UFC 128 Preview

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua returns tonight after yet another long injury layoff to defend his UFC Light Heavyweight Championship against the dynamic Jon Jones, who will attempt to do what Rua did years ago by coming out of nowhere as a young fighter to ascend to the top of the division. Fans and media members alike have been more than willing to draw the comparison, and we’ll find out tonight whether Jones has it in him to make the comparison justified.

Meanwhile, plenty of other quality bouts line both the main card and preliminary portion of tonight’s event, though I’ll restrict my analysis to the main card for this one. Here are my thoughts on each of tonight’s main card fights:

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

Cro Cop’s last appearance in his up and down UFC career was against Frank Mir in a slow, methodical fight that ended when Mir won with a stunning knockout out of nowhere. I don’t think that the knockout itself is as damning of Cro Cop as the inactivity and lack of enthusiasm or any kind of aggression is, honestly. Cro Cop’s heart hasn’t seemed to be in it for awhile and that will continue to trouble him as long as it is the case.

Schaub is still in the beginning of what appears to be a promising career, on the other hand. Not stellar in any one area at this point, he does have tremendous athleticism, learns quickly and has a good amount of power as well as pretty good standup technique thus far. He also seems to be pretty coachable and is willing to implement strategies laid out for him by mastermind Greg Jackson.

Schaub not only has the motivation, youth and athleticism, but he also has great training partners and an excellent camp, two other things Cro Cop does not have. Cro Cop doesn’t seem to have improved since his Pride days, and has actually moved in the other direction. In fact, these are two fighters moving in opposite directions, and while Cro Cop can still be dangerous and is a tough nut to crack for sure, Schaub will win this one based as much on desire and effort as skill.

Prediction: Schaub by decision

Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

This could be a tremendous fight. I’m a fan of the Miller brothers, both of whom are always threatening to enter the upper echelon of their respective weight classes (I think that Jim Miller is already there, by the way). However, I think that Miller’s hard work in this one will only lead to frustration at just about every turn, due to Marquardt’s overall advantage in terms of ability.

Marquardt is a very good striker and will pepper Miller as long as they remain standing. Meanwhile, I think Miller will try to turn this one into an old-fashioned scrap, but Marquardt’s takedown defense should be up to the task and he won’t tire out as fast as Miller would like. Sure, Marquardt looked less than great in recent fights against Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami, but both of those men are stronger and better wrestlers than Miller, anyway.

If there’s anything that worries me about Marquardt, it’s his complacency at times. If he feels he’s got the “lead” in a fight, he seems to let up or cruise through the late stages of the bout. This could trouble him if it happens against Miller, who will be more than happy to seize any opportunities Marquardt leaves him. Still, I think a motivated and energized Marquardt takes this one in a lively contest.

Prediction: Marquardt by decision

Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

The afore-mentioned other Miller brother takes on the extremely gifted and dangerous Shalorus in a bout that will be as much about what’s going on inside Shalorus’ head as it will be about who can outperform the other.

Shalorus, like many former wrestling standouts, has fallen in love with striking, and in particular with slugging it out. Shalorus does have fairly heavy hands, but has taken things to the extreme of simply winging wide hooks and overhand rights rather than using his striking as a supplement to his greatest skill- his wrestling.

That gives Miller an opportunity. Miller would not be able to out-wrestle Shalorus in a straight up wrestling match, but that’s not what this is. With Shalorus engrossed in the task of trying to land a big shot, Miller will use his own underrated striking to land a greater number of shots, while benefiting from Shalorus’ decision to ignore his own base. Miller takes a good one here if he can stay clean and avoid being on the receiving end of any big shots, which shouldn’t be a problem.

Prediction: Miller by decision

Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland

Faber’s next step on the road to a bantamweight title shot against Dominick Cruz puts him against Eddie Wineland, who may not have near the name recognition of Faber, but is a great fighter nonetheless.

The thing is, this is a very dangerous fight for Faber. Wineland has great power in his hands and one mistake from Faber can easily lead to a defeat that would shock many who believe that Faber is somehow a cinch to win this one. Given that Faber has shown in the past that he likes to use somewhat…eccentric striking techniques, he could end up putting himself at unnecessary risk in this one unless he reins himself in a bit.

If Faber can avoid trouble standing up, he should be able to out-muscle and take Wineland down, where Wineland will be in big trouble. Faber is not your traditional submission artist, but works a game that allows his explosiveness, strength and superb sense of positioning to snatch up submissions when the opportunities present themselves. He’ll do that here in a fight that could have some tense moments for Faber fans.

Prediction: Faber by submission

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (Champion) vs. Jon Jones

Jon Jones is taking this one on relatively short notice, albeit after cruising to victory against Ryan Bader at UFC 126 just a month and a half ago. Meanwhile, Shogun has his own question mark, returning for this bout after a long layoff following his UFC light heavyweight championship victory over Lyoto Machida about ten months ago. The reason? Another knee injury and resulting surgery in a career that has been plagued by them.

Shogun has managed to be successful despite all of his injury problems, and he has assured everyone that he is truly healthy for this fight. Dana White even waited longer than he wanted to for Shogun’s first title defense to ensure the champ was truly healthy, so I’m not worried about that. What about his cardio, though? If he looks like he did against Forrest Griffin, could Jones beat him? Surely.

I don’t think the late notice for Jones will be a factor. Jones is a young fighter in fantastic shape, and he was already in good shape for the Bader fight. A longer training camp is favorable, but against an opponent coming off a long injury layoff, it shouldn’t be a factor.

What will be a factor is Jones’ inexperience. He has gotten by to this point on pure talent and athleticism, as well as the type of creativity that you don’t often see in this sport. However, he will be in there with a fighter who is as talented and skilled as anyone else in the weight class, and who will be better technically standing up and on the mat.

Everyone focuses on the standup portion of this bout, but on the mat is where Jones may really get in trouble. He may be able to take Shogun down, and that would be a pretty good spot to be in, but Shogun is still a very talented grappler, while Jones somewhat foolishly believes that he can hang with Shogun on the mat.

Jones will be a champion one day, but I don’t think today will be that day. His best bet is to make this fight last, but I think youthful exuberance will get the best of him and he’ll get himself in some exchanges that he shouldn’t have gotten himself into, leading to a stoppage in the first couple of rounds.

Prediction: Rua by KO/TKO

Tags: Dan Miller, Eddie Wineland, Jim Miller, Jon Jones, Kamal Shalorus, Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua, Nate Marquardt, UFC, UFC 128, Urijah Faber