UFC 123 Preview and Picks: The Main Card

Tonight’s UFC event will present a fight that apparently could have (and maybe should have) happened quite some time ago: Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida. We’ll also get a matchup between surefire UFC Hall of Famers Matt Hughes and BJ Penn, for good measure. Here’s my rundown of those bouts as well as tonight’s other main card fights.

George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon

Two fighters who all UFC fans should instantly recognize face off in this bout, as Sotiropoulos, who is 6-0 in the UFC, takes on the owner of one of the most unfortunate nicknames in the sport (J-Lau, which is of course, pronounced like “J-Lo”), Joe Lauzon.

This fight could provide fans of high-level jiu-jitsu with some memorable moments, as both men are more than capable of tying up opponents in knots on the mat. In the standup, Lauzon is definitely a better striker (Mike Goldberg might even say he has a “definitive advantage”), but I don’t know how much that will matter, since Sotiropoulos is smart enough to know that he needs to keep the pressure on and close the distance regularly.

This will be one of several very closely-contested fights on this card, which means the judges had better be paying attention. In this one, Sotiropoulos will spend more time in dominant positions thanks to his size and takedown advantage, and he’ll win a tight decision as a result.

Prediction: Sotiropoulos by decision

Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch

These two both come into their bout with all kinds of momentum, and though both may be a little early into their careers to be positioning themselves for a title opportunity, one will definitely be a couple steps ahead of the other in that regard after tonight.

On paper, they would seem to have similar game plans and styles. However, not every former Division I wrestler is cut from the same cloth, and these are two very different animals. Boetsch enjoys a good brawl, while Davis is the rare prospect who not only understands that he must take baby steps on the way to a championship run, but also sticks determinedly to his game plan.

Aside from having the best lats in MMA (seriously, they’re freakish looking), Davis is somehow the least appreciated prospect in the light heavyweight division. Jon Jones, and to a lesser extent, Ryan Bader get all the press, even though Davis has a great mentality and an even better pedigree. He’s slowly rounding out his game, but he still sticks to what got him where he is- his wrestling- which is exactly what he should be doing.

That will be the difference here, as Davis will not only have an edge in athleticism, but also in overall skills and game plan. Davis will wear down Boetsch before a late referee stoppage.

Prediction: Davis by KO/TKO

Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Jose Falcao Goncalves

So many questions surround this fight: Can Harris continue his 2010 knockout-fest? Which fighter is more deserving of his gaudy record? Will Goncalves stick around long enough for me to memorize his name?

It’s always hard to appraise the skills of a fighter like Goncalves, who has been fighting in Brazil much of his career so far. Twenty-eight fights with nary a decision is an impressive stat, but all of those first round finishes for a regional-level fighter (to this point) always makes you wonder about the level of his competition.

We do know quite a bit about Harris. He has explosive power, likes to take opponents down when the opportunity arises, and sets a fast pace from the opening bell. For Goncalves, who is a Chute Boxe fighter through and through, you have to wonder if he will be able to avoid the takedowns of Harris in order to work his Muay Thai skills. I would guess “no”, although I suppose anything can happen. Harris is much more of a known commodity at this point, and I think he’s smart enough to change levels when needed while taking Goncalves to deep waters.

Prediction: Harris by KO/TKO

Matt Hughes vs. BJ Penn

This is an intriguing bout, especially for two guys who have already faced each other twice. What can we really take away from those fights, though, considering how much has changed since them? This is also true because of the nature of their last bout, where Penn apparently injured his ribs while taking Hughes’ back, which in turn contributed to Hughes pinning him and wailing away for the TKO win.

Then, there’s their recent performances. Hughes looked pretty good in a very non-Hughes type of fight against Renzo Gracie, where he opted to stand and trade for the duration. He then looked really good against Ricardo Almeida in his last fight, choking the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt unconscious with a Schultz front headlock from his wrestling days. However, those aren’t top ten opponents, and Hughes himself hasn’t been a serious title challenger in years. How do you measure his current ability level with those opponents and such large gaps between fights?

What about Penn? He’s lost twice in a row, but both times to the current number one lightweight in the world, Frankie Edgar. And it’s not as if he’s been dominated, knocked out and/or submitted in either bout. Plus, Penn is still a ranked fighter and was ranked the best in the world before those two fights.

How do two decision losses to the number one lightweight rank against consecutive wins against a fighter well past his prime and a resurgent grappler? Furthermore, what happens when you factor in Hughes’ decided size advantage (Penn didn’t cut weight and actually weighed 169 lbs. the week of the fight)? It’s all enough to give you a headache.

So, let’s look at it this way. You can’t say that Edgar’s wins over Penn provide Hughes with any kind of blueprint. After all, Hughes does not have the speed and hands to carry out the kind of game plan that Edgar used. Edgar was able to eschew a fight on the mat because he knew he could out-strike Penn en route to a win. Hughes can’t out-strike Penn for three rounds, so he won’t have that luxury and will be forced to take the fight to the mat at some point.

This is where I will take some things away from their last bout. Before the finish, we saw that Penn is able to out-scramble Hughes and put him in bad positions when given half an opportunity. I think he will do so here, too, and his striking will keep Hughes off-balance in the meanwhile. Hughes may try to pin Penn against the cage for minutes at a time to either wear him down or gain favor with the judges (which is a risky proposition these days), but ultimately, Penn is the guy who can finish this fight standing up or on the mat, and I have to favor him.

Prediction: Penn by submission

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Lyoto Machida

Both of these fighters need a win here to avoid a long detour to another light heavyweight title shot, and you can bet that motivation won’t be a problem for either fighter. Rampage has conceivably realized that fighting provides a better opportunity for him than acting (at least at this point), while Machida must be pretty hungry after being knocked out cold by Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the first loss of his professional career.

Machida’s loss is easy to diagnose as a case of the perfect opponent at the perfect time: it’s not as if Shogun really “exposed” Machida, at least not in the sense that he established some sort of blueprint that just anybody in the division could follow to beat him. Rampage, for instance, certainly does not have the particular skills to do what Shogun did in the way that he did it.

Furthermore, Rampage has an unfortunate tendency to improve without addressing his biggest areas of weakness during his career. He still doesn’t bother to check leg kicks, and he has all but abandoned his wrestling and takedowns during his UFC run. If I had to design a game plan for Rampage in this one, I would tell him to get his hands on Machida, no matter the cost, lean on him, do whatever it takes to get him down, and wear him down with ground and pound. Rampage is the bigger, stronger fighter, and furthermore, suddenly becoming quicker than Machida is not an option.

As Rampage currently fights, though, Machida should have a perfect opponent with which to showcase his skills. Rampage doesn’t bother to check kicks, as pointed out earlier, he tends to only look for power shots, and he becomes impatient quickly when the fight stalls. If he fights the way he has in recent years, I see him chasing Machida, getting tagged, throwing big shots and catching nothing but air, and either getting caught and finished or beaten by decision.

The question is, will he fight a smart fight? I’m leaning towards “no”, since he naively thought Rashad Evans would stand and trade with him, as well as because he and his team have dismissed Machida’s style as nothing special and even made karate jokes in the lead up to the fight. Sounds like a guy who just thinks he can win with the same old style as usual. Whether his cardio is right is another concern, and although he’ll tell you he’s in great shape, he said the same thing before the Evans fight, and we all saw how that turned out. Too many question marks for Rampage, and Machida is tailored to make fighters like Rampage look silly, to boot.

Prediction: Machida by decision

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Tags: BJ Penn, George Sotiropoulos, Gerald Harris, Joe Lauzon, Lyoto Machida, Maiquel Jose Falcao Goncalves, Matt Hughes, Phil Davis, Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson, Tim Boetsch, UFC, UFC 123