UFC 139 Preview

Another week, another UFC…though the UFC 139 card is definitely no hum-drum affair, with quality bouts to be expected throughout the night. Let’s take a look at the five main card fights which will be aired live on pay-per-view Saturday night, starting with what should be a competitive bout between Stephan Bonnar and Kyle Kingsbury.

As always, all rankings cited are those of Fightmania.com.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Bonnar has carved out a career as a hard-working, gutsy fighter who is a jack of all trades, but a master of none. In that way, he’s kind of a poor man’s Forrest Griffin, though they differ in that Bonnar prefers a more classic boxing style than Griffin’s leg-kick heavy approach.

Meanwhile, Kingsbury has found a groove in the last three years, rattling off four straight wins in the Octagon. Bonnar may not only represent the stiffest test he’s faced, but the most recognizable name, as well. Pair that with the coveted main card slot this fight has received, and this represents a big opportunity for Kingsbury. Of course, it’s also a chance for Bonnar to further prove that he’s got plenty left in the tank, following impressive wins over Krzystof Soszynski and Igor Pokrajac.

Bonnar showed in the Soszynski fight that he can beat an opponent similar to Kingsbury, and you can expect him to use his solid standup technique and maybe even some wrestling to try to win this one. However, Kingsbury is very athletic and will likely win the wrestling battles if and when they occur. In the standup, it’s a lot closer of a battle, though Kingsbury has more power than his opponent.

In a fight like this one that could be very close, I like to look at who has the edge in strength, athleticism, and other areas. That makes me favor Kingsbury. Throw in that Bonnar is easily cut (and judges are easily swayed by cuts), and I can see Kingsbury taking a competitive decision.

Prediction: Kingsbury by decision

Martin Kampmann (#10 WW) vs. Rick Story

Story was the flavor of the month in the welterweight division after upsetting Thiago Alves at UFC 130, but a last-minute replacement took the wind out of his sails not much later, as Story lost to Charlie Brenneman. Brenneman was a bad style matchup, as his dogged determination to getting takedowns and superior wrestling put Story in a tough place throughout the fight. This matchup is a bit more favorable for Story, though Kampmann is a tough fighter, himself.

Kampmann has had to make a career out of fighting opponents who simply wanted to take him to the mat. This will be business as usual then, to an extent. Also, Kampmann has had two controversial losses in a row by split decision to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields. If Story can beat Kampmann decisively, that’s another big feather in Story’s cap.

Kampmann will undoubtedly win the standup. Though he sometimes gets caught and doesn’t have the best defense, it’s doubtful that Story will use his rather basic standup fighting approach to do more than score points and lead into takedowns. Where this fight is decided is when Story shoots in on Kampmann. Can Kampmann stay off the mat? Sometimes he will, but I think Story gets enough takedowns to win a close one.

Prediction: Story by decision

Brian Bowles (#4 BW) vs. Urijah Faber (#2 BW)

Bowles may not be the big name in this matchup, but he’s got a lot going for him besides looking a lot like Dirk Diggler in “Boogie Nights”. His resume is dotted with quality wins (Miguel Torres, Damacio Page, Takeya Mizugaki) and just one loss (to Dominick Cruz, so no shame in that), and he’s got concussive power at 135 pounds that not only poses a danger to his opponents, but to his own hands as well.

He faces another guy who has had trouble with broken hands in the past in Faber. Faber, however, will not be looking to stand and trade for long. Very few men have been able to keep Faber at a distance for long, and he will use his wide hooks and overhand punches to close the distance for takedowns and clinches while trying to wear Bowles down and get him to the mat. If he does, Bowles will have an uphill battle against an opponent who has an uncanny ability to control, improve position, and submit in relatively short order.

Bowles may give Faber some scary moments, but I’ve got Faber here in a fight where he just out-wills an opponent like the Urijah Faber of old used to. This should be a great fight.

Prediction: Faber by submission

Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva

If this was the Silva of 5-6 years ago against a motivated, active Le, this would be a great fight. As it is, this is a fight that had me apprehensive from the word “go”. Silva has shown in his recent appearances that he simply can’t refine his style- at least, not for long. The moment he thinks he smells blood, he goes to the beast mode that made him great for so many years, but which now puts him at considerable risk whenever he fights.

Le is tailor-made for this fight, a pin-point striker and counter puncher who can keep his cool under pressure and pick his spots with patience, precision and just a bit of cruelty, to boot. Watch his fight against Tony Fryklund back in his Strikeforce days for a display of some of the most awe-inspiring striking you’re likely to see at this level, for instance. Le doesn’t just score points, though, he punishes opponents with his kicks.

I’m not going to go into a long recap of the last couple of years of Silva’s career, which have been hard to watch as a guy who was a big Wanderlei fan going back to the Pride days. We all know the story, and though it’s easy to look for reasons for optimism (the Bisping fight, the fact that Leben is one of the hardest punchers in the division), Silva is breaking down in front of our eyes and I have a hunch that this might not be pretty.

Le is a bit of an x-factor because of his inactivity and the fact that we’ve only seen him fight Scott Smith in the last three and a half years. However, Silva is an even bigger question mark due to concerns about his chin, his recent knee problems, and his all-or-nothing approach. I’d be happy to be wrong about this one, but I can’t simply pick Silva due to what he used to be or because I’d like to see him return to form.

Prediction: Le by KO/TKO

Dan Henderson (#5 LHW) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (#3 LHW)

From one question mark to another, now we take a look at Shogun Rua, who has been a mixed bag since coming to the UFC in 2007. Sometimes he looks great, sometimes he looks awful, and many times he just looks okay. It’d be hard to pick anyone over Shogun if you knew he was going to be on top of his game, but who can predict that?

Then you have Dan Henderson, one of the more consistent fighters of all-time, and…well, you know where I’m going with this. Still, let’s go through with it and take a closer look, shall we?

Rua can fight one of two ways. He can come out and swarm on you, overwhelming you en route to an impressive victory, or take the space you give him and pick you apart (as many of us thought he did successfully in the first Lyoto Machida fight). Henderson is not going to allow him to do that, though. He’s a pressure fighter with a sturdy chin who can withstand the early storm and keep coming back. I don’t think Rua is necessarily a front-runner, but he does have a limited gas tank and tends to fade in the face of constant pressure. Being that this is a five-round fight, there’s even more reason to doubt Shogun here.

Henderson’s wrestling really presents an added bonus, here. Should he choose to, he can unquestionably take down Shogun at some point and win some favor with the judges. Shogun is a capable jiu-jitsu player, but Hendo is savvy enough to stay out of trouble while delivering some ground and pound. Then you have one of the most destructive weapons in the history of the sport, Hendo’s right hand. Shogun should, and probably will, look to keep Hendo at bay with consistent leg kicks, but that approach hasn’t slowed Hendo much in the past. This is a great fight, but Hendo is the better overall fighter and presents an approach that Shogun has struggled with in the past, which gives me enough reason to pick him.

Prediction: Henderson by decision

Tags: Brian Bowles, Cung Le, Dan Henderson, Kyle Kingsbury, Martin Kampmann, Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua, Rick Story, Stephan Bonnar, UFC, UFC 139, Urijah Faber, Wanderlei Silva