UFC 127 Main Card Preview

BJ Penn will have undoubtedly one of the toughest fights of his career against Jon Fitch, who he faces tonight in a fight with welterweight title implications. Also on the UFC 127 main card are UFC mainstays such as Michael Bisping, George Sotiropoulos, Chris Lytle and others in what should be a quality night of fights. Here are my picks for this evening’s bouts airing live from Australia.

Chris Camozzi vs. Kyle Noke

While both men are 2-0 in the UFC thus far, neither are exactly well-known among most UFC fans, as they haven’t really been featured in the past the way they will be tonight as the opening bout on the main card. Camozzi gets credit for being aware of where he is on the judges’ scorecards and doing what it takes to pull out close wins (ie going for takedowns), while Noke is more likely to go for a decisive finish, though it is more likely to happen on the mat than through standing strikes, as neither man is a particularly threatening striker.

Camozzi is a decent pick by decision, as he may be the stronger wrestler in terms of getting the fight to the mat. However, I like Noke better as an overall grappler, and I think that he will give Camozzi trouble in terms of position and submission attempts, en route to a close win in what may not be a very entertaining bout.

Prediction: Noke by decision

Brian Ebersole vs. Chris Lytle

Ebersole is replacing Carlos Condit after Condit was forced to drop out due to injury, destroying what may have been one of the best fights of the year in the process. Oh, well. Lytle tends to have good fights with just about anyone, though, and this shouldn’t be an exception.

Ebersole will almost certainly try to get this one to the mat, but he must be careful in doing so. Lytle is incredible at snatching submissions during transitions when his opponents are focused on taking him down or improving position, and he has pretty good takedown defense, as well. Lytle has allowed his striking to become a little loose as he has evolved into a bit of a slugger over the last few years, but he is still an adept counter-puncher that is nearly impossible to finish. Well, Fedor fans may say that he is impossible to finish, since he’s only been stopped due to cuts in the past.

Bottom line: Ebersole has his work cut out for him in facing a veteran on a hot streak like Lytle with just a couple of weeks to prepare. Lytle takes this one.

Prediction: Lytle by submission

Dennis Siver vs. George Sotiropoulos

One of these two is poised to enter the upper echelon of the lightweight division, and this fight will decide which one it will be. I already think Sotiropoulos is a legitimate top ten lightweight, of course, but the UFC lightweight title picture is a muddy one, and Sotiropoulos has had to put together a Jon Fitch-like run to seemingly even get the attention of the UFC brass.

Any fight Siver is in tends to be an exciting one, especially because the talented striker throws approximately 2.3 spinning back kicks per round (*that statistic is made up, but probably not far from the truth). Will he be able to land consistently against a fighter as talented and rangy as Sotiropoulos? That’s another matter entirely. Sotiropoulos is great at avoiding damage while closing the distance, and Siver will have to be cautious while striking, because getting close enough to land also puts him in danger of being clinched or taken down. When this one hits the mat, Sotiropoulos has a clear advantage.

Prediction: Sotiropoulos by submission

Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera

This one has sneakily become the most anticipated fight of the night for many fans, even though it doesn’t have the immediate impact on its division that the main event does. Give credit to Jorge Rivera, who has gone out of his way to hype the fight by first calling out Bisping, then mocking him in a serious of humorous and slightly strange videos. Obviously, it’s gotten under Bisping’s skin, as evidenced at the weigh-ins.

One theme throughout the videos is that Bisping has no power and is an overrated striker. Another is that he’s susceptible to the straight right, which Rivera throws pretty well. Is Bisping overrated? Well, I suppose it depends on who’s rating him. He has some of the most loyal, borderline rabid fans in the business, so among them he is certainly overrated. Among the general public, I think his standing as a top 15 fighter is granted and well-earned.

He isn’t the striker many claim he is, however. He does have a good technical base, but he also gets drawn into slugfests and bad exchanges from time to time, and gets hit more than he should for someone with good basics and movement. Rivera is banking on being able to land a killshot at some point in the fight based upon those facts, and it’s hard to imagine Rivera out-pointing Bisping otherwise, unless he takes the fight to the mat.

What really rounds out Bisping is his very good takedown defense and even better transitions and escapes on the mat. He’s able to stand up from the guard as well as anyone today, which keeps him from dropping rounds to better wrestlers. Since he really doesn’t have an abundance of power, this is important.

So, will Rivera land something that will allow him to win the biggest fight of his career? I say, why not? Anything that will get Bisping’s loyal army worked up sounds like an amusing proposition to me, after all.

Prediction: Rivera by KO/TKO

Jon Fitch vs. BJ Penn

Let’s cut to the chase: I wish this fight was more intriguing. I really do. However, to me and most other people I’ve talked to, it simply isn’t. It’s too cut-and-dry in favor of Fitch, who will have the luxury of bullying an opponent who is 15-20 pounds lighter as of fight time.

One problem Penn has faced throughout his career is his own stubbornness. It’s almost as if he knows how good he is, so he stacks the deck against himself to make it more interesting. Now, I could understand him doing that if he had ever put together a GSP or Anderson Silva-type run within either the lightweight or the welterweight division, but he’s never allowed himself to truly do that. In this case, his stubborn refusal to truly work on his wrestling and to put on muscle that would make him more appropriate for welterweight will hold him back.

Fitch is not going to get caught in a submission here. Penn’s takedown defense is very good, but he owes it more to his athleticism and otherworldly sense of balance than any real technique that he’s drilled over the years with better wrestlers. He’s been working with Matt Hughes on being grinded against the cage and having a bigger fighter leaning on him, which is puzzling. It’s a three-round fight- it means little to not get tired if you end up dropping the first two rounds, anyway. We’ve already seen that judges are more than willing to award rounds- and fights- to a competitor that’s content to push his opponent against the cage and throw a strike here and there.

The real x-factor here is not necessarily Penn being able to pull off a submission, but being able to hurt Fitch with his considerable power. However, Fitch has a sturdy chin (as exhibited in the GSP fight) and honestly, I just can’t see a route for Penn to win here. But hey, I’m open to being shocked and astounded by Penn one more time, if it comes to that.

So, now that I’ve officially pissed off two of the more loyal, outspoken fan bases in the sport…

Prediction: Fitch by decision

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Tags: BJ Penn, Brian Ebersole, Chris Camozzi, Chris Lytle, Dennis Siver, George Sotiropoulos, Jon Fitch, Jorge Rivera, Kyle Noke, Michael Bisping, UFC, UFC 127