UFC 130: Preliminary Bouts Preview

Unlike the main card tonight, the preliminary bouts look more or less as they were intended to. There should be some pretty good action before the main card begins, and we will again be able to see the preliminary bouts through Spike TV and Facebook. Let’s take a look at what you should expect when the prelims begin tonight.

Renan “Barao” vs. Cole Escovedo

Stop. I know what you’re thinking. “Oh, the guy who hates the trend of fighters’ nicknames being used as their last names is jumping on the bandwagon.” Yeah, well, the guy’s full name is Renan “Barao” do Nascimento Mota Pegado. In this case, I don’t mind foregoing the last name, alright?

Barao is one of Brazil’s better prospects, carrying a 25-1 record into this fight, with the last two wins coming in the WEC. More impressively, he lost his first pro fight and has thus won 25 in a row at this point. He brings good standup and excellent mat skills to the fight.

Escovedo is a guy you have to pull for a little bit, since he lost three years of his career to probably the worst staph infection in the history of the sport, which even left him paralyzed at one point. Escovedo may be forced to strike with Barao in this one, since his wrestling isn’t overpowering. Barao will likely be able to get to the mat if things get dicey for him, on the other hand. I give Barao the edge in this one as a result.

Prediction: Barao by submission

Chris Cariaso vs. Michael McDonald

After short stays in the WEC, both fighters won their UFC debuts, with Cariaso beating Will Campuzano and McDonald defeating Edwin Figueroa. Both fighters are capable of winning what should be a pretty close bout, although Cariaso’s wrestling may provide the biggest edge for either man in the contest.

I do like McDonald’s striking a little more, but Cariaso’s should hold up fairly well in exchanges. It’s almost a pick ‘em on the feet, I’d suppose. Give me Cariaso, as I think a few timely takedowns will help him get the nod from the judges.

Prediction: Cariaso by decision

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Gleison Tibau

Oliveira is back in the UFC after four straight wins outside of the organization, but he draws a tough matchup here against the incredibly strong Tibau.

Tibau dwarfs most opponents in the weight class when it comes to size, and he’s no slouch in the ability department, to boot. Oliveira isn’t exactly an elite finisher, and I’m not having an easy time seeing how he beats Tibau in a fifteen-minute fight, which I think this one will be.

Tibau is a better wrestler and more importantly, a better tactician who is very savvy when it comes to scoring points on the judges’ scorecards. I think he’ll be smart enough to switch gears if something isn’t working for him and be able to keep the pressure on throughout the fight. His cardio has always held up, so there’s no worries when it comes to tiring himself out while pushing the pace, either. Oliveira has his hands full in this one and will really have to turn in a focused effort to pull it off.

Prediction: Tibau by decision

Tim Boetsch vs. Kendall Grove

Boetsch is doing the “hip” thing to be cool like the kids and dropping a weight class. That’s the thing to do these days, don’t ya know! Having turned in an unspectacular .500 run in his last 6 bouts and appearing to be a little flabby anyway, it does seem to make sense to go to 185 pounds. Grove, meanwhile, is forever on the cusp of Cutsville, having lost 3 out of 5 and 5 out of his last 9 fights. He’s been trapped in a win one, lose one pattern for a couple of years now.

This has the “right decision but crowd unhappy” label written all over it, as I can see Grove scoring at opportune times with superior striking and reach, as well as a submission attempt or two, but Boetsch will control the fight throughout with takedowns and smothering control on the mat.

In the end, I don’t think that Grove has the knockout power to put Boetsch away. I doubt he’ll get the crafty veteran in a submission, either, though it could happen. Boetsch is the safe bet here, and he wins enough of the fight to take a judges’ decision that leaves Grove and the fans equally frustrated.

Prediction: Boetsch by decision

Demetrious Johnson vs. Miguel Torres

I still think Torres, the former WEC Bantamweight Champion, has plenty left to offer in the division. However, this is not a good matchup for him stylistically. Johnson is very quick and has excellent wrestling. He should also be more likely to land in the exchanges, though Torres is no slouch in the striking department.

Torres was able to control the pace in his UFC debut against Antonio Banuelos by using his reach advantage and jabbing his way to victory. Count on that not happening tonight, as Johnson will work too hard at closing the distance and fighting Torres in a proverbial phone booth rather than staying at range and foolishly letting Torres work like Banuelos did.

I think that you can count on Johnson taking Torres down in this one. The regularity of that happening will depend on how the standup portion of the fight goes, though I expect that Johnson will give a good account of himself there, too.

The real question then becomes, “will Torres be able to submit Johnson?” I don’t know that he will. In particular, Johnson has been improving so much with each fight in his career that there’s no reason to assume that he will leave Torres good opportunities to submit him. He’s already pretty savvy about avoiding submissions as it is, and though Torres is crafty off of his back, I don’t have a hard time seeing Johnson being able to nullify attempts before they pose a serious challenge. I’d like to see Torres keep his momentum going, but I’m not hopeful about it happening.

Prediction: Johnson by decision

Tags: Chris Cariaso, Cole Escovedo, Demetrious Johnson, Gleison Tibau, Kendall Grove, Michael McDonald, Miguel Torres, Rafaello Oliveira, Renan Barao, Tim Boetsch, UFC, UFC 130