UFC 135 Preview

Even though UFC 135 is anchored by two fights with one fighter massively favored over his opponent (Jon Jones and Josh Koscheck are both -600 favorites), there’s something about this card that makes me think it will be extremely entertaining. Featuring a fun heavyweight scrap between Mark Hunt and Ben Rothwell to open the main card, as well, this is one night of fights you won’t want to miss, even if you think you know how things will end up going.

One person that never seems to know which way things will go? This guy right here. Let’s see if I can rebound from some so-so predictions this month with my UFC 135 picks.

Mark Hunt vs. Ben Rothwell

You know what gets me in trouble? Fights like this one. I start out thinking one fighter (Rothwell) will certainly have the advantage, then start thinking how nice it’d be to see the other guy win, then slowly talk myself into picking with my heart, not my head.

I’ve always enjoyed watching Mark Hunt fight, ever since he was absorbing leg kicks like some kind of kickboxing vortex in his K-1 days. When Jerome LeBanner said that Hunt’s “balls are as big as his belly,” it was a pretty solid compliment. I mean, check out Hunt’s belly.

What’s not to like about a guy who was “discovered” in a street fight outside of a bar and, with minimal training, won the most prestigious striking tournament in the world? Sure, I didn’t send him a Christmas card the year that he laid on Wanderlei Silva and won a decision over him, but I’ve made amends with that particular slight and moved on.

I’d like to believe that he’s been working hard on his takedown defense and cardio so that he can really take this fight seriously and give us a good show. However, I just keep thinking that Rothwell is not only the better all-around fighter, but (most importantly) the more strategic fighter.

Rothwell isn’t going to mess around with Hunt standing up. He’s going to take him down, just as he took down Gilbert Yvel. Even if Hunt defends a few takedowns, he will be so preoccupied by the threat of being put on his back that his effectively-wild striking will be essentially neutered in this one.

And if (when?) the fight hits the mat, Hunt is in trouble. Let’s not forget what Sean McCorkle did to Hunt, finishing him with a straight armbar in just over a minute. Hunt made that way too easy for McCorkle, and though I’m not going to call a Rothwell submission, I think there are other things to be exploited here, as well. Rothwell won’t even necessarily look for a sub and may be perfectly happy to advance position, control Hunt and strike.

If Rothwell goes out there and gets into a brawl with Hunt, Hunt will likely win, and so will the fans, honestly. However, I think Rothwell’s better instincts will keep him from doing anything foolish, allowing him to win in a somewhat disappointing bout.

Prediction: Rothwell by KO/TKO

Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi

This is an excellent piece of matchmaking and leaves both fighters with viable chances to shine. Gomi gets to fight someone without Division I wrestling credentials to stifle his striking, while Diaz fights a striker that may be extremely vulnerable to his reach and the high-volume boxing style he shares with his brother, Nick.

One thing that makes me hesitant to pick Gomi is that I can definitely foresee him fading in the later part of the fight. He also doesn’t mind taking shots to give them back, which may be a good (although reckless) strategy against some, but not so much against a fighter like Diaz. Diaz has a sturdy chin and while his punches may not bother you individually, they have a way of mounting and seem to accumulate before opponents realize that they need to start getting out of the way.

However, Nate’s version of the Diaz boxing style isn’t as effective as his brothers, and he lacks the accuracy and technique that has made Nick so good. He’ll loop his punches more than Nick, and I don’t think he’ll hold up as well to the power Gomi presents as Nick did when he faced Gomi in the fight that never happened.

It’s a risky pick, as Diaz will likely outpoint Gomi while striking, but I’ll take Gomi here. I think he’ll hurt Diaz at some point, and I don’t see Diaz being able to take the fight to the mat, either. In what could be a close fight and provide relevant information in the ongoing case study of whether MMA judges will value quality of strikes over quantity of them, Gomi wins a gut-wrenching decision.

Gomi by decision

Rob Broughton vs. Travis Browne

You have to wonder why Browne isn’t an even bigger favorite than Jones or Koscheck. Broughton is simply outgunned in every conceivable area here, from striking technique and power to wrestling and even conditioning.

Browne is nothing less than a specimen, and although he still has some work to do to in order to ascend to the upper ranks of the division, his 6’7″ frame and surprising athleticism will give him time to continue sharpening his skills.

Broughton just has little to offer Browne. You won’t see him muscling Browne around and in order to get in close enough to attempt to do so, he’ll have to navigate through Browne’s heavy strikes. Meanwhile, Browne is unlikely to allow Broughton any time to get comfortable standing up, as Browne should be teeing off on him within the early seconds of the fight. This will be a one-sided bout that might get ugly quickly.

Prediction: Browne by KO/TKO

Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

To me, Koscheck represents an evolution in the kind of welterweight Hughes was in his prime. Though I think he may be more comparable to Frank Trigg, I’ve long thought that Koscheck was just plain better in most area than Hughes.

There are two notable exceptions to this analysis: strength and submission acumen. It’s hard to imagine anyone being considerably stronger than Hughes, and the former multiple-time welterweight champion is also vastly underrated on the mat. In terms of positioning, submission defense and even his ability to set up quality submission attempts, he is excellent.

Koscheck has a wrestling background too, but that’s about where the similarities end. While Hughes has always tried (tried) to have a technically-sound standup game that merely sets up his wrestling, Koscheck has cast aside many of the fundamentals in favor of spamming a powerful overhand right. Hughes scoffed at the idea that Koscheck has more power than him, but I don’t think there’s any question when that Koscheck’s a more powerful striker than he is.

Hughes may have his moments standing, but Koscheck not only will threaten with powerful shots but also has a much better chance at taking this fight to the mat. One of the reasons Hughes has had a hard time evolving is that he has never done a particularly great job at blending his strikes with his takedowns in the way that someone like Georges St. Pierre has. If he wants to take Koscheck down, he has to surprise him, and that just isn’t going to happen.

I was much more intrigued by the notion of Hughes facing Diego Sanchez. I think with the late substitution, anybody without the last name “Koscheck” may just find this to be a bout with a foregone, relatively sobering conclusion.

Prediction: Koscheck by KO/TKO

Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson

I’m not as sour on this fight as many are, as I think that we will be on our toes for the duration of the bout because of the ever-present danger that Rampage provides to his opponents. Between the often-cited “puncher’s chance”, Jones’ own dynamic offense and the fact that we still have seen very little of Jones against elite light heavyweights, this promises to be a must-see fight.

Rampage has done such a good job explaining that Jones has no power, has many holes in his game, and hasn’t earned his position that it would be easy to be swayed by his salesmanship. However, even if one is willing to cast doubt on the merits of Jones, there is also plenty to doubt about Rampage.

I had begun talking myself into a Rampage upset when I realized that there is no definite eventuality to being seriously hurt by a Rampage punch in a 25-minute fight. So, what if Rampage is right? What if Jones can’t hurt him and Rampage hangs around for five rounds, threatening to blast him at any moment? Isn’t it inevitable that Jones gets caught at some point?

No, not if you look at Rampage’s history. Rampage had five rounds to put away Forrest Griffin and Dan Henderson, right? He had three full rounds to destroy Matt Hamill, Lyoto Machida, Keith Jardine and Matt Lindland, didn’t he? How did those guys escape unscathed, when every one of them aside from Hendo has been stopped violently by others with supposedly equal or lesser power compared to Jackson?

The odds simply favor that Jackson won’t catch Jones, and that’s before taking into account that Jones is hard to hit and uses his reach extremely effectively, while Rampage doesn’t. The standard Jones response to Rampage’s allegations of the champ putting a spy in his camp isn’t just funny, it’s accurate: why would he need a spy when Rampage has fought pretty much the same way his entire career?

Rampage still doesn’t bother to effectively check leg kicks and remains a counter puncher who wades in with powerful hooks and uppercuts. He’s got good defensive boxing and will take a takedown if it’s given to him, though he’ll also throw away a takedown opportunity to chase down a chance to slam someone. It’s not exactly rocket science.

So whether Jones has “holes” or not, we won’t likely see Rampage exploit them. Instead, Jones will use his reach to frustrate Rampage and he could even take the former champion down if he wants to, as well. While Rampage’s takedown defense is pretty good, Jones won’t be so naive as to simply shoot out of nowhere and will make sure to set his takedown up in an unpredictable way.

I simply think that Jones will get the best of this one in all of the ways that matter: namely striking accuracy and volume, as well as wrestling. To add to that, Rampage’s cardio may become a problem if Jones can push the pace throughout in the way that he usually does. There’s just one way for Rampage to get his belt back: to knock Jones out. There have been too many times where Rampage wasn’t able to deliver on his knockout guarantees to trust that he will make good on this one, however.

Prediction: Jones by decision

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Tags: Ben Rothwell, Jon Jones, Josh Koscheck, Mark Hunt, Matt Hughes, Nate Diaz, Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson, Rob Broughton, Takanori Gomi, Travis Browne, UFC, UFC 135