UFC 136 Preview

UFC 136 presents one of the best cards we’ve seen in awhile, with entertaining and important fights from top to bottom. We’ve got two title fights, a number one contender bout, a rematch of a controversial fight, and a couple of scraps that should be wildly entertaining for good measure. So, we’ve established that you should watch this card; what can you expect to see? Here’s how I see tomorrow night’s main card fights going down.

Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

This, of course, is a rematch of their controversial bout from The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale that went to Garcia via split decision. It seems both have been out of sorts since that fight, with Phan losing another decision to Mike Brown at UFC 133, while Garcia by submission to “The Korean Zombie”, Chan Sung Jung in a fight that was a rematch to another controversial decision. To make matters worse, Jung used a rarely-seen “twister” to get the tap; it was the first time there’s been a submission via twister in the UFC.

Garcia in particular seems to end up in a lot of close fights: after building his career largely off of submissions and knockouts, he has had an incredible four split decisions in his last seven fights. He’s won three of those four close bouts, which his detractors claim is more of a product of his fighting style than anything. They say that he comes forward with wild punches that generally don’t land, but still score with the judges who are deciding the winner. It seems a fair criticism, although defenders point out that he’s showing aggressiveness with such flurries.

In this bout, I think Phan takes it. Garcia talks about his heavy hands a lot, but he doesn’t exactly knock people out left and right, and Phan’s already stood in front of him for fifteen minutes. Phan is the much more precise striker, and I think he will be careful to limit the occasions where he slugs it out with Garcia to avoid letting the judges see Garcia fighting the way he prefers to. Garcia expects Phan to attempt takedowns, and while I don’t share Garcia’s opinion that Phan is not capable of standing with him (I think Phan already did it once and should have won while doing so), I think Phan does have the option of a takedown.

Phan will likely look to score a couple of takedowns, but mostly because he knows that he needs to win rounds more decisively than in his first encounter with Garcia. Garcia’s often wild punching style will make it much easier for Phan to time his takedowns, and he should be successful with them if he commits fully. I simply think Phan is more capable of out-pointing Garcia in this one than the other way around, and a Garcia finish is too unlikely to count on.

Prediction: Phan by decision

Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon

Guillard has won five in a row (and eight out of his last nine fights) in the UFC, while Lauzon is on a more understated run with four wins in six bouts. They both have something in common, though: explosiveness. Guillard can make something happen in the smallest of instants while standing; Lauzon is just as adept at getting a tap seemingly out of nowhere while on the mat. Put them together and you have a more compelling than usual striker vs. grappler matchup.

I’m not usually a big fan of the supposedly “classic” striker vs. grappler matchup, but when it’s someone who specializes in standup versus someone who specializes in jiu-jitsu rather than wrestling, it’s more compelling. Since there’s a reasonable doubt as to whether Lauzon can get this fight to the mat, it’s not as likely to be anticlimactic as it would be if Guillard was fighting a strong wrestler.

Guillard will vanquish just about anyone in the lightweight division, including Lauzon, who stands with him, while there’s little chance that Guillard can last more than a couple of minutes on the floor with Lauzon. This one is all about where the fight takes place. Even if Lauzon has the edge in wrestling, Guillard is such a great athlete and has improved his defensive wrestling so much that I don’t see Lauzon getting him to the floor…at least not in time. Guillard takes this one in a violent, excellent fight.

Prediction: Guillard by KO/TKO

Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

While Sonnen’s mouth has never quite stopped moving, he hasn’t been active in the cage for 14 months. Since his dramatic loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 117, he has been suspended by the athletic commission and then embroiled in controversy over a real estate scandal. He lost his chance at what might have been an immediate rematch due to his suspension, then lost his chance to be on “The Ultimate Fighter” opposite Michael Bisping later on, as well.

Strangely enough, Sonnen faces one of the only guys he has struggled to say anything bad about: Brian Stann. Stann is a certified badass who fights like a warrior and is a patriotic American (as Sonnen also is) who has served in the military to boot, so Sonnen has pretty much left him alone in the pre-fight smacktalk.

The problem is, I don’t see a whole lot in Stann’s style that tells me that he can successfully do battle with a wrestler on Sonnen’s level.

Stann likes to come forward and throw strikes. A lot of them. He throws them with a type of reckless abandon that makes him seem like a younger, American version of Wanderlei Silva. He’s one of those guys who reminds you that while MMA is a sport, these guys are still in a fight. It’s a refreshing approach and makes him easy to pull for, but also makes him easy prey for someone who is more than happy to take him down over and over through three rounds.

I don’t see Stann defending Sonnen’s takedowns well enough to do what he wants to do. Worse yet, if we’ve learned anything about matchups like this one, it’s that the better striker often is so worried about defending takedowns that he fails to even plant his fight and throw meaningful strikes. Even with a conservative approach that often leads the better wrestler to outstrike the better striker (ie Alves-Story), the striker still ends up getting taken down and loses without ever having really given a good shot at fighting the way he should. That sounds a lot like this fight, sadly.

Prediction: Sonnen by decision

UFC Featherweight Championship Bout
Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian

We all recognize the narrative here. Florian is the guy who has had a couple of title shots (against Sean Sherk and later BJ Penn in the lightweight division), hasn’t capitalized, and now may be getting his last meaningful opportunity at 35 years old against a seemingly unbeatable champion in Aldo. Aldo has been ridiculously dominant throughout his career, though he showed a human side in a surprisingly competitive fight against a gritty Mark Hominick, though Aldo still clearly won the bout.

Can Florian do it? Sure, I suppose he could. The question is whether he will, and that is not a question easily answered. From a technical standpoint, Florian has the chops. He has very good standup technique, mixes his strikes well and while he does not have overpowering strength in his blows, he can do damage quickly via cuts or an accumulation of strikes and has the killer instinct that many fighters lack. Florian also has a very good jiu-jitsu game, though not one that is explosive offensively, and his wrestling has improved greatly over the years.

I don’t buy into Florian “choking”, and the idea is really kind of laughable. He simply ran into a bad style matchup (Sherk), then one of the best fighters ever when he was at his most unbeatable (Penn). I fear this fight may be similar to the Penn one. Aldo is quicker than Florian, and to me, Florian looked a little drained in his first fight at 145 against Diego Nunes. I think Florian has worked hard to come up with an answer for Aldo’s fight-changing leg kicks, but I’m not sure what that strategy will entail. Getting close to Aldo is easier said than done, as we saw when he decimated Urijah Faber, and staying on the outside just means a slow death versus a quick one.

Florian is unlikely to take Aldo down, and I’d be surprised to see him outpoint Aldo on the feet. Florian has to catch lightning in a bottle, and I think that Aldo is even more likely to land a game-changing strike than he is, anyway. Florian looks destined to becoming one of the great MMA fighters to never win a title, though I’d be pleased to be wrong about that.

Prediction: Aldo by KO/TKO

UFC Lightweight Championship
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

Who’d have thought anyone would be excited to see a third installment of these two duking it out? All that changed, of course, with their unforgettable second fight that saw Edgar literally scampering around trying to stay conscious while Maynard pounced on him whenever he could in the first round, followed by Edgar coming out for the subsequent rounds seemingly no worse for wear en route to a draw.

We’ve seen these guys go at it for eight rounds now, and we can safely assume that some things will go a certain way. One thing we don’t know is how the last fight will affect Maynard’s outlook on this one. Will he say to himself, “I almost finished this guy, and this time I will be even more aggressive to make sure he doesn’t survive” or “I wasn’t able to finish him and I used a lot of energy trying to do so, so this time I will be more methodical”? I think he’ll take the first route, not only because it makes more sense but because that’s the kind of guy Maynard is.

What I saw in their last fight, however, was Edgar winning three out of four, maybe four out of four rounds to finish the fight. He did this despite taking a monumental beating in the first round. I don’t think that Maynard was exceedingly tired following the crazy first round, and even if he was a bit worn out from the pace, wasn’t Edgar also at a handicap for getting whooped up on for five minutes?

I expect to see more of what the second fight ended with: Edgar moving around well, being slightly too fast for Maynard and more than slightly too precise. Both fighters could land takedowns in this one; it all depends on who disguises their shot better. The striking, though, favors Edgar, even though Maynard has proved he can land a fight-changing shot. However, hasn’t Edgar proven he can take such a shot? Maybe he loses a round if Maynard tags him, but I think he will take more rounds than Mayanrd will, regardless.

Prediction: Edgar by decision

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Tags: Brian Stann, Chael Sonnen, Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard, Joe Lauzon, Jose Aldo, Kenny Florian, Leonard Garcia, Melvin Guillard, Nam Phan, UFC, UFC 136