UFC 141 Preview

Is it literally the biggest UFC fight of all time, as the promotion has been insisting? Well, I think Tim Sylvia and Gan McGee would beg to differ, but I don’t think many of us would rather be paying for a second installment of that short-lived feud than the much-anticipated bout between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem this Friday night, so we’ll let a little hyperbole slide this time. With other great fights on the card as well (Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz stands out), UFC 141 is a fine way to end another calendar year of UFC events.

Jim Hettes vs. Nam Phan

Hettes brings a gaudy record and a win over Alex Caceres (possibly better known as “Bruce Leroy”) in his previous UFC appearance to the cage with him, while Phan earned his first UFC win in three appearances by decisively beating Leonard Garcia in their rematch at UFC 136.

Besides the main event, this may be the hardest fight to call on the main card. I’ve come close to picking both men, but reservations arise in either case. With Hettes, there is the fact that he has faced exactly one fighter- Caceres- that is anywhere near Phan’s talent level. However, Phan has quietly amassed an awful record over the past five years, going 5-7 over that span. Of course, those losses include two split decisions, including one especially dubious one against Garcia, and he nonetheless has been losing to fighters (Mike Brown, Michihiro Omigawa, Gesias Cavalcante, Josh Thomson) the likes of which Hettes has never faced.

Other than, say, Dong Hyun Kim or maybe Manny Gamburyan on the prelims, Hettes provides the best chance of a big upset on the card, in my view. His jiu-jitsu is excellent, and though he may not be an elite wrestler, one could argue that you don’t have to be to wrangle Phan to the mat. Phan has never been submitted, but anyone who watched Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira get his arm snapped or Lyoto Machida get choked out earlier this month knows that there’s a first time for everything.

No, my reason for ultimately going with Phan has to do with composure. Now, it’s completely possible that Hettes was feeling the famed “Octagon jitters” in his fight with Caceres, but he looked sloppy. Phan is better equipped than ever to handle a sloppy fighter, and proved it with a much better performance against Garcia in his second ‘go-round. Expect Hettes to be a little too desperate in all areas, while Phan stays composed and lands beautiful combinations and vicious body shots. Ultimately, I’m just not sure Hettes will ever be in the position to take advantage of his strongest weapon- his jiu-jitsu.

Prediction: Phan by KO/TKO

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Gustafsson is currently one of the better prospects in the organization, and has already won four of five in his young Octagon career. Meanwhile, Matyushenko is somehow a perpetually underrated fighter despite a great resume and wins over the likes of Jason Brilz, Tim Boetsch, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and so on. His fight record is a veritable “who’s who” of MMA’s multiple eras, with names such as Vernon White, Anthony Macias, Travis Fulton, Tito Ortiz, Pedro Rizzo and even Jon Jones appearing. Jones, in fact, is the only fighter to beat Matyushenko in his current run in the UFC. Not too shabby.

Now, Gustafsson definitely has a technical advantage in the standup portion of the bout. He’s quicker and sharper with his techniques and only really has to worry about two things in exchanges: the takedown and conceding a big strike. Matyushenko has intermittently shown- as he did against Jason Brilz- that he does have some power in his hands. Gustafsson must pick his spots, especially early, and make it a finesse fight rather than a brawl.

Because Gustafsson was able to bust up Matt Hamill while avoiding Hamill’s takedowns, I am not so concerned about him being taken down by “The Janitor”. However, while Hamill’s wrestling credentials are better than Matyushenko, when it comes to blending those takedown attempts with other techniques in a seamless way, Matyushenko is far better than Hamill was. Gustafsson is no slouch on the mat, though, and can threaten both with submission attempts and the ability to scramble back to his feet if the fight should go there.

Matyushenko still has something left in the tank, but I think Gustafsson could be something pretty special. This is a fight that a good prospect should win, and I think Gustafsson does so in what may be his toughest test yet.

Prediction: Gustafsson by submission

Jon Fitch (#2 WW) vs. Johny Hendricks

Jon Fitch, the Rodney Dangerfield of mixed martial arts, will hope to get some respect with an impressive win over the very good Johny Hendricks on Friday night. Fitch was denied a rematch with BJ Penn when Penn and the UFC decided that Carlos Condit would make a better opponent for the Hawaiian standout than Fitch would. So, here we are again, with Fitch in a holding pattern while the UFC not-so-secretly hopes for him to lose so that they can build another fresh title contender.

Fitch had to win eight UFC fights in a row to get his first title shot at Georges St. Pierre, and is 5-0-1 in six fights since losing that bout. Yet, there is no talk of Fitch getting in the mix, as he has instead been passed over in favor of a queue that includes Condit and Nick Diaz. Even with St. Pierre out and in interim title on the way, Condit and Diaz will face off for it while Fitch, the #2 welterweight in the world for years now, waits in the wings.

What does Fitch need to do to beat Hendricks and work his way toward the 15-fight undefeated streak he’ll probably need to get a title shot sometime in 2014? He needs to avoid a brawl and time his shots very carefully, first of all. Hendricks is a very good striker with powerful uppercuts that he will unleash at any time there is an opening, after all. Furthermore, there is just no way Fitch, whose striking is very rudimentary even at this point in his career, can stand and exchange wildly with Hendricks.

What makes this bout intriguing is Hendricks’ own wrestling. Hendricks has fought some pretty decent wrestlers, including Charlie Brenneman, without being wrestled to a standstill, but Fitch is a different animal. Outside of GSP himself, no one in the division blends his wrestling techniques into what is needed for MMA better than Fitch does. That’s why I think Fitch gets this one to the mat often enough to earn a competitive, but clear, unanimous decision victory.

Prediction: Fitch by decision

Donald Cerrone (#10 LW) vs. Nate Diaz

What a great bit of matchmaking this is. These are two guys who refuse to give even an inch to their opponents, and I always love seeing who will be the first to bend in such a fight. Furthermore, there’s none of that “striker vs. grappler” nonsense at work here, as both are fairly similarly skilled in all areas, although they have different ways of plying their trades both on the mat and standing up.

When the fight begins, I’ll give Cerrone the advantage standing up. Diaz has been effective with the same high-volume form of striking that his brother is known for, though he prefers to throw in some looping shots as well as the straight punches that Nick likes to mostly stick to. Nate would possibly be even more effective if he used his reach properly by investing in his jab a bit more, and it would keep fighters like Cerrone at a distance. As is, I think Cerrone’s technical, yet aggressive standup will penetrate Diaz’s defense and allow him to land the better, more powerful shots throughout the fight.

Diaz is a very good fighter, but his career has been defined in some ways by allowing his opponents to hang around and get their offense in, which has often led to very close losses via decision. It would be a mistake for him to do the same with Cerrone, and I think we’ll see some of that. Will Cerrone hurt Diaz, who has a great chin? Maybe not seriously, but Diaz won’t hurt Cerrone, either. I don’t know that either man will look for a takedown or could hold the other down for very long, and a jiu-jitsu battle between the two would be very closely-matched (probably favoring Diaz) but could also lead to many stalemates. This should be a very competitive, extremely entertaining bout.

Prediction: Cerrone by decision

Brock Lesnar (#3 HW) vs. Alistair Overeem (#5 HW)

This is your classic “don’t blink” fight, featuring two men who are as likely to eat an average UFC fan as they are to sign an autograph for them. The only way this fight could be more violent than it likely will be is if Dana White tossed a huge slab of meat into the middle of the cage to start the first round. If you like your cage fights violent, tense, and subject to an abrupt ending this is right up your alley.

The central question here is: “Will Lesnar take down Overeem without getting hurt first?” Nothing else really matters. If Lesnar stands with Overeem for any length of time, he will be knocked out, plain and simple. If Overeem stays on the bottom of Lesnar for any length of time, he will be in great danger, as well. Neither man wants to play the other one’s game, and for good reason.

However, I would think that Overeem could survive for a greater period of time in Lesnar’s realm than vice versa. Lesnar has shown against the likes of Frank Mir that he is extremely dangerous from the top position and I doubt Overeem would fare a whole lot better than Mir did. His best bet would be to simply go all-out in pursuit of standing back up or to hold on for dear life and hope the referee starts listening to the boo birds and stands it up quickly.

If Overeem can stuff a takedown or two, though, Lesnar is in a great deal of trouble. We’ve seen him react very amateurishly after being hit hard, ducking his head without answering back or even turning and scampering around the cage in order to clear the cobwebs. A finisher with the skill and power of Overeem will absolutely not allow Lesnar to survive if he is hurt and acts that way.

While Lesnar has one of the best double-leg takedowns in any division of the sport, Overeem is a skilled athlete who can react at a moment’s notice, as well. Don’t be surprised if Lesnar eats a knee on the way in, or an uppercut, for that matter. Furthermore, Lesnar has already had trouble with straight-up boxers, how will he react to being leg kicked or having to worry about knees with concussive power during exchanges or when he’s shooting for a takedown?

One thing that is in Lesnar’s favor is cardio. Overeem was winded from his borefest with Fabricio Werdum, while Lesnar has shown a pretty good gas tank and seems to work extremely hard to get in shape before fights. Questions about Overeem’s training camp, which moved back abruptly to the Netherlands in November when his mother’s health took a turn for the worse, only underline the pre-existing concerns about whether Overeem will be able to go several strong rounds.

However, Overeem doesn’t think this fight will go close to five rounds, and I’m inclined to agree with him. I just don’t think Overeem can survive 25 minutes of being ground to dust by Lesnar’s ground and pound, nor can Lesnar eat 25 minutes worth of knees, punches, elbows and kicks from Overeem. This one could easily go either way, but I can’t help thinking that if Overeem lands one even somewhat solid shot, it’s over.

Prediction: Overeem by KO/TKO

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Tags: Alexander Gustafsson, Alistair Overeem, Brock Lesnar, Donald Cerrone, Jim Hettes, Johny Hendricks, Jon Fitch, Nam Phan, Nate Diaz, UFC, UFC 141, Vladimir Matyushenko