UFC 121 Prelims: Preview and Picks

While any UFC headlined by Brock Lesnar ends up with plenty of fights being overshadowed by the heavyweight champ, UFC 121 has several fights to look forward to, not just on the main card, but also on the prelims. Let’s check out the preliminary fights as I make my picks for tonight’s first bouts.

Gilbert Yvel vs. Jon Madsen

I’m still struggling to understand why Yvel is in the UFC. The guy has committed offenses during his career that are far worse than what Paul Daley or any other former UFC fighter has done, and he’s lost two in a row since coming to the organization, to boot. Even Efrain Escudero couldn’t get that much leeway.

Still, here he is, trying to slug his way to a career resurgence against the hard-nosed wrestler Jon Madsen. This is one of those fights where each fighter’s intentions are ridiculously transparent. Yvel will be headhunting and trying to stay off his back, while Madsen will be trying to take Yvel down and avoid being concussed in the process.

The problem with picking this fight is that I’m not too enthused about picking either fighter. Yvel is not the striker he once was, though he is very good at surviving. He lasted three full rounds underneath Josh Barnett, and Ben Rothwell wasn’t able to finish him in his last fight, either. Meanwhile, Madsen has never been overly impressive, as he’s not particularly athletic, quick or skilled, though he has shown the ability to control his way to decisions against lesser opponents. I have no idea why the UFC is giving Madsen, of all people, the slow build that they refuse to give to so many legitimate prospects, but Madsen gets my pick to grind out an uninspiring victory here.

Prediction: Madsen by decision

Dongi Yang vs. Chris Camozzi

Yang is the rare South Korean prospect that is being brought to the UFC for a test run after compiling a 9-0 record, with 8 wins by TKO. He faces Camozzi, who made his official UFC debut by defeating the tough James Hammortree by unanimous decision at the Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale.

Fight Finder logic would dictate that Yang will be a threat to knock out Camozzi, but that’s why we must watch the fights, my friends. From what I’ve seen of Yang, he doesn’t pack an extraordinary amount of power, and instead gets his TKO victories via referee stoppages against overwhelmed opponents. Furthermore, he is not extremely impressive, as he is somewhat sloppy and uses bullying and control to gain the edge on his usually-outmatched opponents. His opponents haven’t exactly been of the highest caliber, either.

Camozzi has faced better competition, won’t be fighting in the U.S. (or the UFC) for the first time, and has less question marks, in my opinion. Camozzi isn’t penciled in as a future star by any means, but is a capable fighter who has done well against tough opposition. I think his overall superior skills and composure will help him to secure the win.

Prediction: Camozzi by submission

Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor

Sadly, this fight may be the last for one of these two in the UFC for some time. Stout comes in having lost three of his last five fights (though in fairness to Stout, two were by split decision), while Taylor has astonishingly lost four of six, yet continues to be booked for UFC cards while other fighters with far less damning stretches have been cut from the roster.

This has the makings of an outstanding fight, no matter the records of the two fighters. Both of these men prefer to stand and trade strikes, and yet they bring very different styles to the table. With Stout as the technical striker who mixes up combinations beautifully and uses all of his available weapons, while Taylor is an unpredictable brawler who will push the pace throughout the bout, this has the makings of a fight of the night candidate.

Having said that, I tend to favor the more technically proficient striker in a matchup such as this one, particularly when neither man has a whole lot of power. I think Stout will take a competitive bout by decision.

Prediction: Stout by decision

Daniel Roberts vs. Michael Guymon

Casual fans may know Daniel Roberts as “that guy who got KTFO by John Howard on the first UFC on Versus card”, and Michael Guymon as “that guy with the creepy smile that has his own Tapout shirt”. Roberts suffered his only career loss against Howard, but hasn’t been able to show the submission game that helped get him into the UFC so far in his two UFC bouts. Meanwhile, Guymon’s career in the UFC has also been a mixed back through two bouts, though he did just defeat Yoshiyuki Yoshida by decision at UFC 113.

This is a tough fight to pick. Neither are standout wrestlers, and Roberts’ submissions often seem to come off of big mistakes by his opponents, which I don’t expect Guymon to make. Guymon hasn’t set the world on fire yet, but he’s a well-rounded, more polished fighter that I expect to take this one, I guess.

Prediction: Guymon by decision

Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor

As we’ve already seen while looking at this card, any set of UFC preliminary bouts has plenty of fighters with their backs against the wall, and this fight is no exception. Both of these gentlemen have lost their last two fights, and that kind of streak can spell disaster, or at least spell “prelims for life”. Cote is no doubt hoping to get his career back on track after being a middleweight title contender a couple of years ago, while Lawlor is trying to go from being “the funny weigh-ins guy” to “the funny weigh-ins guy who is a good fighter”.

Lawlor has channeled everyone from the “Just Bleed” guy to Dan Severn in his memorable weigh-in appearances, but he’ll need to have the mentality of the latter rather than the former to win this one. Cote would no doubt love to focus on striking, which is unquestionably what he does best, but Lawlor needs to keep him off balance with the threat of takedowns from the opening minute to avoid letting the Canadian fighter do so.

Cote certainly wins a striking battle, but I’m banking on Lawlor using his all-around game and wrestling to clinch, takedown and punch his weigh to a competitive win.

Prediction: Lawlor by decision

Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen

McGee won the eleventh season of “The Ultimate Fighter”, and looks to impress in his first UFC non-TUF matchup. He’ll face Jensen, who has built his career off of surviving through any rough patches in order to submit opponents when the opportunity arises.

I don’t expect that McGee will give Jensen many opportunities, though. He’s a better wrestler than Jensen and will probably not look to take the fight to the mat until he has either gotten into trouble or wants to change it up a bit. I think he’ll eventually outlast and overwhelm Jensen with strikes later on for the referee stoppage.

Prediction: McGee by KO/TKO

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Tags: Court McGee, Gilbert Yvel, Patrick Cote, Ryan Jensen, Tom Lawlor, UFC, UFC 121