, he is. In his previous fights he has shown good enough standup to compete, but Harris is a big step up in that area.

Branch will have to get the fight to the mat, and therein lies the problem. He won’t be able to take Harris down, and will quickly realize that he’s in for a long night because of it. Meanwhile, Harris will confidently chip away at Branch, though he will be able to finish him at some point due to his striking advantage. Branch will have a chance to become a good fighter in the future, but he’s not ready for Harris yet.

Prediction: Harris by KO/TKO

Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic

Both of these two need a win here, as Grove is coming off of two losses in his last three fights, and Reljic lost his last bout in a disappointing effort against CB Dollaway. That loss made it all too clear that Reljic needs to work on his takedown defense, but it isn’t too likely that Grove will expose that particular weakness in the way that Dollaway did. Grove’s best skills are his jiu-jitsu and his rangy striking, which he has worked on in order to take better advantage of his long limbs via knees and kicks as well as straight punches.

The problem is that Grove doesn’t have that great of a chin, and Reljic is a good striker himself. If Grove goes for some takedowns, he could make this fight interesting, and with a possible cut from the organization looming in the event of a loss, he is sure to be motivated for this bout. Still, I’m going to go with Reljic here, simply because I think he’s more talented in the area that the fight will take place the majority of the time- on the feet.

Prediction: Reljic by KO/TKO

Ricardo Romero vs. Seth Petruzelli

Romero, who has fought all of his eleven career fights in Ring of Combat, will make his UFC debut against the returning Seth Petruzelli, who carries a four-fight winning streak with him, including his infamous win over Kimbo Slice in EliteXC. While Romero can’t say that he brought an entire organization crumbling down with a couple of punches, he does have a capable grappling base, thanks to his Division I wrestling experience at Rutgers University.

Romero also has capable boxing, though he is much more orthodox than Petruzelli, who tends to use a more tae kwon do-style approach with flashy kicks and punches from the outside. This may frustrate Romero, but that will only speed Romero’s approach to the fight up and expedite the takedown attempts that will surely put Petruzelli on his back. From that position, Petruzelli may be able to survive, but he has never been a very threatening fighter from there.

Prediction: Romero by decision

Chris Tuchscherer vs. Brendan Schaub

Tuchscherer at this point is either most known as “that guy who trains with Brock Lesnar,” “that guy who took a nasty shot to the berries from Gabriel Gonzaga,” or “that guy who got an undeserved decision win against Tim Hague”. What Tuchscherer does bring into the fight with him is a pretty good Greco game, which he has used fairly well, especially early in fights before his gas tank inevitably fails him.

At this point, if you’ve read a lot of my previews, you’re wondering if I’ll pick the winner based solely on wrestling ability like I sometimes seem to, but the answer here is “NO!” That’s because Schaub is the better athlete and just too strong to be muscled around for long by someone like Tuchscherer. I’m not saying Schaub won’t be planted on the mat once or twice, but surely not enough to earn Tuchscherer another dubious decision win. That’s the only chance Tuchscherer really has, too, since he lacks the power or mat skills to finish Schaub and will be running on empty at some point in the second round, too.

Schaub is improving nicely with help from Greg Jackson, and this fight will be another step to true relevance in what is becoming a very talented heavyweight division. Schaub wins this one by virtue of just plain being better.

Prediction: Schaub by KO/TKO

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Tags: Brendan Schaub, Chris Tuchscherer, Daniel Roberts, Dave Branch, Forrest Petz, Gerald Harris, Goran Reljic, Jon Madsen, Karlos Vemola, Kendall Grove, Ricardo Romero, Seth Petruzelli, UFC, UFC 116