UFC 131 Preview

I’m not going to pretend that this card hasn’t lost a bit of luster since Brock Lesnar had to drop out due to another bout with diverticulitis, but Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos is not a bad fight. It should be almost as fun as the original, and the rest of the main card features a smattering of recognizable talent along with a few fighters who may be poised to make a big statement, as well. Here are my picks for tomorrow night’s main card bouts.

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha

Occasionally, fights present themselves that can be broken down as simply as “if fighter a doesn’t do ____, he’s done for.” This is one of those fights, “fighter a” is Vagner Rocha, and the blank should contain “get Cerrone to the mat”.

Rocha is your prototypical (stereotypical?) Brazilian prospect; he’s strong in jiu-jitsu and considerably less so in everything else. Meanwhile, Cerrone is a danger to most on the mat and has aggressive, dynamic striking. Rocha will not be able to really test Cerrone’s biggest weakness: his defensive wrestling.

Whether Rocha will doggedly pursue takedowns or even pull guard (which Cerrone amusingly asked Rocha not to do in a recent interview) if necessary will be a big factor. We’ve seen many BJJ-based fighters sort of shrug and relegate themselves to losing a prolonged standup battle when their first few takedown attempts are easily shrugged off…will Rocha be among that group?

I don’t know that it matters, as this is as easy a fight to predict as there is on the entire card. Cerrone busts up Rocha standing up while stuffing the occasional takedown attempt for the win.

Prediction: Cerrone by KO/TKO

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz

A more interesting matchup presents itself in the second televised bout of the evening, as wrestler-turned-brawler Munoz looks to club his way through yet another win against dynamic-grappler-turned-decision-specialist Maia.

Maia was becoming a fan favorite with his willing standup and full-throttle submission game before a strange and memorable (for all the wrong reasons) loss to Anderson Silva derailed his progress. Since then, he’s won two rather lackluster decisions against rather lackluster opponents: Mario Miranda and Kendall Grove. This is Maia’s toughest test in awhile and he needs to impress here.

Munoz has pounded his way to five wins in six fights against decent competition; his most recent wins against Aaron Simpson (decision) and CB Dollaway (KO) are also his most impressive to date. His main advantage tomorrow night will be his striking power, both standing and from the top position on the mat.

Maia is a more technical striker, but he’s also considerably less comfortable exchanging than Munoz is. Like all powerful punchers, Munoz has a swagger to him that exceeds his technical ability, as he favors heavy, looping punches over straight, economical ones. If he lands on Maia, it could obviously be a very short night. Maia will know this, though, and do his best to close the distance and get the fight to the mat one way or another.

Maia could conceivably take Munoz down, but it’s not altogether likely. He will get the fight to the mat somehow, but the question is whether Munoz will be cool with that or if he’ll endeavor to keep the fight standing, instead. A mat battle would be great to watch because Munoz is very aggressive with his ground and pound, as is Maia with his submission attempts. If this fight hits the mat regularly, there’s no way it goes to a decision. I think (hope?) that Munoz’s aggressiveness on the mat will give Maia both the opportunity to submit him and the urgency to make it happen.

Prediction: Maia by submission

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman

This fight won’t be highly anticipated by fans who look for recognizable names, but it should be. These heavyweights have a combined 26 professional wins, but only one combined decision. If you can make a bet with an uninformed friend over whether this one goes the distance, it’s easy money no matter the odds.

Furthermore, this is a true “striker vs. grappler matchup”, as much as I dislike the notion of such things in 2011. If this fight was guaranteed not to hit the mat, Herman would be guaranteed a win. Conversely, there’s no way that Herman would survive fifteen rounds on the mat with Einemo, who is a gifted grappler.

Herman will rely too much on knees and kicks in his striking, however, which will gift Einemo a takedown or two. That will be enough for Einemo to take advantage and quickly move towards a submission, giving him the upset victory.

Prediction: Einemo by submission

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes

The Incredible Shrinking Kenny stepped on the scales today at 35 pounds less than he did in his official UFC debut six years and fifteen fights ago. Everything that he’s said indicates that this is (finally) the right weight class for him and that he feels great as a featherweight.

Do we believe him? Sure. He documented his weight quite publicly leading up to the fight and appears to have had a good cut, to boot. So let’s cast any doubts about his strength or stamina tomorrow aside and look at the actual matchup, instead.

In overall skills, I favor Florian, who has much better standup, a good ground game, and always has a sound strategy, to boot. Nunes is great when he can apply pressure and keep opponents uncomfortable, and that’s not a bad way to fight Florian. However, if Florian can strike to keep his distance and match Nunes’ strength and pace, he will take some rounds on the judges’ scorecards.

I don’t know that either fighter can reasonably be expected to finish the other, and I wouldn’t be surprised seeing both fighters win one round apiece. I think Florian is savvy and skilled enough to take two out of three, though, which is how I expect this one to turn out.

Prediction: Florian by decision

Shane Carwin vs. Junior dos Santos

This pair of heavyweights, like Einemo and Herman, have one decision win between them, and Carwin has been past the first round just once in his entire career. It’s safe to expect some considerable fireworks here.

Carwin is a pretty big question mark now, though. His cardio looked less than great after he failed to finish Brock Lesnar, who made it through a dreadful first round in a gutsy performance before dominating Carwin in the second en route to a submission. Carwin looked awful in the second round; he was entirely depleted. However, a drop of some excess pounds and an apparent change in training strategy makes me wonder if he won’t have more in the tank this time around.

Dos Santos has no such concerns, and has looked outstanding in his six UFC fights, all of which he has won convincingly. There are no questions regarding his superiority in the standup aspect of the fight against Carwin, who lacks dos Santos’ speed and technical savvy, especially in the footwork department. However, Carwin could be the hardest puncher in the division, which is quite an equalizer.

Making things even harder to predict is the fact that Carwin has a great chin, as he showed in his memorable win over Gabriel Gonzaga some time ago. He’s also fairly smart about closing the distance when he’s faced with a more technical striker, as he showed when punishing Frank Mir against the cage in their bout.

The real x-factor here, besides Carwin’s gas tank, is dos Santos’ ground game. I don’t necessarily see him subbing Carwin from his back, but I do see him being very hard to take and hold down. This will all help him wear Carwin out, and once we hit the second round, Carwin’s takedowns will be sloppy if he doesn’t have much left in the tank. That seems like the safe way to go here, as dos Santos likely starts teeing off after weathering an early storm from Carwin.

Prediction: dos Santos by KO/TKO

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Tags: Dave Herman, Demian Maia, Diego Nunes, Donald Cerrone, Jon Olav Einemo, Junior Dos Santos, Kenny Florian, Mark Munoz, Shane Carwin, UFC, UFC 131, Vagner Rocha