UFC 122 Preview and Picks

It’s hard to complain about a week with two free MMA events that feature high-profile, quality fights. This afternoon, UFC 122 will be going down in Germany and airing on tape delay in many other areas, including the U.S. for free on Spike TV. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card, including my (hopefully accurate) predictions.

Goran Reljic vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

This should be a great fight between two of the more underrated fighters in the light heavyweight division. Reljic returns to 205 lbs. after an unfortunate run at middleweight where he dropped decisions to CB Dollaway and Kendall Grove. He is a slick striker with dangerous head kicks and good speed for a light heavyweight.

Meanwhile, Soszynski has lost two out of three (to Stephan Bonnar and Brandon Vera) but is always a threat to opponents with his great conditioning, well-rounded style and versatility. He doesn’t have great knockout power, but is often willing to trade on the feet en route to workmanlike wins. He’s also underrated as a game planner, which could be important here.

You can never give a finesse striker too much room to operate, and that is the case here. Soszynski can’t afford to simply bide his time and allow Reljic to dictate the pace of the fight while lining up combinations and head kicks. The thing is, he probably won’t let him do so, anyway. Once the fight gets going full steam, I expect Soszynski to be up in Reljic’s face, pressuring him, clinching him, taking him down, etc.

Of course, Reljic has several submissions under his belt, but not against competition on the level of Soszynski. I’m tempted to pick Reljic because I think he has more upside and is a better overall talent, but I think Soszynski will fight smart and get out of Germany with a decision win.

Prediction: Soszynski by decision

Amir Sadollah vs. Peter Sobotta

Amir has had a bit of a tough go of things since winning “The Ultimate Fighter”. He has had a long injury layoff, had a fight stopped early against Johny Hendricks, and most recently was controlled en route to a decision loss against Dong Hyun Kim. Today he’ll fight in the fifth time in 15 months against Sobotta, a good striker with dangerous kicks who has dropped consecutive decisions against Paul Taylor and James Wilks.

Sadollah is a technical striker who is definitely capable of being taken down, muscled around or controlled by bigger fighters, but that shouldn’t be a factor here. In fact, Sobotta will play right into his hands (and vice versa), as both are likely to get the technical striking exchanges that they are hoping for. The question is who will get the best of them.

I like Sadollah here because he is a cerebral fighter who will mix up his attacks and quickly learn to deal with whatever Sobotta is bringing. The added dimensions of a good training camp and improved takedowns will pay dividends as Sadollah can use late takedowns to steal rounds, and he won’t fade late in the fight. Sadollah wins a competitive fight.

Prediction: Sadollah by decision

Dennis Siver vs. Andre Winner

Siver is a very dangerous striker who survived a rough early stretch in the UFC (1-3 in his first four fights) to rattle off wins in four of his last five, including a decision win against Spencer Fisher, which is an impressive accomplishment by any measurement. He’ll face Winner, who won two in a row after losing “The Ultimate Fighter 9″ finale against Ross Pearson, and then recently lost to Nik Lentz by decision.

There are a few things working in Siver’s favor here. He’s the harder striker by far, he’s stronger, and he’s more likely to control the fight when the two close the distance. The question is whether he will be able to make it more of a brawl, rather than letting Winner control the proceedings with technical striking from afar. However, considering all of the advantages Siver has here, I just can’t see picking against him.

Prediction: Siver by KO/TKO

Jorge Rivera vs. Alessio Sakara

Yet another entertaining bout on this card pits two veteran UFC fighters against one another in Rivera and Sakara. Rivera is one of the more inspirational stories in the sport, having overcome a ton of adversity, including the death of his teenaged daughter and your expected number of career setbacks in such a tough business, and it’s hard not to root for him. His career resurgence has been fun to watch, as he’s rattled off wins in four of his last five fights, including a knockout win over Kendall Grove and a TKO victory over Nate Quarry.

Meanwhile, Sakara survived some adversity of his own, losing four of six fights at some point, yet somehow retaining his status as a UFC fighter (somewhere, Efrain Escudero is shaking his head). Like Rivera, he has rebounded to win his last three fights.

There’s no question about it: this should be a very fun fight. These two will likely plant their feet and duke it out, and they both have the technical ability to make it a good fight rather than a sloppy slugfest. Sakara does have the better hands, though Rivera has the intangibles (corny as it may sound) that come from just having, well, huge balls. He’ll go to war until he’s either knocked unconscious or the fight’s over, and he frequently pulls off feats that people didn’t think he could perform.

It’s hard not to hope that he’ll do the same here, but I see Sakara as the better striker and even a little better on the mat, too. Both have been knocked out multiple times, and Rivera could certainly catch Sakara on the chin and put him to sleep, but I’m going to have to reluctantly go the other direction here.

Prediction: Sakara by KO/TKO

Nate Marquardt vs. Yushin Okami

Both of these guys have had the recent tendency to drop fights in the most inopportune times, costing them title shots. However, Marquardt has at least gotten one chance to face middleweight champ Anderson Silva, while Okami has not had that opportunity in the UFC, despite rattling off win streaks of four and then three fights in a row.

The question with Okami simply has to do with whether he actually makes good use of his talents. Sometimes he is just overly cautious, which doesn’t work so well when you’re a grappler who is looking to plant his opponent on his back and take the fight to him. When he has faced elite fighters (like Rich Franklin and Chael Sonnen), this has come back to haunt him, as he tends to drop decisions to more dynamic, aggressive opponents.

If he is truly dedicated to taking the fight to Marquardt and fighting a more Sonnen-esque type of fight, he could have success. However, I don’t think he’ll be able to do so for fifteen minutes. Old habits die hard, especially in terms of a fighter’s core mentality. Okami is just more passive as a fighter, and that’s that.

Plus, Marquardt has the far better overall skill set and is a better athlete, to boot. Okami may show up as the stronger fighter, but I think Marquardt can neutralize that strength with technique. I also think he’ll defend takedowns better than he did against Sonnen, and Okami’s takedowns aren’t on the same level as Sonnen’s, anyway. Marquardt takes this one to set up a possible rematch with Anderson Silva.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

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Tags: Alessio Sakara, Amir Sadollah, Andre Winner, Dennis Siver, Goran Reljic, Jorge Rivera, Krzysztof Soszynski, Nate Marquardt, Peter Sobotta, UFC, UFC 122, Yushin Okami