UFC 120 Preview and Picks

UFC 120 is in London, so some of you will be watching it live in just a couple of hours. Then again, those of us who are in the U.S. will be watching on tape delay later tonight. If you’re in that boat and you’re like me, you’ll be avoiding spoilers at all costs during the day…but before you swear off the internet for several hours, make sure to check out my preview and picks.

James Wilks vs. Claude Patrick

Wilks is likely at least a little unsettled by the recent dismissal of fellow TUF winner Efrain Escudero, which represents the first time a homegrown TUF winner has been cut. What’s worse, Escudero was cut after losing just two out of three fights, which represents a much shorter leash than one would expect. Wilks enters this fight 1-1 in his last two, with a UFC 105 loss to Matt Brown via TKO followed by a UFC 115 win over Peter Sobotta by unanimous decision. A loss to Patrick here puts him in pretty hot water.

Meanwhile, Patrick has won an incredible 6 out of his last 8 fights by guillotine choke. Off the top of my head, I can’t think of another fighter with such a prolific string of guillotine choke wins in major MMA events. Patrick is 12-1 as a pro and unlike Wilks, is still just starting his UFC career, having already won his first fight in the promotion.

This is definitely a grappling fight in the making, but these two have vastly different styles. Wilks is much more adventurous, as he will look for any and all possible submissions while quickly moving from one opening to another to exploit his opponent’s mistakes. Meanwhile, Patrick sticks to more of a basic repertoire, but when he cinches something up, he tends to get it. I saw him fight Ray Steinbess way back in 2006 at an IFL event, and he was just as disciplined and effective of a grappler back then as he is today.

The thing is, Patrick is definitely the better wrestler, which means Wilks will be hard-pressed to get an advantageous top position. Wilks is quite happy to work from his back, but factor in Patrick’s strength and ability to cinch up a choke at just about any time, and Wilks may not get the opportunities that he is hoping for. I could see Patrick winning by decision after both fighters find themselves having a hard time finishing the other, but I’ll go out on a limb and say Patrick catches him, instead.

Prediction: Patrick by submission

Cheick Kongo vs. Travis Browne

A gatekeeper if there ever was one, Kongo has struggled recently due to back-to-back matchups against Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, before getting back on track by pasting Paul Buentello in March. Meanwhile, Browne will be making his second UFC appearance after beating James McSweeney at the TUF 11 Finale in June. He’s a perfect 10-0 with 8 wins by KO/TKO, though he hasn’t fought anyone close to Kongo’s level yet.

Despite their vast differences in experience, both guys like to do the same basic thing: strike. However, while Browne is a less-refined striker standing up, Kongo has additional speed and technique that gives him an edge in the stand-up. Of course, this is a heavyweight fight, and either man can end it in short order by landing a clean shot.

That brings us to Kongo’s other decisive advantage: ground-and-pound. Kongo has underrated takedowns and some of the best ground-and-pound in the division. Sure, he won’t be taking down any of the division’s best wrestlers, but against opposition like Browne, he’s more than happy to take the fight to the mat. It’s a smart tactic when receiving just one good shot can spell the end of your night, and I expect Kongo to use his takedowns liberally in this fight to keep Browne off-balance, wear him down and possibly even finish him.

Prediction: Kongo by KO/TKO

John Hathaway vs. Mike Pyle

I was extremely impressed with Hathaway when he absolutely destroyed Diego Sanchez at UFC 114. He may be the first English fighter in the UFC to truly put it all together- wrestling included. He faces Pyle, who makes no secret of his strength in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Pyle, who has been victorious by submission in 17 of his 19 career wins, is an Xtreme Couture fighter who is extremely dangerous on the mat.

If Hathaway takes the fight to the ground, he goes right into Pyle’s strongest area. But will he do that? I think Hathaway has the better striking, as Pyle is all too happy to eat punches rather than get out of the way, which can be the difference in a competitive three-round fight. Even if Hathaway does take the fight to the mat, I think he is active and savvy enough to stay out of serious trouble.

Pyle will have a tough night ahead of him if he is determined to take Hathaway down. Hathaway has shown great takedown defense against very good wrestlers in his UFC career thus far, and I can’t imagine Pyle putting him on his back. Pyle is a good fighter, but I just see Hathaway having the edge everywhere, barring a surprising submission finish for Pyle.

Prediction: Hathaway by decision

Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit

In my humble opinion, this is the toughest fight to call on the card. Hardy has been on an unbelievable run since entering the UFC, and even gained the respect of many during his gutsy effort against a far superior Georges St. Pierre. Meanwhile, Condit has lingered around the top ten or twenty in the division since defeating Renato Verissimo and Frank Trigg in Rumble on the Rock back in 2006.

Hardy is known for having powerful punches, but I’ve long wondered whether that reputation is wholly deserved. Hardy can knock dudes out on occasion, but his punches are not nearly as dangerous as the UFC hype machine would have had us believe leading up to his fight with GSP. I thought GSP was the better striker back then, actually, and still believe that now. St. Pierre just took the fight to the mat because that’s where Hardy was weakest- not because Hardy was a better striker than he was.

Condit is a fairly versatile fighter who is perfectly happy as long as the fight becomes a fight. His talents lie in the margins of a fight: landing shots in the clinch, transitioning from the stand-up to the mat and vice versa, and taking part in aggressive exchanges. Condit is a “more than the sum of his parts” sort of fighter who doesn’t have any areas where he really excels compared to his competition, but usually ends up having his hand raised, anyway.

I don’t think his hand will be raised tonight, though. Hardy is just plain better everywhere, and though he wasn’t able to show it against St. Pierre, I think his overall game improved a lot when he trained for that fight. More than anything, I think the experience made him a better fighter with more efficient training methods and a new perspective on what it takes to succeed at the highest level.

These are important things to have when you end up in a fight with someone like Condit. I expect Hardy to outsmart his opponent and score often while standing or in the clinch. I don’t know that this fight will hit the mat, but I wouldn’t expect it to conclude there, anyway. I think Hardy will take a comfortable decision win over Condit.

Prediction: Hardy by decision

Michael Bisping vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Akiyama (or “Sexyama”, as he is known on many MMA forums) has not gotten off to a great start to his UFC career. He has gassed in both of his fights thus far, first in a sloppy slugfest against Alan Belcher that he won by split decision, and then in a losing effort against Chris Leben that saw him tap to a triangle choke, of all things.

Now, Bisping may not have set the world on fire lately, but he also has no obvious areas of weakness. His cardio is never really a problem, which is good because he doesn’t tend to finish his opponents early. Furthermore, his striking has always been fundamentally sound and his takedown defense is underrated. When he is taken down, he is able to stand up quickly most of the time, too.

Akiyama is a good enough counter-puncher that is easy to draw into a war. However, I don’t think Bisping turns this into one, as he will be looking to get off quickly and get out of range throughout the fight. There’s a chance that Akiyama will look to close the distance and clinch in order to look for a throw or takedown. However, Bisping’s striking in the clinch is very solid, too, and there’s a good chance that Akiyama doesn’t hold Bisping down for long if he does put him on his back. This is especially true since Akiyama will use the clinch for takedowns, which means Bisping can use the cage to help him get back to his feet.

I really want to pick Akiyama here, but I just can’t. This fight is likely to go to a decision, and Akiyama is almost guaranteed to give away the third round due to his poor cardio. That means he has to win the first two rounds, and given Bisping’s skill set and the poor string of judging in MMA lately, that’s too much to depend on. I’ll reluctantly go with Bisping.

Prediction: Bisping by decision

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Tags: Carlos Condit, Cheick Kongo, Claude Patrick, Dan Hardy, James Wilks, John Hathaway, Michael Bisping, Mike Pyle, Travis Browne, UFC, UFC 120, Yoshihiro Akiyama