UFC 129: Main Card Preview

With twelve bouts on the UFC 129 card, none is bigger than the one that did the most to attract 55,000 fans to the Rogers Centre: Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields. However, all five bouts are worth watching and are intriguing in their own right, including the other title bout between UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo and challenger Mark Hominick. Here are my thoughts on UFC 129′s main card fights.

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

The first fight of the main card will introduce UFC fans to Ben Henderson, the longtime WEC Lightweight Champion and a legitimate elite lightweight in his own right. If you weren’t able (or just weren’t willing) to watch the WEC when Henderson was fighting, you’re in for a treat.

Henderson is aggressive and provides a frustrating matchup to most fighters, Bocek probably included. Bocek is no slouch and is particularly good on the mat, but I have a feeling that scoring points, doing damage or threatening Henderson with a submission will be about as frustrating as trying to catch a fly with chopsticks. Er, for those other than Miyagi-san, that is.

Henderson has an advantage in that he has ridiculous submission defense and can stand to be aggressive without paying for it most of the time. For anyone who can’t get the image of Henderson being kicked by an airborne Anthony Pettis last year, this fight should go a long way toward helping Henderson create some new memories.

Prediction: Henderson by decision

Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

What is easily the least exciting of UFC 129′s main card bouts should at least make for an interesting matchup, as these two fight a very similar style, utilizing wrestling and chipping away on opponents when the opportunity presents itself. Brilz is still probably a bit miffed about being slighted by the judges against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, while Matyushenko was able to rebound after being defeated by Jon Jones fairly recently.

With two fighters of similar age and of similar mindsets, you have to ask simply which one is better. For me, that’s Brilz, who has the cleaner, more effective standup and better takedowns, to boot. I think he’ll be able to win a hard-fought decision, though I don’t expect it to be a contender for fight of the night. To be honest, this one is a fight that I’m not sure should be on the main card.

Prediction: Brilz by decision

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

I almost feel like Couture should be the favorite here, as his style seems perfectly suited to give Machida fits. This is particularly true since Machida was willing to let Quinton “Rampage” Jackson dictate the fight much more than he should have in his last UFC appearance. It’s easy for me to imagine the crafty old Couture pinning Machida against the cage, frustrating him and making the judges’ hearts all go a-flutter.

However, I’m going to show faith that Machida has learned from his mistakes and is willing to take a more proactive (yet still elusive) approach. He needs to make it dangerous for Couture to close the distance by hitting him hard and circling away to avoid the clinch. If he can do that, he should be able to accumulate some damage on Couture and work towards a finish. If he can’t do that and lets Couture get his paws on him, it’s going to be a long night. Couture has a fair chance to end his career with yet another big win here, and I’m more than a little uneasy about this pick.

Prediction: Machida by KO/TKO

UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

My odds-on favorite for fight of the night, this one should be a war while it lasts. Hominick is going to absolutely bring it to Aldo, which is about the only thing he can do. A more conservative gameplan just means a slow death via leg kicks, like what Urijah Faber memorably endured against Aldo. Takedowns from Hominick are likely to be avoided and could be met with counter knees that would be more than able to put Hominick to sleep. So, Hominick should come at him and hope for the best.

The problem is that Aldo is one of the best strikers on the planet, a true natural when it comes to exchanges. His great sense of timing will allow him to capitalize on the holes left in Hominick’s defense when the challenger gets aggressive, and you can expect to see Aldo capping off combinations with leg kicks early and often.

Those will be a deciding factor and will open Hominick’s defense up for the rest of Aldo’s game, leading to a steep decline for Hominick in rounds two and possibly three. That’s when I expect Aldo to finally pounce after finally taking the fight out of Hominick, who will be an extremely game- and definitely dangerous- opponent. Hominick always has a puncher’s chance, of course.

Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO

UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields

This is a great fight, and Shields is certainly an underrated challenger. I don’t know that he’s more dangerous than someone like Thiago Alves…I just think he’s different, honestly. Shields is not going to threaten with his standup, but is masterful on the ground, particularly when it comes to positioning.

The scrambles are where Shields makes his money, and he’s opportunistic when it comes to sweeping opponents or slapping submissions on them like he did with Robbie Lawler. However, I don’t think he’ll have much success with taking St. Pierre down. Will St. Pierre take him down? I don’t think so- at least not early on.

See, the decisive element here in my book is St. Pierre’s excellent and underrated standup. Shields is simply not a good standup fighter; he’s awkward and not very quick with his strikes. St. Pierre will be able to eat him alive with the jab, which will set up some low kick possibilities and the chance to land more powerful punches in the late rounds. Will he get more aggressive later in the fight, unlike in the Josh Koscheck fight, where he was content to stick with just jabbing even when Koscheck showed he could barely defend himself? No one knows.

If he does let Shields hang around, he’ll just make the fight more dangerous for himself. Any possible way of getting St. Pierre to the mat will be attempted, and a successful attempt paves the way for danger, as Shields could definitely put St. Pierre in a dangerous position that is hard to defend. Having said that, I do think St. Pierre can pass those tests if they do occur, as long as they don’t occur frequently.

I’m more hoping than anything that St. Pierre will work to finish this fight once he wears Shields down. Of course, I wouldn’t bet on it.

Prediction: St. Pierre by KO/TKO

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Tags: Ben Henderson, Georges St. Pierre, Jake Shields, Jason Brilz, Jose Aldo, Lyoto Machida, Mark Bocek, Mark Hominick, Randy Couture, UFC, UFC 129, Vladimir Matyushenko