UFC 126 Preliminary Bouts Preview

It’s understandable if many MMA fans roll their eyes these days when a card is referred to as “stacked”. However, on rare occasions, the designation is actually accurate, and this is one of them. Even the preliminary bouts feature extremely compelling fights, including the debut of two highly-regarded Japanese stars as well as the “Cowboy” himself, former WEC standout Donald Cerrone. Here are my thoughts on tonight’s preliminary fights.

Kyle Kingsbury vs. Ricardo Romero

Kingsbury has had pretty good success in the UFC since “The Ultimate Fighter 8″ concluded, winning two out of three bouts, including consecutive wins against Razak Al-Hassan and Jared Hamman leading up to this bout. Meanwhile, Romero’s one fight in the Octagon resulted in a win, but did not go as smoothly as planned. Romero was soundly beaten in the first round of his fight against Seth Petruzelli before pulling off a submission by straight armbar in the second stanza. The damage was done, though, as Romero sustained a broken jaw, torn pectoral and sprained knee in the fight.

The questions for this one: will Kingsbury’s size help him neutralize a slight wrestling advantage in favor of Romero? Has Romero had sufficient time to both heal from his laundry list of injuries and prepare for this bout? Will Romero suffer from the same slow start (in interviews he mentioned not feeling comfortable at all in that fight) in this fight?

I think Romero’s talent will win out in the end. He’ll find his way to the mat, possibly even by landing takedowns of his own, which would only expedite the process of gaining a fight-ending submission.

Prediction: Romero by submission

Gabe Ruediger vs. Paul Taylor

Ruediger’s last appearance lasted just two minutes and one second against Joe Lauzon, who submitted him via armbar. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ruediger really did absolutely nothing in that bout, and I’m actually shocked that the recently cut-happy UFC is giving him another shot, especially in the ultra-competitive lightweight division (and given Ruediger’s past embarassments on “The Ultimate Fighter”).

Ruediger is skilled on the mat, though, and getting Taylor there will be paramount if he expects to win. Doing so will be easier said than done. Taylor is strong, athletic and has a well-rounded striking style that will frustrate Ruediger early on and eventually put him away later.

Prediction: Taylor by KO/TKO

Mike Pierce vs. Kenny Robertson

Many fans have been impressed with Pierce, who has won three out of four UFC fights, losing only to Jon Fitch in a fight where Pierce did have his moments. Robertson will have a tough task, debuting in the UFC against such a polished opponent who has already been thrown into pretty deep water and gave a good accounting of himself.

Polish is not something Robertson really has, at least not outside of his submission game. Still, when Pierce plants Robertson on the mat, he’ll be able to stay out of trouble. He may even put Robertson in trouble if he’s able to advance position, which is what I’m going to say will happen here.

Prediction: Pierce by submission

Demetrious Johnson vs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto

First of all, this fight will be available on Facebook at about 7:30 central time for those who “like” the UFC’s page. Make sure to check it out if you get the chance.

If you’re not familiar with Kid Yamamoto, here’s some background on him. He was the most feared 135 pound fighter (and even 145 pound fighter) in the world a few years ago, known for outstanding wrestling, explosive athleticism and peerless aggression. He took time off to make a bid at wrestling in the Olympics, which didn’t work out for him due to injury. Since returning, he’s been off to a slow start, though the UFC showed how much they thought of him by immediately adding him to their new bantamweight division.

Johnson, who prefers to work at his own pace and not have things dictated to him in the cage, will have a hard night ahead of him. Unless the jitters of fighting in the United States and in the UFC for the first time get to him, Kid will push Johnson from the opening bell and not let up. I think the jitters won’t cause any problems and that he’ll actually be even more assertive than usual due to the opportunity he’s been given. Johnson should be in trouble here.

Prediction: Yamamoto by KO/TKO

Donald Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly

This will be a great measuring stick for the WEC’s lightweights in the UFC’s division. Cerrone always brings the same things to his fights: outstanding submissions and dynamic striking. In a lot of ways, Kelly is a similar fighter, though I tend to think that Cerrone is a little bit better in both areas than Kelly is.

Another big advantage that Cerrone has here is that he’s very hard to hurt with strikes. He has a solid chin that allows him to take liberties with his approach to striking with opponents. As long as Cerrone can keep from getting overly aggressive early and putting himself in a situation where Kelly can latch something on for a submission, I think he should win a comfortable, but competitive fight.

Prediction: Cerrone by submission

Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa

I have a soft spot for Japanese MMA and would like to see some of their exports do a little better in the UFC than they historically have, but I fear that will not be the case here. Although I have Omigawa ranked fairly highly and Mendes unranked, this is a great example of how styles really do make fights. People always repeat that mantra, but you have to wonder if they really understand it. Too many times, fans get caught up in who lost to who else without any regard as to whether the loss occurred to a fighter who was tailor made to defeat the losing competitor.

That’s the case here. Omigawa will be forced to fight off of his back all night long, and Mendes will keep enough pressure on Omigawa to keep him from being able to attempt anything too ambitious. Mendes has great awareness on the mat and will likely be able to stay out of trouble, even if Omigawa does try to get something going.

This fight will definitely lead to one of these men being in line for a title shot this year. You have to wonder whether Omigawa will respond positively to the pressure he’ll be under while in unfamiliar territory, too. He’s been in there with a lot of good fighters already in his career, but this is a different situation, and wondering whether he’ll respond better than some of his countrymen have in the past is just another reason to doubt that he’ll pull this one off.

Prediction: Mendes by decision

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Tags: Chad Mendes, Demetrious Johnson, Donald Cerrone, Gabe Ruediger, Kenny Robertson, Kid Yamamoto, Kyle Kingsbury, Michihiro Omigawa, Mike Pierce, Paul Kelly, Paul Taylor, Ricardo Romero