UFC 118 Main Card: Preview and Picks

UFC 118 asks a lot of questions. Can Frankie Edgar defy the odds again? Can Marcus Davis and Demian Maia turn things around? Can James Toney land a single punch against Randy Couture? Read on to find my answers to these pressing questions and more.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

You won’t find a lot of macho types in the UFC, at least not in the respect of having to walk around 24 hours a day mean-mugging people or threatening to throw down with anyone and everyone over the smallest perceived slights. However, you have just that type of personality in Nate Diaz, the younger and less talented of the Diaz brothers. Meanwhile, Davis is a likeable guy who has worked his butt off to go from being a one-note boxer on “The Ultimate Fighter” to being a respectable all-around competitor.

This prediction is going to hurt.

Diaz wasn’t able to distinguish himself as a lightweight, but has fared well so far at welterweight, while Davis was once a fight or two from a title shot before stumbling in his last three fights, in which he has posted a 1-2 record. It would be great to see Davis reverse both trends with a knockout tonight, but sadly, I don’t see that happening.

As silly as Diaz looks when he puts on his tough guy act at the weigh-ins and awkwardly thrusts his skinny arms in his opponent’s faces, you have to give him his due in that he has a surprisingly difficult striking style to get around and a superb guard game. Both will give Davis trouble throughout this fight. Davis has only occasionally shown knockout power in his UFC tenure, and though he is the better technical striker here, he will struggle to get past Diaz’s reach throughout the fight.

Meanwhile, if Davis is enticed into securing a takedown, he will put himself in serious danger of a submission, as he does not have the tools to keep Diaz from locking up something nasty from off of his back. Having Diaz on top of him would be just as bad a situation, as Davis may be crafty on the mat, but he is sorely outclassed in that area for this fight.

Prediction: Diaz by submission

You know what, though? I’m always wrong on a few (and sometimes many more) fights, so I’m going to go against my initial instincts here. Diaz got outstruck by a sloppy Gray Maynard, so why can’t Davis do the same? The real key here is Davis keeping the bout standing, and I’ll bank on him to do so.

Prediction: Davis by decision

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

This fight, which will be for the next lightweight title shot, pits Boston’s own Kenny Florian against capable wrestler Gray Maynard. Maynard has had a run like few others in the UFC, winning seven fights in a row while running his overall record to 9-0. However, his reliance on decision victories and a straight-up ugly standup fight against Nate Diaz cost him the chance to take on BJ Penn, as Frankie Edgar was chosen instead.

That’s probably for the better, as Maynard wouldn’t have the speed to work the kind of fight Edgar did when he beat Penn. Meanwhile, Maynard will need to resist the urge to repeat his behavior with Florian, who is leagues beyond Maynard when it comes to technical striking. Florian would punish Maynard in short order if he chooses to stand and bang, using a mix of kicks to all areas of the body and pinpoint punches and elbows to combat Maynard’s predictable haymaker-based approach.

Will Maynard be wise enough to take this fight to the mat, though? Against Diaz, he didn’t, but Diaz has shown to have a much more aggressive guard game than Florian’s, and Florian has been controlled by good wrestlers in the past, such as Sean Sherk. Still, I will show faith in Florian’s game planning, improved takedown defense and ability to respond to what will likely be at least one or two takedowns by giving him the benefit of the doubt. He’s the better overall fighter, anyway.

Prediction: Florian by KO/TKO

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

It was our loss when an injury to Alan Belcher took him out of his fight with Maia, which would have given us a good look at what Belcher can do against a top-flight opponent. Still, we get a reasonable enough facsimile of that fight here, as Miranda must fight a strategy similar to what Belcher would have had to use in order to get the “W” here.

Miranda, like most fighters in the UFC’s middleweight division, will enjoy a nice advantage when standing with Maia, as Maia’s striking is still very much a work in progress. However, I don’t expect Maia to just stand and trade with Miranda for long, as Miranda will likely unleash some hellish leg kicks that will lend some urgency to Maia’s efforts to take the fight to the mat.

Maia is not one to really shoot in from a distance, and he will have to walk through Miranda’s strikes to close the distance here. Miranda is a good striker from close range, too, so Maia will have to be careful, yet aggressive in his pursuit of the takedown. If he does get it, though, it’s hard not to expect Maia to make short work of Miranda from there. There are few middleweights in the sport that can hang with Maia’s submission game, especially when he’s on top, and Miranda isn’t one of them.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

You know, I talked myself into giving Toney a shot here. Hey, Couture favors the clinch and dirty boxing, right? His last several fights have featured the UFC Hall of Famer simply leaning on opponents for great lengths of time to wear them down and earn favor with the judges, after all. However, Toney would much rather be clinching against the cage than defending double-leg takedowns, since he can land a punch here and there in the clinch.

Then, I saw Toney weigh in. Not only does he look fat, but he also seems to have trouble getting around. Couture may be an old guy, but Toney LOOKS like an old guy, and moves like one, too. This fight is his to lose. I think we see Couture rely more on shooting for takedowns than his usual clinch strategy, and once the fight hits the floor, it’s just up to Couture as far as how fast (and with what technique) he wants to finish Toney. What a silly fight.

Prediction: Couture by KO/TKO

Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn

Edgar is champion of the division now after being the first person since 2002 to beat Penn in his natural weight division (and the only person besides Jens Pulver ever to do so). He now faces the unenviable task of having to defeat Penn twice in a row to solidify his status as champion, since many fans and pundits alike were not so satisfied with the way Edgar won the first time.

Depending on what side of the fence you fall on, Edgar either pulled off a huge upset in their last bout or was the beneficiary of some friendly judging (Doug Crosby, I’m looking at you). If you favor power punches over sheer volume of strikes, you likely feel the same way. Regardless, though, the fight was close enough that neither man could truly cry foul, and to his credit, Penn did not complain about the outcome after the fight.

What’s clear is that if Penn does not want to have to stand next to a referee again wondering which way the chips will fall, he needs to change his approach to the fight. There’s always a chance that Penn could counter-punch his way to a KO or TKO, but that did not happen in 25 minutes of fighting the first time, so it’s not something to count on, by any means. I would hope to see a more aggressive Penn this time in terms of closing the distance and clinching up with Edgar.

In the clinch, Penn would be able to muscle Edgar around a bit (Edgar should really be at featherweight, not lightweight) and work with strong punches and dirty boxing. The goal, though, should be to get the fight to the mat, where Penn will be at a significant advantage. Perhaps Edgar will even help Penn out with that part of the fight by taking the Hawaiian down.

This time, I think that Penn will eventually work toward finding a hole in Edgar’s game, which most likely will take form on the mat. Penn knows that to reassume the throne, he needs to fight differently than last time, and I expect him to do so. Edgar is a fine fighter and a great talent, but Penn is on another level.

Prediction: Penn by submission

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Tags: BJ Penn, Demian Maia, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, James Toney, Kenny Florian, lock your doors it's the Diaz brothers!, Marcus Davis, Mario Miranda, Nate Diaz, Randy Couture, UFC, UFC 118