UFC 138 Preview

While the criticism on UFC 138′s lineup has been predictable (especially after some of the excellent matchups we’ve had lately), it’s not a throwaway card like most would have you believe. With top ten fighters such as Thiago Alves and Brad Pickett in action, as well as a main event between Chris Leben and Mark Munoz that should provide fireworks, there are a number of reasons to watch.

Plus, it’s free on Spike TV! It’s hard to beat that, right? If you’re still unconvinced, consider that UFC 138 is already guaranteed to go down in history, as it will be the first UFC event to feature a five round non-title fight. Here’s who I expect to win in each of the main card bouts. (As always, all rankings indicated are mine.)

Terry Etim vs. Eddie Faaloloto

Well, um…this is awkward. I mean, I know it’s an event that’s being tape-delayed on Spike for most of us, but Etim vs. Faaloloto? Could we have gotten a less relevant fight?

Etim is a decent enough fighter, but is never going to set the world on fire and wouldn’t get a whiff of a main card in any other situation. This is fairly cynical matchmaking in that it’s clearly produced to get a British fighter a win in front of a pumped up crowd full of Brits. Faaloloto, on the other hand, is just way too green to be taking up a UFC roster spot this early in his career.

However, Faaloloto did show a high workrate against Michael Johnson and should provide an exciting bout for the fans. His grappling looked fairly good, as he was able to stand up after being taken down, and he had some nice, thudding leg kicks, as well.

Faaloloto will unquestionably look to keep this one standing against Etim, who isn’t a fantastic standup fighter. Etim’s rudimentary standup will force him to take Faaloloto down, and I think after wearing him down early on, he’ll finally be able to lock in a sub later on in the fight.

Prediction: Etim by submission

Papy Abedi vs. Thiago Alves (#6 WW)

Abedi drew a tough opponent in his UFC debut in Alves, who has had a tough run since receiving his first title shot, but remains a superlative talent. Abedi has a judo background, but will have a hard time translating that into success against one of the strongest guys in the division. Alves has a reputation for being taken down and controlled, but the only guys who have done so have been excellent MMA grapplers. Abedi certainly hasn’t earned that distinction yet.

In the standup, this will be a much more fun fight for Alves than his other recent outings. He won’t have to worry about takedowns as he did with Rick Story, Jon Fitch or Georges St. Pierre, and Abedi has some raw ability as a standup fighter but will be no match for Alves. We’ll see a lot of heavy, stinging leg kicks that will pave the way for an increasingly one-sided fight. Eventually, Alves finishes this one and reminds us all why he was so highly regarded a couple of years ago.

Prediction: Alves by KO/TKO

Renan “Barao” vs. Brad Pickett (#9 BW)

Barao was good enough, though unspectacular, in his UFC debut against Cole Escovedo. He won the UFC 130 fight by unanimous decision and showed adequate standup along with good top control and submission defense. Though he didn’t show the kind of ability that got him through 27 straight fights without a loss, he’ll have another chance to be a bit more dynamic against the highly-ranked Brad Pickett.

Pickett has been on a nice streak of his own, winning ten of his last eleven fights. Pickett was to face Miguel Torres at UFC 130, but a herniated disc in his back made him drop out of that fight. As such he makes his UFC debut this weekend after a successful WEC run.

Pickett’s wrestling advantage will be huge here. While some may expect him to take Barao down, I don’t think that he needs to do that. He’ll instead simply keep the pressure on and utilize dirty boxing and some clinch work while trying to land good, clean shots from every position. Barao won’t have much of a chance to land his effective leg kicks if Pickett is always coming forward and not settling down at a comfortable kicking range or backing away.

If Pickett does take Barao down, he’ll need to be careful to avoid submission attempts, but again, I see little reason for Pickett to choose that option. I suppose he could get tagged while standing, but it’s an unlikely event and it’s much easier to foresee Pickett just being consistently better en route to a competitive, but comfortable decision win.

Prediction: Pickett by decision

Chris Leben vs. Mark Munoz

Two fighters who stand just outside of my middleweight rankings face off in what should be an enjoyable main event. I don’t know that they will be in a position to take advantage of the extra two rounds afforded to them, but the move to five round non-title main events had to happen sometime, right?

Dare I say that Leben has actually cleaned up his standup a little bit over his last several fights? Sure, he still hangs his chin up in the air as a target for his opponent on a regular basis, but his punches are a little cleaner and tighter than earlier in his career. Munoz actually may be throwing the wilder punches in this one, as he, like many wrestlers, enjoys slangin’ some haymakers in the cage.

Munoz has also improved, though; this is particularly true when looking at how he integrates his takedown attempts into his striking combinations. He doesn’t telegraph his takedowns as much as he did in the past and therefore enjoys increased effectiveness when he does resort to his old wrestling tricks. Furthermore, while Munoz getting caught by a Leben strike is a scary proposition, he has shown the ability to keep his composure when he gets hurt, too.

I expect that Munoz will be smart here and pepper in some takedowns throughout the fight. The takedowns will not only score points with the judges, but also will allow him to plant doubt in Leben’s head and wear him down physically. Leben will have to start thinking about defending takedowns and will be less likely to plant his feet and throw bombs, which certainly works in Munoz’s favor.

While Leben is underrated off of his back both in terms of threatening with submissions and fighting defensively from that position, Munoz is great at maintaining control while looking for openings to strike. It will be a scrappy one and could have some bright spots for Leben, but I think Munoz pulls it out via being a better overall fighter.

Prediction: Munoz by KO/TKO

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Tags: Brad Pickett, Chris Leben, Mark Munoz, Papy Abedi, Renan Barao, Terry Etim, Thiago Alves, UFC, UFC 138