UFC 125 Preview

The third major MMA event in three days will take place tonight, as UFC 125 will come to us live from Las Vegas, Nevada. Frankie Edgar will defend his lightweight title against the only man to beat him, Gray Maynard, while plenty of other big names will look to get the year started out with a “W”, also.

Takanori Gomi vs. Clay Guida

On a card with several fights that could turn out to be barn-burners, this one stands out among them. Guida is known for setting a frenetic pace and not slowing down for the duration of his fights, while Gomi enjoys a war as much as the next guy. Furthermore, since Gomi was able to taste his first UFC success in his last bout by knocking out Tyson Griffin and Guida is coming off of two straight wins, this fight actually means someone can get moving towards the upper echelon of the division, too.

There’s no question that Gomi has the best chance to finish this fight. He has the kind of one-punch power that is exceedingly rare at 155 pounds, and he mixes up his strikes well by going to the body as well as the head. However, Guida’s chin is pretty reliable and his style will allow him to absorb a little punishment in order to get in close and tie his foe up.

How this ends up has a lot to do with the distance from which the fight takes place. If Guida can ensure the fight takes place in a phone booth, he’ll likely win a decision. There’s also the matter of Gomi’s gas tank: he didn’t look so fresh in his debut against Kenny Florian, and the Griffin fight didn’t last long enough to indicate whether he’s begun taking his cardio more seriously. Between question marks like that and Guida’s toughness and wrestling advantage, I’ve got to go with Guida.

Prediction: Guida by decision

Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Kim’s only career loss, a UFC 94 split decision dropped to Karo Parisyan, was overturned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission because Parisyan failed his drug test, so Kim figures to be in title contention with another couple of wins. Meanwhile, Diaz is in a similar position, as he has a nice little run going since moving up from lightweight a couple of fights ago.

Diaz, like his brother, likes to work a high volume striking style that favors quantity over quality, at least in terms of power. He focuses on keeping his opponents from getting comfortable, and his Brazilian jiu-jitsu is outstanding once the fight hits the mat. Meanwhile, Kim is a solid all-around fighter with a keen sense of doing just enough to win rounds.

Kim will certainly be stronger, but Diaz’s ground game really makes the fight a dangerous one for Kim if he opts for a takedown. While standing, Kim is much more methodical than Diaz, and it’s not hard to imagine Diaz piling up the points as a result. Kim is a good fighter, but I think he’ll eventually get tired of Diaz’s pesky striking, take it to the floor one too many times, and get caught in a submission.

Prediction: Diaz by submission

Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera

This is a very good fight that should feature two fighters who are desperate to regain relevance in a deep light heavyweight division. However, while Vera may not be a full-blown head case, his motivation seems to wane unpredictably and the only thing that has kept him from succeeding like he should have in the UFC is his head.

Any lapse in focus will be exploited quickly by an opponent as aggressive as Silva, to be sure. Furthermore, while Silva is a bit of a front runner, his aggressiveness should win him rounds should he not be able to finish an opponent the caliber of Vera. Vera is certainly a more well-rounded fighter, and I actually like his striking better than Silva’s, particularly when he uses his vicious leg kicks often. However, it’s a risky proposition to guess that someone will get over pesky issues that have dogged them throughout their career, such as Vera’s underachieving. I’m not going to bet that Vera will care enough to win against a skilled opponent who really wants the win tonight.

Prediction: Silva by KO/TKO

Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann

Given Leben’s seemingly-unlikely resurgence lately, Stann is the underdog for this one. However, Leben’s style complements Stann’s nicely, and both will get exactly the type of fight they are looking for in this one. The question is, who will prevail?

The way Leben fight is often an all-or-nothing proposition. Aside from the threat of being knocked out yourself, the risk of willingly eating punches from your opponent in order to land shots of your own is that it’s hard to win a decision that way if you don’t end up getting the knockout. Stann is a blue collar fighter who could very well take the second or third round if Leben doesn’t have the fight go his way early on.

However, this is the way Leben has always fought, and it’s worked out pretty well for him so far. I’m not going to wag my finger at anyone who rolls with Stann here, but I think Leben will catch him and continue his winning streak.

Prediction: Leben by KO/TKO

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

This UFC Lightweight Championship bout is a rematch of an April, 2008 fight that Maynard won by decision, as surely everyone knows by now. At that point in time, both were just prospects who were not even in the title picture, and a lot has obviously changed since then.

This one is a hard one to call, as Edgar is actually the underdog here because of the tough style matchup Maynard presents, as evidenced by their first fight. However, Edgar can provide a similarly-tough matchup for Maynard if he fights the right way. Maynard will not be able to match Edgar’s speed, and chasing Edgar around the cage could wear down Maynard (physically and mentally) as much as Maynard could wear down Edgar by leaning on him or taking him down regularly.

Although Edgar is no slouch when it comes to wrestling, Maynard’s strength and size gives him a decisive edge in that area. That’s not to say that Edgar can’t defend Maynard’s takedowns, but he’ll have to be prepared for them every time, or Maynard will simply use the attempt to push his smaller opponent against the cage and control him.

Edgar’s best defense against the takedown is not his actual takedown defense, anyway. It’s his movement and striking. He needs to keep Maynard off balance and control the distance throughout the fight, forcing Maynard to shoot from outside. Meanwhile, Maynard alludes to having heavier hands in his pre-fight interviews, which may be true, but they still aren’t particularly heavy, anyway. He’s not going to knock Edgar out.

I’m tempted to go with Maynard, who seems like the safe pick. But Maynard has claimed an interest in standing with Edgar, something he has done in the past with fighters that he was capable of taking down. I think he will do so just enough that Edgar will win at least three out of five rounds en route to his second successful title defense.

Prediction: Edgar by decision

Tags: Brandon Vera, Brian Stann, Chris Leben, Clay Guida, Dong Hyun Kim, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, Takanori Gomi, Thiago Silva, UFC, UFC 125