UFC 119 Preview and Picks

UFC 119 is drawing near, and although many are not impressed with the main event, I personally look at the card and see nothing but quality fights. All-around, I think this card stands up with any other UFC card this year. Let’s get on with the preview and picks, as the pay-per-view will be on in just a couple of hours.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard

Any other event, and I would guarantee that this would be “fight of the night”. However, when you have four-time FOTN winner Chris Lytle on the same card, it’s hard to do so.

Still, this should be a real war, which I realize is a cliché and all, but still holds true. Guillard is always more than happy to face an opponent who wants to keep the bout standing, and Stephens has shown jaw-rocking power in his UFC career thus far.

Further helping to keep the fight standing will be Guillard’s ever-improving takedown defense, which should be enough to fend off anything but the best possible efforts Stephens can bring. Looking at this as a stand-up fight, but have outstanding power, though I love the variety of strikes and combinations better coming from Guillard. Also, when you have a close fight, as we certainly do here, it never hurts to favor experience, as well as whichever guy is coached by Greg Jackson.

Prediction: Guillard by KO/TKO

Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

Wait a minute, who’s this “Sherk” guy? Oh, that’s right, he was last seen a year and three months ago losing to Frankie Edgar. Since then, he has been forced to pull out of every fight he’s signed on for due to injuries, and now he has to come back and face possibly the hottest fighter in the division outside of Edgar himself.

Dunham has been on an absolute tear, submitting Efrain Escudero and beating fellow Xtreme Couture fighter Tyson Griffin by decision this year already. So, in a case like this, it is hard not to err on the side of caution, as there is just too much that has to happen for Sherk to win.

First of all, he has to be fully healthy. Second, he has to be sharp and quick after a 15-month layoff and at 37 years old. Third, he has to be willing to “dance with who brought him” and go back to his wrestling, rather than boxing for round after round like he did against Edgar and BJ Penn. That’s a lot to expect to go right.

If he does stand with Dunham, I favor the younger fighter. He uses his range well with jabs and straight punches, and Sherk always has a reach disadvantage. Sherk’s boxing is good, but will he get close enough to use it effectively? And even if he does try to take down Dunham, Dunham is a capable wrestler who is hard to hold down. I’ll give a slight edge to Dunham here, though Sherk could certainly prove me wrong.

Prediction: Dunham by decision

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra

This is one of those rematches that promises to look nothing at all like the original fight. When these two first fought, it was an exercise in caution as neither fighter wanted to make a big mistake and Serra won a razor-thin decision. To hear Chris Lytle tell it, each man fought not to lose, rather than to actually put the other away.

That fight actually changed Lytle’s outlook on fighting, as he wisely has abandoned all hope of winning via decision. It’s a good choice, since he has lost 15 of his career 20 fights that have gone to the judges. It’s also a good decision because Lytle is one of the hardest fighters to knock out or submit in the entire sport. In 51 career fights, he’s never been knocked out, submitted or had a referee stop one of his fights. His two TKO losses were due to cuts/doctor stoppages.

Serra is similarly tough, as only two of his losses have come by being finished: once by Shonie Carter’s infamous spinning backfist way back at UFC 31, and another time in his rematch with Georges St. Pierre. Suffice to say that this fight has a good shot of going to the judges.

It makes a lot of sense to pick Serra here. If the fight hits the mat, he is more than able to stay out of trouble, and can attack Lytle from many positions, too. He has power, as does Lytle, but has a tighter, more practical approach to striking that may help him get the better of exchanges. Having said that, I’m going to do the sensible thing and go with Lytle. What the hell…why not take it all the way and predict a finish?

Prediction: Lytle by KO/TKO

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

I’m actually really excited for this fight. I have thought for a while now that Bader is a better light heavyweight prospect than Jon Jones, and that he’s actually a better fighter right now as well. This fight, for me anyway, could put Bader in the top ten of the weight class.

Nogueira is a legitimate top ten light heavyweight who did not look good at all in his last fight against Jason Brilz. He simply looked a bit lethargic for some reason, although he looked great in his previous UFC appearance over Luis Cane. Sometimes he just appears to be unfocused, which could lead to him giving up a round or two against a hard-working fighter like Bader.

Bader will decide where the fight takes place, and though Nogueira has said he has the advantage standing up, I prefer Bader’s power over Nogueira’s advantage in technique and variety of strikes. I think Bader will be smart enough to make any necessary in-fight adjustments. I also see Bader taking the fight down if he gets in trouble or thinks he needs a little help to win a round, and though Nogueira is dangerous off of his back, I think that Bader can stay out of trouble.

Prediction: Bader by decision

Frank Mir vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic

Yes, UFC fans…that thing above after “Cro Cop” is Mirko’s last name. I’m not sure when the UFC decided to forego last names in favor of nicknames when it comes to certain fighters, by the way.

Anyway, this fight may seem an easy one to predict, but are there two heavyweights in the UFC today that have a wider range of possible performance levels than these two? At times, Mir has looked like the best heavyweight in the world- nearly as large as Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, but faster, with cleaner stand-up technique and a superb ground game. Then, there were performances where Mir looked all too willing to accept punishment and simply didn’t look like himself…like, say, his fights against Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. As far as Cro Cop goes, well, we all know how unpredictable he is.

I have no doubts that Mir believes he can stand and strike with Cro Cop. Mir has put a lot of efforts into his stand-up over the last few years, and he believes in his technique. He knows what Cro Cop’s weapons are, and he has devised plans to allow him to strike with Cro Cop without putting himself in jeopardy. He thinks he can outmaneuver Cro Cop to land his own strikes without eating a big left hand or a huge kick from the Croatian star, and it’s hard to disagree with him.

The variety of Cro Cop’s strikes is not so good anymore, as he tends to throw his strikes one or two at a time, and doesn’t set up his high kicks well enough to land them with regularity. However, Mir’s cockiness has gotten him into trouble before, such as when he didn’t seem worried about the shots Carwin was landing against the cage until it was too late to do anything about it. He says he wants to come right at Cro Cop, and we’ll see whether or not Cro Cop will react aggressively, or be chased out of the pocket.

The ground game is a different matter, and Cro Cop’s takedown defense should hold up pretty well against Mir. Of course, Mir won’t simply shoot without setting it up, and Cro Cop may even initiate the grappling if he needs to. Cro Cop’s submission defense is better than people think. It’s not as if Josh Barnett submitted him, right? Still, he doesn’t want to spend too much time on the mat, and he definitely doesn’t want to be underneath Mir.

Yet another x-factor would be Mir’s conditioning. If it gets to the third round, I have to favor Cro Cop, unless he’s already taken a lot of damage already. Then you have Cro Cop’s seeming lack of confidence that has shown in his pre-fight comments, and his possible eye injury that he has decided to fight through. With all this to consider, how do you people expect me to make an accurate prediction? Ah, screw it. I’ll take a Mir submission, but not until he’s already softened up Cro Cop.

Prediction: Mir by submission

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Tags: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Chris Lytle, Evan Dunham, Frank Mir, Jeremy Stephens, Matt Serra, Melvin Guillard, Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic, Ryan Bader, Sean Sherk, UFC, UFC 119