UFC 126 Main Card Preview

Tonight’s UFC card is not just about the middleweight title showdown between champion Anderson Silva and challenger Vitor Belfort. Three of the four non-title bouts have heavy title implications of their own. Tonight will go a long way in deciding who will be challenging for titles in several different divisions tonight, which should make for some intense, competitive matchups.

Antonio Banuelos vs. Miguel Torres

Either of these guys could be looking at a title shot in 2011 if they can manage to win tonight’s bout followed by another quality win. Torres is no stranger to the top of the bantamweight mountain, as he is the former WEC Bantamweight Champion. Meanwhile, Banuelos has always been in the mix but hasn’t been able to suitably distinguish himself until now. Defeating Torres is a great opportunity to do just that.

Banuelos is a good all-around fighter that is always in the mix for a top ten spot. He has solid wrestling and striking and doesn’t mean being thrown into big fights. He’s calm in adverse moments and will not be affected by the spotlight during his first UFC fight. Of course, neither will Torres, who tends to rise to the occasion and is actually more effective when the pressure is on.

In this fight, Banuelos may be best served to swarm Torres if given even half of a chance. Torres could be overwhelmed as in the Brian Bowles fight if Banuelos can come forward and put a couple of meaningful shots together. Where Banuelos makes a big mistake is if he allows Torres to dictate pace and distance. It will be interesting to see if Banuelos is suckered into taking down Torres in order to rack up points and win rounds. This would be a big mistake in my view, as Torres is always a threat off of his back. In fact, I think Torres takes this one by submission

Prediction: Torres by decision

Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Ellenberger dropped his UFC debut to Carlos Condit by split decision, but has since been very successful, finishing both Mike Pyle and John Howard since then. Ellenberger is a bit of a grinder and will no doubt look to wear down Rocha as the Brazilian makes his second UFC appearance. Rocha’s biggest strength is obviously his jiu-jitsu, but neither the competition he faced in his pre-UFC days or his quick sub against Kris McCray ensure that he’s got the chops to catch someone as crafty and experienced as Ellenberger.

Ellenberger could very well choose to stand and trade for much of the fight, but I see him instead looking to bring the fight to the mat, even though it’s where Rocha is strongest. He may even choose to clinch with Rocha at length early on to wear him down with some wrestling and dirty boxing before taking him to the mat to work his ground and pound. Either way, I’ve got Ellenberger avoiding Rocha’s sub attempts and pounding out a stoppage here.

Prediction: Ellenberger by KO/TKO

Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones

This is actually my most anticipated fight on this card, and has been since it was announced. These two are excellent prospects who could be fighting a rematch to this for the light heavyweight title one day, and you could make a strong case for either (or both) deserving a top ten spot in the division already.

Bader is one of the biggest underdogs on the card, and for the love of God, I can’t understand why. Bader did beat Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, right? Jones has looked more impressive against lesser competition, but how is that any kind of assurance that he’ll continue to look that way against better fighters? In any case, I do think this fight could go either way, and those who are writing off Bader are crazy.

Jones does bring a lot to the matchup, though. He has excellent balance and coordination, along with some wrestling experience (though not on the level of Bader’s) that will help him to keep the fight where he wants it. Bader may take Jones down, but not with a lazy or telegraphed takedown, that’s for sure. This could spell trouble for Bader later in the fight if he tires out and really needs a takedown to steal a round or get away from Jones’ standup.

I think people put a little too much stock into Jones’ unorthodox striking techniques. They are good for keeping opponents off-balance, but I don’t think they are as much of a game-changer in general terms as others seem to. I think his willingness to try whatever it takes to effectively attack is very important and gives him a certain edge over Bader, but I also think that Bader has an edge in a way, since he’ll be sticking more to the basics and going with what works versus whatever comes to mind.

Bader certainly has the advantage in power, though he isn’t as refined when it comes to finishing an opponent who is hurt or even when it comes to effective ground and pound. He’s more of a sledgehammer in that regard, but he can always catch Jones and rock him with a right hand, and that will likely be on Jones’ mind throughout the fight.

I do think Bader can and probably will take Jones down, and I’m not sure about where Jones is at when it comes to defensive jiu-jitsu and his guard game. Bader may be content to strike from the guard, and that will win him rounds and allow him to put doubt and frustration in Jones’ mind. Can Jones take Bader down? Sure, if he finds the right opportunity. I don’t think Bader will give him that opportunity, though. I’m going with Bader in an upset here.

Prediction: Bader by KO/TKO

Ryan Franklin vs. Forrest Griffin

This is an easy pick for fight of the night, and it’s hard to imagine this one not being a briskly-paced standup fight for the majority of the bout. Franklin and Griffin are very similar fighters, in that they stick to good, solid fundamentals and don’t really excel at any particular thing, at least offensively. Franklin does have solid knockout power, but doesn’t look to finish the same way each time like many of the other standouts in the division do. Griffin has great leg kicks and defensive jiu-jitsu, but he’s also been knocked out a couple of times while on his back, too.

There are some question marks with this one, particularly with Griffin. He’s been out of action for awhile, and though I think that “ring rust” is really overplayed as a talking point, it is still true that fighters change a lot in a year or so in this sport. Has Griffin continued to improve since he’s been healthy, and what has Franklin been working on?

Franklin doesn’t tend to work a lot of kicks into his combinations, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to adjust to leg kicks if Griffin starts to feature them. Of course, he also fully expected Anderson Silva to clinch with him once upon a time, and instead of developing a way to avoid the situation he boldly figured that he could just ignore the position and punch away at Silva. We saw how that turned out.

Still, I think Franklin will frustrate Griffin a little bit. I think it will be a close fight, but Franklin will get the better of the exchanges most of the time, accumulating a nice little lead in each round. He also has the advantage of being the only one in the bout with true knockout power. Griffin usually seems to have a sturdy chin, but Franklin can put anyone down with a well-placed shot.

Prediction: Franklin by decision

Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort

When this fight was announced, I had no idea what to expect, but I was leaning towards “boring fight”. Let’s face it, Anderson Silva isn’t exactly a lock to put on great fights anymore, and although he tends to take challenges from Brazilian fighters more personally, he also tends to fight rather…strangely against them. Sure, he doesn’t like Belfort. He wasn’t happy with Demian Maia, though, was he? It seems that Silva is all too happy to try to humiliate his opponents and drag the fight out when he’s angry. Now, whether he’ll be able to do that with Belfort is anybody’s guess, and will almost wholly depend on Belfort’s mindset.

Ah, yes…Vitor Belfort. He’s a bit hard to predict, as well. Thing is, Belfort’s a counter-puncher and if he and Silva both decide to play the “you go first” game, we could see just a handful of strikes thrown in the entire first round. Then you have the fact that Belfort often fades later in fights that he isn’t winning and the fact that he either tends to look outstanding or outright pedestrian, and this becomes a fight that nobody should be betting on.

Technically, Belfort does have the skills to challenge Silva. Silva tends to have a bit more trouble with lefties, and if Belfort hides his left straight behind a right jab, he may find a mark for it. Belfort is also very quick, and Silva has gotten into what is usually a bad habit by simply pulling his head back to avoid punches. I say “usually a bad habit” because 90% of the time, Silva evades punches with this technique and makes his opponents looking stupid. Most fighters simply can’t pull that off, though. With Belfort, if Silva cuts it too close he may get clipped, because Belfort has much quicker, more accurate hands than anyone Silva’s fought recently.

This may be an underrated aspect of this fight: Silva hasn’t faced a really good striker in a really long time. I tend to think he’s developed some bad habits since then, and I remember watching him clown Maia and others while thinking, “if he tried that against a better striker, he’d be in big trouble.” Will he pull that kind of stuff tonight? It’s anybody’s guess.

Another thing to think about: will Belfort bring back the underrated takedown game that he used to use earlier in his career? After seeing the Sonnen fight, he surely has realized that if he uses punches to get inside, he can land takedowns fairly easily. He won’t be giving up wrist control for 45 seconds and submitting to a triangle choke, either, since he’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt himself.

Ironically enough, I think that if the guy marketed as the man with the “fastest hands in MMA” chooses to stand up for the majority of the fight, he’ll be in trouble. Silva is simply a master at not getting hit, even if he wasn’t on his “A” game against Chael Sonnen in that regard. Furthermore, he’s a more versatile striker than Belfort. Pay no attention to the karate training; Belfort is a boxer at heart. If Belfort can fight a smart fight and not fade in the later rounds, he can really win this. Furthermore, there’s always the chance of him clipping Silva early. Also, Silva may give away a few rounds like he has done in his last couple of fights out of sheer cockiness, which can come into play.

There are so many variables that come into play in this one that it’s hard to make a decent pick. If either man showed up with the right mindset and fought a good fight, they could win, especially if the other one was in “headcase mode”. I’ll be damned if I haven’t somehow talked myself into leaning towards Belfort, though, even though deep down I know he’s going to fade later into the fight or make perplexing strategic decisions. Oh, what the hell.

Prediction: Belfort by decision

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Tags: Anderson Silva, Antonio Banuelos, Carlos Eduardo Rocha, Forrest Griffin, Jake Ellenberger, Jon Jones, Miguel Torres, Rich Franklin, Ryan Bader, UFC, UFC 126, Vitor Belfort