UFC 130: Main Card Preview

While it’s definitely a bummer that we’re not seeing Edgar-Maynard 3 tonight, an objective fan will probably admit that we are still left with a pretty good card. Not only do we have some high-profile names involved, but two of the fights in particular have “fight of the night” written all over them. Read on for my thoughts about tonight’s five main card bouts.

Jorge Santiago vs. Brian Stann

Your excitement for this bout may very well hinge upon what type of fan you are. If you generally stick to the UFC’s offerings, you may either remember Santiago as a former UFC fighter who had a 1-2 stint with the promotion or not even remember him at all. If you follow the world MMA scene, though, you’re probably pretty pumped for Santiago’s return.

Santiago has blossomed into a world-class middleweight in his time abroad, a fighter with plenty of skill and tons of heart. Meanwhile, Stann has plenty of both as well; he’s your stereotypical blue-collar fighter, only with capable power in both hands.

Neither guy will shy away from a good pace in this one, which should make it a lot of fun for all of us. I think Santiago is more refined overall, but Stann provides the better chance for an actual knockout within the fight. We’re not too likely to see a submission here, though I wouldn’t doubt that Santiago will try to get the fight to the mat a few times during the bout.

If Santiago can get the better of most of the exchanges, which I think he can, and avoid becoming a victim of Stann’s power, he should win a fun and competitive bout.

Prediction: Santiago by decision

Travis Browne vs. Stefan Struve

If every main card has a “meh” bout, this one is definitely mine. I’m not really sold on Struve, who has won four in a row but not exactly against elite competition. He’s won a couple of fights, such as his victory over Christian Morecraft, where he was very complacent and got into trouble early on and was able to turn the tide somehow. How do you look at those types of wins? Is it a testament to his heart and stamina or to his opponent’s failure to finish? Is it a bit of both?

I still think that Struve’s willingness to absorb punishment off his back is going to be a serious problem, one that could manifest itself in this very bout. Both are very tall men, but Browne is built a bit heavier and should be able to push Struve around the cage and bully him up a bit. Struve is a capable enough striker, though lacking a bit in both quickness and technique, and has surprising power. That said, I think Browne focuses on closing the distance and keeping the fight within (his) arm’s reach.

That approach will work for him, and some takedowns and a lack of capable defense for Struve off of his back will decide this one. I think Browne pounds out Struve at some point for the win.

Prediction: Browne by KO/TKO

Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story

This one has “upset special” written all over it, with a longtime top five welterweight taking on a surging, but still largely unrecognized fighter in Rick Story. Despite an impressive run and a nifty nickname (“The Horror”), Story hasn’t gotten a lot of recognition from casual fans and that could very well change tonight, as he’s gotten the chance to prove himself against a true beast in Alves.

If you’re rooting for Story, there’s a lot to feel good about here. For one, weight cuts for Alves have been an adventure over the last couple of years. He’s missed weight on occasion and also looked absolutely lethargic after actually making weight. Despite many people (including Dana White) encouraging Alves to move up to 185 pounds, he’s stubbornly stuck with the welterweight division, and I always wonder if it’s catching up to him.

Also, Story has a collegiate wrestling background and could theoretically pressure Alves on the way to a victory by closing the gap and keeping Alves either against the cage or on the mat. The problem is that closing the distance against Alves is an exceedingly dangerous task. Alves is adept at catching opponents with knees as they shoot or rush in; he’s also able to circle away from advancing fighters while peppering them with punches and deadly leg kicks.

If Alves can get a rhythm with his leg kicks and put a hurting on Story early and often, this is his fight for sure. All the signs of an upset are here, but I’m going with Alves anyway, hoping that he won’t have had a horrible weight cut and can impose his game plan on Story rather than the other way around.

Prediction: Alves by KO/TKO

Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

Mir’s fights are a nightmare to pick. For one, you never know which version of Mir you’re going to get. By his own admission, he has experimented with several diets and body weights over the last few years alone. Sometimes, he’ll look brilliant and others, he’ll look lethargic or even gun-shy, as he did through the vast majority of the Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic fight.

Nelson always provides you with a solid, steady effort, however. Thus, he presents a safe pick here. He has better one-punch power than Mir and may even have the edge on takedowns, to boot. His cardio is better than Mir’s, which is surprising to those who have never seen him fight before and can’t comprehend someone with that belly being able to fight for fifteen minutes without a problem.

That said, his striking is a bit one-note in its approach: he really wants to land that overhand right, and to hell with everything else. Mir, by contrast, has grown into a pretty good striker who mixes things up very nicely. I can see him outpointing Nelson on the feet, to be sure.

If this fight should hit the mat, it all depends on who’s on top. Nelson’s top control is superb, and he will not let Mir up easily and certainly won’t get caught in anything while on top. We haven’t seen a lot of Nelson on his back, but I would tend to think that Mir would have a similar advantage if he planted Nelson on the mat. A mat battle is actually not the best outcome if you’re hoping for a fast-paced fight, as it’s likely to lead to a lot of stalemates.

I really want to pick Nelson here, and I’ll probably kick myself later for not doing so, but I just think Mir is the better-skilled fighter, and I think this fight will mostly take place standing up. Nelson represents the chance to finish while standing, but Mir will outpoint him on the way to victory.

Prediction: Mir by decision

Matt Hamill vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

Oh, this fight. Rampage vs. Thiago Silva would have been a lot of fun, and Hamill seems like a name drawn out of a hat, to be honest. He’s sneaky good in that his standup looks straight up awful and his actual technique everywhere is rather unimpressive, but he’s always a tough out against any opponent nonetheless. He’s been able to stand and trade with supposedly more skilled opponents even though he often looks like a bodybuilder with four months of kickboxing class under his belt with the awkward, slow strikes he throws.

Then there’s Rampage. His wrestling is not as good as many have always thought, and the lack of his “trademark” slams in his UFC run is obviously due to the fact that his opponents have actual wrestling ability, unlike in Pride where striking and jiu jitsu were king. However, Hamill has shown a willingness to stand and trade with opponents, even when it wouldn’t appear to be the smart choice, so I doubt that will change here.

If I’m right, Hamill will be sealing his own fate, as his predictable and rudimentary punching combos will provide a talented and powerful counter-striker like Rampage with a lot of opportunities to finish the fight. He’ll do so at some point.

Prediction: Rampage by KO/TKO

E-Mail Jon Hartley

Tags: Brian Stann, Frank Mir, Jorge Santiago, Matt Hamill, Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson, Rick Story, Roy Nelson, Stefan Struve, Thiago Alves, Travis Browne, UFC, UFC 130