UFC 118 Prelims: Preview and Picks
While the prelims may not be as stacked as usual, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any quality bouts to look out for tonight. Especially considering that we will see at least a couple of preliminary fights on Spike TV, which is always a welcome bit of free entertainment. Prepare to look smart and fool your friends into thinking you’ve heard of Amilcar Alves by checking out my preview and picks.
Dan Miller vs. John Salter
How do you lose three fights in a row in the UFC and not get cut? Besides being named “Stephan Bonnar”, I mean? Well, if your three losses are to the likes of Chael Sonnen, Demian Maia and Michael Bisping, you may get the benefit of the doubt, as Miller has. Still, this is unquestionably a must-win fight for what was once a common pick to be one of the better prospects in the middleweight division.
Across from him is Salter, a capable wrestler with a 5-1 MMA record (1-1 in the UFC) and wins over Jason MacDonald and James Hammortree so far in his young MMA career. Salter doesn’t bring a lot of sizzle with the steak, but he will work hard for takedowns and not afford opponents the opportunity to collect themselves. That shouldn’t be a problem for a veteran like Miller, but then again, Miller has shown that he has had trouble over his losing streak with adapting his strategies to his opponents’ abilities.
I’m not going to argue that Miller can win this fight from off his back, as Salter is savvy enough to keep that from happening, all while constantly putting Miller in trouble. However, I think Miller will find himself on top of Salter during the fight, too, and he will take much more advantage of the position than Salter will. I think stand up exchanges slightly favor Miller, as well. I can see Miller winning by submission after passing Salter’s guard, but I’ll go with a decision instead.
Prediction: Miller by decision
Greg Soto vs. Nick Osipczak
Coming straight out of Nottingham, a crazy mother named Nick Osipczak looks to rob the rich of some performance bonuses by dominating relative UFC newbie Greg Soto. Osipczak is a well-rounded fighter who had cruised to two straight UFC wins (he’s 5-1 overall, 2-1 in the UFC), including an impressive TKO win over Matt Riddle, before losing a split decision to Rick Story at UFC 112. His opponent, Soto, carries a 7-1 record and lost in his lone UFC bout to Riddle by disqualification. Don’t get it twisted, though- Riddle was beating Soto handily before the third round illegal upkick got Soto booted.
When looking at a fight like this, I’m always tempted to think in terms of who has the most weapons. That is most certainly Osipczak, who is a competent and confident striker as well as the possessor of a solid ground game and underrated wrestling. Soto is more of a one-trick pony that depends on his top game to garner him wins. I don’t think that will serve him well here, and Osipczak will likely win with relative ease.
Prediction: Osipczak by submission
Mike Pierce vs. Amilcar Alves
Pierce is an absolutely suffocating grappler who finds himself on the prelims (and off Spike TV, no less) probably more so because all four of his UFC fights have gone to decision, rather than based upon any lack of potential on his part. His lone UFC loss was to Jon Fitch, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. There is quite a chasm between the ability levels of the fighters he’s beaten (Paul Bradley, Brock Larson and Julio Paulino) in the UFC and the one he’s lost to (Fitch), however. You can guess which side of the spectrum Alves is closer to.
That may be a little harsh, as Alves is a highly-regarded Brazilian prospect with an 11-1 record. The problem facing Alves is not so much a lack of ability as much as it is a bad style matchup. One would think that a grappler from Nova Uniao would be right at home against a wrestler who will happily take the fight to the mat like Pierce, but I have doubts that Alves will be able to sustain any kind of threatening attack against a veteran with the kind of top control Pierce has.
The standup portion of this fight is an afterthought, though anything could happen in that realm between these two. Neither one is going to set the world on fire with his standup, though, and you can expect this one to play out on the mat. Pierce takes this one via decision.
Prediction: Pierce by decision
Andre Winner vs. Nik Lentz
“The Ultimate Fighter 9” runner-up Winner will take on the owner of one of the better nicknames in MMA, Nik “The Carnie” Lentz. Winner has done well since losing the final bout of the show’s tournament, knocking out Roli Delgado and beating Rafaello Oliveira by decision. Now he faces Lentz, who brings a straight-forward, takedown-oriented game into the cage with him.
The question here is whether Winner will be able to stay off his back enough to prevent a loss by decision. I think the mat will present mostly a stalemate, though Lentz will rack up points if he can get consistent takedowns and a little bit of offense while on the mat. However, Lentz does not set up his take downs particularly well, and Winner possesses a huge advantage when the two are standing up.
There is a snowball effect in a “striker vs. grappler matchup” (saying that phrase makes me throw up in my mouth a little, but whatever) where if a striker is tooling the grappler while standing, the grappler shows more desperation in getting the fight to the mat, and thus starts shooting more sloppily for takedowns. I can see that happening here, though I’m not sure Winner will knock Lentz out.
Prediction: Winner by decision
Joe Lauzon vs. Gabe Ruediger
Lauzon is likely still best known for his stunning (at the time) knockout of Jens Pulver way back in 2006. Meanwhile, Ruediger is best known for failing to make weight and pretty much acting like a baby on “The Ultimate Fighter”. Edge: Lauzon.
Both fighters have among the worst nicknames in the sport. Lauzon’s is the abysmal “J-Lau”, which might not be so bad if his name wasn’t pronounced “Low-zon”. Meanwhile, Ruediger’s is “Godzilla”. Edge: Ruediger.
Ruediger, like Lauzon, depends on his ground game to garner submission victories. Lauzon, however, has a ground game that can actually get him wins over good competition. Edge: Lauzon.
Neither are great strikers, but Lauzon has more reach, more power, and an altogether better standup game than his
Tags: Andre Winner, Dan Miller, Joe Lauzon, Nick Osipczak, UFC, UFC 118
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